dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Noel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think it might be a more likely scenario than a phase. If the trough goes negative, something will probably happen along the coast. It still could be the phase if the timing is right but with phasing timing is everything. I'm just looking the negative tilt of the trough, diffluence developing over the Mid-Atlantic along with a "2ndary" HFC tracking from WVA/VA; this all leads to me think/believe that cyclogenesis would have to occur on the coast. I agree totally Wes on poss phase but the timing has to be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Nogaps direct hit again into Li and then CT. SSS usually rules the roost. Alarms should be going off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its not just a 400m anomly near Greenland...there's one near the Bering Straight too...dual 400m blocks will cause some model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its not just a 400m anomly near Greenland...there's one near the Bering Straight too...dual 400m blocks will cause some model chaos. I know..so anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its not just a 400m anomly near Greenland...there's one near the Bering Straight too...dual 400m blocks will cause some model chaos. It actually retros into a west based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z Euro wants to bring sandy outer bands close to the EC of florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 nogaps has sandy starting here in just under 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 is this the model run that drops it and freaks everyone out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 is this the model run that drops it and freaks everyone out? If not now that shoe will drop soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 WSI on board for crush @WSI_Energy: Sandy- east coast disaster or fish storm?? Still leaning against the GFS on this one here at WSI. Batten the hatches. #perfectstormpart2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The flow is more progressive this go around out west. Flatter ridge, so not sure if it will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 is this the model run that drops it and freaks everyone out? i am sitting at the edge of the tobin waiting for the 144 hr euro prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The flow is more progressive this go around out west. Flatter ridge, so not sure if it will do it. I think it'll be just enough for a capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Trough not as sharp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i am sitting at the edge of the tobin waiting for the 144 hr euro prog Wait for the 48 hour euro prog before waiting anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 EurO a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think it'll be just enough for a capture. It's better now. Original S/W just strong enough in the last two frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 what a major difference across the west. this is irritating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 She's coming. Not viewing the model data, theoretically, this could lend itself to a further north capture this run....more progressive, not as sharp...good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I know its still 6 days out...but what is this, 5 or 6 straight Euro runs with a hit to some extent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BOOM. Black out for Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Interesting even with the differences out west, still a capture thanks to potent original S/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A smidge south of the BM and still moving n/nnw at 156...too many contours to count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A smidge south of the BM and still moving north at 156...too many contours to count. Yup, I was just trying though packed to tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No way this holds for the next 144 hours.....maybe it will happen...but there will be at least a cardiac run or three.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A smidge south of the BM and still moving n/nnw at 156...too many contours to count. Just south of BID at hr 162, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 huge hit...somewhere near BID-mvy 162...can't count the contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 this is a red flag for sure!! http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_ensmodel.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Interesting even with the differences out west, still a capture thanks to potent original S/W. Do you think it could be as discussed previously, that the best baroclinic zone for SLP development will be further W, hence the capture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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