40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I probably would look at winds aloft in this setup..not necessarily srfc maps. You always have gusts much higher. Maybe Irene type winds around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 dr.colby giving a map disco of the 12z euro currently, such a great learning experience Actually tell him that something unusual is happening in that the TC is being used by the model as opposed to a unique baroclinic wave - the trough grabs the TC, uses it, and because of that huge laten heat inject there is a period of hyper intensification rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Frankly ... not intending to wish on the apocalypse but come on ... do those wind products look right for a 940mb low ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You usually don't see the HPC come out with this kind of language this early...keep in mind this is using several of the 00z verbatims. Except on snowstorms that don't verify... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Except on snowstorms that don't verify... lol Hahaaa that's awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well it's nice to see this at 156hrs out, but lots of time left. Well, its been consistent showing the phase...maybe we can increase the chances from like 1% to 3% now at 156 hours out. I've been keeping myself from posting on this too much...looking at how far out it is sometimes gets lost in the obscene looking solution. At least the great blocking is there so its feasible to picture this...not some bizarre solution that defies the synoptic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Anyone know the wind speed units on these wunderground images? I'd assume knots...but you never know. That's my biggest complaint about the EC images on wunderground...never any units in the legend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Actually tell him that something unusual is happening in that I courted a young lady saturday eve, as opposed to residing alone in my recliner - I grabbed the burrito, ingested it it, and because of that huge laten heat inject there is a period of hyper intensification rates, and alas....my fair lady was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Frankly ... not intending to wish on the apocalypse but come on ... do those wind products look right for a 940mb low ?? WRT winds? Wasn't Irene like 950mb at landfall? The winds weren't that impressive away from the IMMEDIATE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Maybe Irene type winds around here? Well maybe a little stronger. I hate to speculate because it's so far out. It's an exotic solution, but it's important not to fall in love with it just yet. We still have a lot of time and variables to work out, but yes a significant solution is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I've been laughing this storm off the past two days...but obviously the chances of some sort of direct impact to SNE are becoming a better possibility it seems with each run. Gotta love the EC...verbatim a 50-55kt storm landfalling around Montauk then making a second landfall in CT somewhere between BDR and Old Saybrook. Kinda makes me want to run out and buy a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 WRT winds? Wasn't Irene like 950mb at landfall? The winds weren't that impressive away from the IMMEDIATE coast. I wouldn't compare anything about this to Irene - two disparate scenarios. Irene was weakening, this thing is bombing - isallobaric wind pulses, tropospheric folding ...it's all got to be ironed out, none of which Irene carried along with her, certainly not as she rotted up the EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I've been laughing this storm off the past two days...but obviously the chances of some sort of direct impact to SNE are becoming a better possibility it seems with each run. Gotta love the EC...verbatim a 50-55kt storm landfalling around Montauk then making a second landfall in CT somewhere between BDR and Old Saybrook. Kinda makes me want to run out and buy a generator. Buzzard's Bay special - ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wouldn't compare anything about this to Irene - two disparate scenarios. Irene was weakening, this thing is bombing - isallobaric wind pulses, tropospheric folding ...it's all got to be ironed out, none of which Irene carried along with her, certainly not as she rotted up the EC This could go further west, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This could go further west, too. True, but surely the chances of that decline with each run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 True, but surely the chances of that decline with each run? I mean west of Irene's track...not relative to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I guess HPC isn't writing up a final discussion today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Anyone know the wind speed units on these wunderground images? I'd assume knots...but you never know. That's my biggest complaint about the EC images on wunderground...never any units in the legend. They do have them labeled. Mouse over"map type" for every image. This is in knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I guess HPC isn't writing up a final discussion today? They're all too busy doing this right now. But thanks for that reminder up there Tip, I didn't even think about how Irene was on her way out and this is tapping into some incredible energy near our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I guess HPC isn't writing up a final discussion today? Haha, i was just scratching my head Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well maybe a little stronger. I hate to speculate because it's so far out. It's an exotic solution, but it's important not to fall in love with it just yet. We still have a lot of time and variables to work out, but yes a significant solution is on the table. Maybe I'd be able to mix down a 35-40mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The Euro shows a prolonged wind event for NY,CT,RI, MA for 30+ hours on this run. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 At least the great blocking is there so its feasible to picture this...not some bizarre solution that defies the synoptic pattern. That's the key right there. We have an unique potential synoptic pattern in place to support a unique solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 They do have them labeled. Mouse over"map type" for every image. This is in knots. Thank you! I've been looking at those maps for over a year thinking about how dumb it is to not have units labeled. Appears I'm the dumb one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Of all the images I've seen today, the Accu weather one takes it - Too many isobars to count right in the LI Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A nice result to that hypothesis right there. Hopefully the PAC doesn't screw around too much. When things keep changing, yet the results remain strikingly similar every run, then you know something is up. This doesn't seem to be sensitive to perturbations to nearly the same degree as most setups are. Doesn't mean there is no sensitivity, of course. But this isn't some model fantasy anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Haha, i was just scratching my head EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. FINAL... ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 just nudge this a little bit SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Kinda weird to see 925mb get down to 5dm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. FINAL... ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. CISCO Pretty strong wording by HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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