ORH_wxman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 00z ECMWF ensembles were fairly impressive for 7 days out...but we have a long long ways to go with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nothing wrong with a good ol Nor Easter in October either Except when it's the only snow storm of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 some of those GFES tracks hit boston from practically the ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro is a big snowstorm for NW Pa lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the euro is right I might wish I would've gone to Penn State... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the euro is right I might wish I would've gone to Penn State... If the Euro is right (which isn't likely IMO), I think anyone who doesn't live there will consider themselves very lucky as it will be a disaster zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro is a big snowstorm for NW Pa lol. BFD special right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If the euro is right I might wish I would've gone to Penn State... Three feet of plastering snow would be absolutely devastating to the region. I remember late Oct 2005 when the Wilma-hybrid storm struck and even though we had a few inches of snow at lower valley elevations there was a good amount of tree damage. The region would likely be incapacitated due to property and tree damage with the kind of snow the GGEM/Euro are printing. And the snow would come with howling winds to make it even more devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BFD special right there. lol phrasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Feet for DC Balt while you guys are under cane conditions. I'll take that a scenario like that, however possible. I'm more intrigued about the strength of the system at this point rather than track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Interesting read... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 959 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS A SUBTROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BFD special right there. indeed. BUF would even get into the action..but would turn back over to rain as the warm front backed in from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Waiting on those HPC updated maps to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 indeed. BUF would even get into the action..but would turn back over to rain as the warm front backed in from the northeast. yeah wed even get a good 1-2 ft lmfao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This isn't meant as a Weenie post but did anyone see we had a flare in the suns activity. I'm a complete noob in the sun activity area. What kind of effect does this activity have on weather systems etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 This isn't meant as a Weenie post but did anyone see we had a flare in the suns activity. I'm a complete noob in the sun activity area. What kind of effect does this activity have on weather systems etc? Although it was an X-class flare, it was only an X1 and not entirely earth-directed. However, no one really knows how much individual flares effect (if at all) the atmosphere from a meteorological standpoint. The sunspot responsible for the X1 is turning more towards Earth, so any future flares it produces will impact us more directly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 man - post mortem on this thing is going to be like a heroin crash - considering, your still talking 4 or 5 weeks until more legit snow chances kick in and the pattern post apocalypses almost always goes benign, ...seemingly for weeks on endless ennui. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 if models dont' back down i wonder what day we go into the always exciting "storm mode" its awfully interesting to me that we have a large amount of consesnsus that something major is going to happen , now 6-7 days away , amongst most models (and some gfs ens) yet there is so still so much disbelief ...and let me say that i get that "models are generally not very reliable at day 6/7. yes things can change but givin models consistently spitting out very strong LP's i certainly don't remember MANY times this many models show'd such a potent storm for so many runs at such a long timeframe and nothing happened. heck i can't rememeber this many models showing something so big this far out. that is why my skeptisim is waning by the model run. edit just read, one met out of texas i follow thinks there's a "good chance this could hook nw in sne mon/tues as a large extratropical storm" and he is usually VERY conservative. I think esp. *if models hold on to this today as a bomb of some sort it's time to accept is likey a large powerful storm will LIKELY impact the NE" just my opinion. but it's based on the fact that many models for many runs have shown a bomb and now models are converging on a time frame (mon/tues) and while models are *generally* poor at 6/7 days out..when you have so many showing something so strong, it is cause for more than pause, or am i wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Eh, sufficed it is to say, wouldn't this be awesome as a straight up cold core deal in early February. Forget about all this 'will it phase' stuff - which frankly I'm tired of. get on with it! It would be fun if this happened with a 1045mb high NNW of Maine - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Eh, sufficed it is to say, wouldn't this be awesome as a straight up cold core deal in early February. Forget about all this 'will it phase' stuff - which frankly I'm tired of. get on with it! It would be fun if this happened with a 1045mb high NNW of Maine - That is some sexy porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 man - post mortem on this thing is going to be like a heroin crash - considering, your still talking 4 or 5 weeks until more legit snow chances kick in and the pattern post apocalypses almost always goes benign, ...seemingly for weeks on endless ennui. you might want to read HMs post in the Winter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That is some sexy porn Jim's back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 if models dont' back down i wonder what day we go into the always exciting "storm mode" its awfully