ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro snow maps are just fantasy at this range I have no shame; does anyone have a Euro snowfall map? State College looks to be the epicenter of heavy snowfwall on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 very good agreement by the American / high-res tropical models: http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_model.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 im guessing you didnt look at the ensembles then very good agreement by the American / high-res tropical models: http://icons-ak.wund...01218_model.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 im guessing you didnt look at the ensembles then And I think I saw someone post that the tropical models are GFS based... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We mentioned this before, but a possibility exists where Sandy escapes east, however an inv trough moves up with maybe a wave developing on it to give us a nor'easter. A possibility anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Purely for kicks... snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We mentioned this before, but a possibility exists where Sandy escapes east, however an inv trough moves up with maybe a wave developing on it to give us a nor'easter. A possibility anyways. I would be willing to wager a scenario like this is more likely than a complete phase and major bomb something the ggem shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 very good agreement by the American / high-res tropical models: http://icons-ak.wund...01218_model.gif The tropical models and the GFS you mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Adding to the ensemble thing, there was a significant shift west in all but maybe 2 GFS ensembles from 00z to 06z this morning. Here is the difference from 00z at 90hr and 06z at 84hr: This was posted in the main thread....figured I would re-post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I would be willing to wager a scenario like this is more likely than a complete phase and major bomb something the ggem shows. not just the ggem.. Euro and Nogaps also right? maybe the NAM soon, some needs to take Kevin's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 not just the ggem.. Euro and Nogaps also right? maybe the NAM soon, some needs to take Kevin's place. When will be able to post again. Some of his posts were getting old...but now that I haven't seen them for 15 hours I realize I kinda miss them lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We mentioned this before, but a possibility exists where Sandy escapes east, however an inv trough moves up with maybe a wave developing on it to give us a nor'easter. A possibility anyways. I honestly think that's a more likely scenario. downstream blocking supports a good nor-easter, especially true if we can get a semblance of a ridge out west to help out...sandy doesnt need to get sucked up to get a great fall storm here. I just cant believe how ridiculous these model runs have been running away with these 930-940mb solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I would be willing to wager a scenario like this is more likely than a complete phase and major bomb something the ggem shows. with the GGEM/NOGAPS/EURO on board we need to prepare for major major damage.. lol.. someone needs to fill in for Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When will be able to post again. Some of his posts were getting old...but now that I haven't seen them for 15 hours I realize I kinda miss them lol don't know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 6z ensembles are west of 0z im guessing the 12z gfs will come west but well see Sandy is still to far out and anything can happen not just the ggem.. Euro and Nogaps also right? maybe the NAM soon, some needs to take Kevin's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think the position and strength of the closed mid-level low forecast to develop over Newfoundland in the next few days may determine whether Sandy is captured by the trough or escapes out to sea. The 00z GFS has the low farther west than the Euro putting Sandy under a stronger westerly flow and allowing it to track to the east. Since the low is farther east in the Euro depiction, Sandy is able to track more northward around the ridge to its east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On a serious note, I'm still surprised this is still a threat, but we've all seen it before and fully understand not to overhype the situation, I appreciate all the great input from the great METS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 6z gfdl is west of 0z and by a good amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I honestly think that's a more likely scenario. downstream blocking supports a good nor-easter, especially true if we can get a semblance of a ridge out west to help out...sandy doesnt need to get sucked up to get a great fall storm here. I just cant believe how ridiculous these model runs have been running away with these 930-940mb solutions. Yeah complete bombs. Entertaining..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Freebie ECMWF Ensembles Mean looks pretty solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We mentioned this before, but a possibility exists where Sandy escapes east, however an inv trough moves up with maybe a wave developing on it to give us a nor'easter. A possibility anyways. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nice spread... NC or Africa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 50/50 split about...^^^^ that's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanbos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 6z gfdl is west of 0z and by a good amount but then it hooks right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just saying... 984 mb is closed isobar. ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 50/50 split about...^^^^ that's an improvement. It does seem as though more ensemble members are sending it toward the US east coast. Still a long way to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 We mentioned this before, but a possibility exists where Sandy escapes east, however an inv trough moves up with maybe a wave developing on it to give us a nor'easter. A possibility anyways. Nothing wrong with a good ol Nor Easter in October either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mad River Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nice spread... NC or Africa How many more model runs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 How many more model runs?? 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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