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Who Needs Hazel When You Have Sandy


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john, i completely agree with your above statement but i beleive it is no longer relevant to this situaton, because this is not one model showing a bomb 9/10 days out anymore

This is several models for several runs showing a very deep system and were now at day (6.5) or so , that is why i'm thinking it's time to think a powerful storm is likely and a powerful phased beast is nearing 50/50 and that with all the phasing on the models it doesn't seem like a pipe dream that a phase would occur at this point. you may agree with that , i'm not clear. I don't understand meteorology well enuf to realize if the better shot of this coming undone (the phase) is a weaker or poorly positioned short wave in the ohio /tenn valley or sandy scotting OTS but i think either way i think using the day 9/10 ...model must be on crack toss, is not valid in the face of multiple models for multiple runs showing this, perhaps there is a better reason to be very skeptic now, but i'm not aware of it fully, i just hope it is not politcally correctness or people not wanting to "be wrong" i.e overly protecting one's expecations...b'c i think while some often tout "managing expecations" they are over managed some times as well.

Consistency outside of day 3 doesn't do much for me....aside from flagging general potential.

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Consistency outside of day 3 doesn't do much for me....aside from flagging general potential.

i would say..., that flag is waving very violently

and i would say if this were a winter storm and my concern was for snowfall then i would not have much confidence in snowfall outside of 3 days lead time, but from a perspective of coastal flooding, wind damage, in the NE and high elevation snows somewhere west or SW of New eng it is becoming likely....from a perspective similar to what bob butts just said. when's the last time you saw so many models show such a deep storm for so many runs this far out? those that say it doesn't matter i think are just overly protective of managing their expectations (not saying that's you)

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A little better with the trough in the US for now at hr 90, but not sure what to make of the NATL low.

Yeah, certainly an interesting feature. If you look at the 6z GFS, it acts as a displaced 50/50 that ends up meandering southward and pushing Sandy OTS.

I think for a landfall, we want it more towards the actual 50/50 location rather than SE of Nova Scotia where it would only act to get in the way.

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You know its a rare setup when you start talking about back door warm fronts

Lol yeah, this entire event is crazy.

Depending on the track, I do think some winter weather is possible for Central NY down through PA. You have to remember that thickness is going to be low near the center of the ULL and with intense precip, we could cool the column enough to get some cement like snow, especially for the higher elevations.

Way to early to call, but just food for thought.

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Is it even possible to have two lows like that so close to each other in the Atlantic?

I'm stuck at hour 114... to me it looks like the northern "lobe" of the NATL low is going to swing back around and likely pick up Sandy?

The NATL low scoots out just in time. For a while I was thinking they may interact somehow.

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