dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well it's nice to see this at 156hrs out, but lots of time left. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Two concerns being in the seafood industry for me: 1) I know a ton of small boats planning to make a tuna fishing trip to George's Bank for Thurs-Sat. Anything goes wrong and you're toast. 2) I have a meeting on our oyster farm on Tuesday morning in Osterville with a big restaurant group. Yeah... potential issues for beds, etc. Plus my mom is right on the water in Narr. Bay...ulp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well it's definitely the risk for sure. We'll see what the ensembles do, but the consistency of the euro has been rather significant. This fact is rather alarming in itself, It either scores a major coup or falls on its face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 freebie maps are out on wunderground. looks like 50 kt sustained winds scrape coastal LI and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You usually don't see the HPC come out with this kind of language this early...keep in mind this is using several of the 00z verbatims. PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You can still get the Euro maps on Wunderground, btw. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ It's below 952 at landfall, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Warm seclusion on the Euro...even has tightest winds near the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro buries nrn PA and srn NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's hard but fascinating to imagine that this years October storm may relegate last years to a footnote in many places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You usually don't see the HPC come out with this kind of language this early...keep in mind this is using several of the 00z verbatims. What is the big deal? Potential for a major system in the medium range?? They say that all the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Feet of snow to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Any mets out there, that is the mother of all blocks over southern Greenland. Like 400M above normal. A very solid +3.4 SD anomaly over southern Greenland. Coupled with a seasonably deep, negatively tilted trough swinging through the Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Warm seclusion on the Euro...even has tightest winds near the center. I was just noticing this about the NOGAPs run, too What's terrifying about the NOGAPs solution is that it retrogrades the low down the spine of LI for 6-12 hours, during which there are insane contact wind velocities [probably] drilling a storm surge up the Sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 freebie maps are out on wunderground. looks like 50 kt sustained winds scrape coastal LI and CT Yeah, nothing crazy on those maps, except for coastal areas and right around the low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro says my house is gone Jackpot--just where you want to be 7 days out. Feet of snow to our west Shift it east so we can trick or treat in the snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's hard but fascinating to imagine that this years October storm may relegate last years to a footnote in many places. I just think we have to wait on saying things like that when there may be no storm at all. All the talk about it's going to destroy this place or that, and some place is going to get buried by snow is just fantasy land and I'm still very skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Lol even the euro at 936mb has NBD winds as p field expands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 May knock down the rest of the Rev's oak leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Lol even the euro at 936mb has NBD winds as p field expands Just another rainy day imby....oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 dr.colby giving a map disco of the 12z euro currently, such a great learning experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro buries nrn PA and srn NY #$#%@! elections. (I work for the Board of Elections). If not for that, I would chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro craters to <932mb at 162 hrs. just 6 hours before landfall. Has filled a few millibars by the time it makes landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 calm in the eye..wow..looks more tropical than hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 #$#%@! elections. (I work for the Board of Elections). If not for that, I would chase. It does bring in a ton of warm air, but it's possible a narrow area above 1500ft would get smoked in that setup. Euro snow maps sometimes are weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 come on. you know the winds will be stronger than what those WU maps show with such a deep system. Lol even the euro at 936mb has NBD winds as p field expands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro buries nrn PA and srn NY Last years Oct. 29th event was a foot of snow here in the Hudson valley at least this possible event will be rain. Still can knock a bunch of people out of power like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 come on. you know the winds will be stronger than what those WU maps show with such a deep system. Lol I know. It's an interesting look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I probably would look at winds aloft in this setup..not necessarily srfc maps. You always have gusts much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 dr.colby giving a map disco of the 12z euro currently, such a great learning experience Tell him John says hi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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