interesting to me that we have a large amount of consesnsus that something major is going to happen , now 6-7 days away , amongst most models (and some gfs ens) yet there is so still so much disbelief ...and let me say that i get that "models are generally not very reliable at day 6/7. yes things can change but givin models consistently spitting out very strong LP's i certainly don't remember MANY times this many models show'd such a potent storm for so many runs at such a long timeframe and nothing happened. heck i can't rememeber this many models showing something so big this far out. that is why my skeptisim is waning by the model run. It's as much a sociological question as a science one... Here, how many times has a D10 system popped up that would make a comet impact blush? Then, have it verify merely as a storm luster's disappointed WINDEX event 10 days later ?? Answer: Like, every time! ...Well, uber rarely does any D10 prominence make to home - that much is an axiom. We're just biding time regarding this, in disbelief, because those lessons have taught us that BS dominates the extended ranges almost, what ... 10::1 or more? That performance doesn't lend to trusting systems in that range, of course. However, what's going on here is sort of different. You have reasons, as unusual as it may be, to lend some confidence: 1) The big picture. The teleconnectors have been banging, loudly, for a negative geopotential anomaly into the OV and MA lat/lons for well over a week, centered on the time frames in question. That canvas sits very well with more amplitude artwork, making the GFS notions appear anomalous relative to that signal and thus perhaps less stable. The fact that 2 days ago, the 12z run of the GFS was pretty darn close to the GGEM/Euro/NOGAPS blend, but then abruptly dropped it is dubious and telling. I can go into all kinds of what-ifs regarding data assimilation issues over the Pacific, but that may gloss eyes. To put it tersely, the Euro has this 4-D variable system designed to be better estimations for data gaps in the grid - and I believe I read that they sell their inizializations in part to the GGEM folk'. I find it intriguing, then, that these runs are in bed together and refuse to give it up until they apparently have that baby on the upper MA and NE region. 2) There is a stigma about admitting that - which is more the sociological aspect endemic to the culture on the web - certainly on American. It's like ...fearing being a pariah or something. It's probably why I am less popular on this forum, because I don't care. I really don't - I say it like it is, or I see it. That sometimes falls favorably, other times, excites flames. Oh well - those that can't take reality can go f them selves. I'm too heady to cave into that provincial lust that can't handle the truth. That said, just because the existence of #1 is there, and one says it, shouldn't incur the wrath of the popular, INCORRECT, voice. I think there is also some popularity in making this statement: "That is irresponsible for this time range", that comes before reason, observation, or consideration for the substantiation of the statement they are attempting to impugn. Dumb. ... # 2 is a rant 3) As I painstakingly threaded the other night, there is a strong signal for important coastal cyclogenesis, regardless of whether the myopic distraction of whether this thing gets a TC involved, or not. It's not like the interval would fail if the latter doesn't happen. These two are separate phenomenon; but, I sense that folks have their hearts set on a trough using the TC, its self, as the negative tilted trough's drill point, and would feel cheated if a possible once in history type deal went in favor of the House. I dunno - the chance of that perfect phase scenario is like getting the Ace you need off a 5 deck shoe. Pretty remote. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 you might want to read HMs post in the Winter thread I didn't mean that as forecast - haha. no just sayin'. Maybe this year can trump climo - or not. sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hpc surface prog has sandy going over sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's as much a sociological question as a science one... Here, how many times has a D10 system popped up that would make a comet impact blush? Then, have it verify merely as a storm luster's disappointed WINDEX event 10 days later ?? Answer: Like, every time! ...Well, uber rarely does any D10 prominence make to home - that much is an axiom. We're just biding time regarding this, in disbelief, because those lessons have taught us that BS dominates the extended ranges almost, what ... 10::1 or more? That performance doesn't lend to trusting systems in that range, of course. john, i completely agree with your above statement but i beleive it is no longer relevant to this situaton, because this is not one model showing a bomb 9/10 days out anymore This is several models for several runs showing a very deep system and were now at day (6.5) or so , that is why i'm thinking it's time to think a powerful storm is likely and a powerful phased beast is nearing 50/50 and that with all the phasing on the models it doesn't seem like a pipe dream that a phase would occur at this point. you may agree with that , i'm not clear. I don't understand meteorology well enuf to realize if the better shot of this coming undone (the phase) is a weaker or poorly positioned short wave in the ohio /tenn valley or sandy scotting OTS but i think either way i think using the day 9/10 ...model must be on crack toss, is not valid in the face of multiple models for multiple runs showing this, perhaps there is a better reason to be very skeptic now, but i'm not aware of it fully, i just hope it is not politcally correctness or people not wanting to "be wrong" i.e overly protecting one's expecations...b'c i think while some often tout "managing expecations" they are over managed some times as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Jim's back! whats up jay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hpc surface prog has sandy going over sne Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A good consensus of NHC's models have this thing going OTS towards BDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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