40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 john, i completely agree with your above statement but i beleive it is no longer relevant to this situaton, because this is not one model showing a bomb 9/10 days out anymore This is several models for several runs showing a very deep system and were now at day (6.5) or so , that is why i'm thinking it's time to think a powerful storm is likely and a powerful phased beast is nearing 50/50 and that with all the phasing on the models it doesn't seem like a pipe dream that a phase would occur at this point. you may agree with that , i'm not clear. I don't understand meteorology well enuf to realize if the better shot of this coming undone (the phase) is a weaker or poorly positioned short wave in the ohio /tenn valley or sandy scotting OTS but i think either way i think using the day 9/10 ...model must be on crack toss, is not valid in the face of multiple models for multiple runs showing this, perhaps there is a better reason to be very skeptic now, but i'm not aware of it fully, i just hope it is not politcally correctness or people not wanting to "be wrong" i.e overly protecting one's expecations...b'c i think while some often tout "managing expecations" they are over managed some times as well. Consistency outside of day 3 doesn't do much for me....aside from flagging general potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A good consensus of NHC's models have this thing going OTS towards BDA which for the 256784 time is largely GFS based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A good consensus of NHC's models have this thing going OTS towards BDA Tropical models are not proper for forecasting a transitioning east coast tropical/winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Consistency outside of day 3 doesn't do much for me....aside from flagging general potential. And when was the last time you saw such a consistent signal like this? You can "flag general potential" but you must also admit it's highly unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Consistency outside of day 3 doesn't do much for me....aside from flagging general potential. i would say..., that flag is waving very violently and i would say if this were a winter storm and my concern was for snowfall then i would not have much confidence in snowfall outside of 3 days lead time, but from a perspective of coastal flooding, wind damage, in the NE and high elevation snows somewhere west or SW of New eng it is becoming likely....from a perspective similar to what bob butts just said. when's the last time you saw so many models show such a deep storm for so many runs this far out? those that say it doesn't matter i think are just overly protective of managing their expectations (not saying that's you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A little better with the trough in the US for now at hr 90, but not sure what to make of the NATL low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A little better with the trough in the US for now at hr 90, but not sure what to make of the NATL low. Yeah noted, I think we see a shift west from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 are there sights further ahead then hr 102 or SO (for 12z gfs) . i use alan haufman's link . just curious and excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A little better with the trough in the US for now at hr 90, but not sure what to make of the NATL low. Yeah, certainly an interesting feature. If you look at the 6z GFS, it acts as a displaced 50/50 that ends up meandering southward and pushing Sandy OTS. I think for a landfall, we want it more towards the actual 50/50 location rather than SE of Nova Scotia where it would only act to get in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A little better with the trough in the US for now at hr 90, but not sure what to make of the NATL low. N. Atlantic ULL is retrograding S & W. Just looks like the system wants to shoot up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 are there sights further ahead then hr 102 or SO (for 12z gfs) . i use alan haufman's link . just curious and excited lol SV for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 indeed. BUF would even get into the action..but would turn back over to rain as the warm front backed in from the northeast. You know its a rare setup when you start talking about back door warm fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You know its a rare setup when you start talking about back door warm fronts Lol yeah, this entire event is crazy. Depending on the track, I do think some winter weather is possible for Central NY down through PA. You have to remember that thickness is going to be low near the center of the ULL and with intense precip, we could cool the column enough to get some cement like snow, especially for the higher elevations. Way to early to call, but just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still OTS at hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough is definitely more amplified, and the block looks stronger, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Some improvements on the GFS. Trough progression is much faster, at 6z the trough was way to slow to catch Sandy, but now not only is the trough further east, but Sandy has shifted a touch NW. Should be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Is it even possible to have two lows like that so close to each other in the Atlantic? Still OTS at hr 126. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Fujiwarwa incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still OTS at hr 126. I'm stuck at hour 114... to me it looks like the northern "lobe" of the NATL low is going to swing back around and likely pick up Sandy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Still OTS at hr 126. But, some improvement noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm stuck at hour 114... to me it looks like the northern "lobe" of the NATL low is going to swing back around and likely pick up Sandy? Im at 138 and shes OTS Trough is better, storm is still too far east for anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Is it even possible to have two lows like that so close to each other in the Atlantic? I'm stuck at hour 114... to me it looks like the northern "lobe" of the NATL low is going to swing back around and likely pick up Sandy? The NATL low scoots out just in time. For a while I was thinking they may interact somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 But, some improvement noted. Trough was a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 That was close. Swing and a miss tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looks like a little inv trough over the maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lets see how the ensembles look , that i think could be important. ryan you noted that 6z gfs ens look'd improved ,right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Matt noyes starting to hit on the potential impacts: http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2012/10/tuesday-update-predictability-increases-for-sunday-to-tuesday-timeframe-powerful-coastal-storm-still.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The EC trough is still not sharp enough in this run, In fact it may have been slightly less sharper than 06z. I thought the flow out west was a little better though, so maybe it's just noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 eh, it's a schit run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think though the overall synoptic pattern from the GOA to the EC looked a bit better overall...it was more or less a product of Sandy drifting NE and just missing the S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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