yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If you thought the 12z CMC was crazy, wait until you see the 0z CMC... gets down to 930mb, strikes Long Island with 939mb and moves on top of NYC. Posting pics shortly So it pulls this back at 144 due west? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Pics of 0z run... still goes crazy with the deepening of the storm although the storm gets further east and north before retrograding, this time reaching NYC instead of SNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh Canada. The GEFS have some members that seem to want to pull back Sandy too, but the mean is still OTS. Again, oh so close with that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Tonights GGEM is brought to you by Scorpion of Mortal Kombat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's 'The Day After Tomorrow' yaaaaay but omg Halloween would be totally ruined it would probably still be raining... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its amazing to me how many runs of the Canadian have shown this solution (im ignoring the low pressure readings). Even though this run scooted a bit east before capture, its still captured the cyclone. Oh Canada. The GEFS have some members that seem to want to pull back Sandy too, but the mean is still OTS. Again, oh so close with that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Its amazing to me how many runs of the Canadian have shown this solution (im ignoring the low pressure readings). Even though this run scooted a bit east before capture, its still captured the cyclone. That trough in the Plains is pretty deep and really goes negative. It does everything it can to grab it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That last-second shortwave we were talking about earlier on the GFS is a whole other beast on the Canadian...just rips south and east through the TN Valley, off the Southeast Coast, and tugs Sandy back to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Looking at the pattern in the Atlantic its almost like it would crawl east even if the trough is slower or not as deep and then capture later? That trough in the Plains is pretty deep and really goes negative. It does everything it can to grab it...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Oh Canada. The GEFS have some members that seem to want to pull back Sandy too, but the mean is still OTS. Again, oh so close with that trough. I wonder how many times this sentence will be displayed over the next 3-4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 ...and then came the Nogaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 i hope that modeled short wave cutting thru OHIO/TENN valley continues for the next few days to look to be a beast. IF the atlantic is really THAAT back'd up i would think that would allow a longer period of potential time for a strong shortwave diving SE to be able to capture "sandy" who may not be moving that fast prior to potential capture. were starting to creep out of la la land on some model time frame's. ....accept on the 12z euro......the slowest solution....still well into la la land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 0z ECM ditches its 12z run solution and goes with the 1st shortwave... clearly there's no hope of a consensus anytime soon. Hour 144 has a strong low (I'm not even going to bother with the min pressure) east of NC and south of Long Island which I assume then starts to curve more north as it phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 0z ECM ditches its 12z run solution and goes with the 1st shortwave... clearly there's no hope of a consensus anytime soon. Hour 144 has a strong low (I'm not even going to bother with the min pressure) east of NC and south of Long Island which I assume then starts to curve more north then NE as it phases. You probably mean curves north then northwest as it phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Euro has it almost to Boston and swinging NW and cutoff to meander around for a few days. Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 You probably mean curves north then northwest as it phases? Yeah, it was a typo. I meant to say it curves north then NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I can't believe the tweets JB is throwing out there. Completely irresponsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Weatherfella, these are the setups that if they work are truely historic. I always say the only way to get a true, intense tropical system up here is if you have a strong trough and have something coming in from the south or southeast. Phase or not to phase will be the question. Love nights like this but still so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC ens mean right into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC ens mean right into SNE. yeah and judging by the mean, would think there are deep/strong members on western flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC ens mean right into SNE.. Still looking good, another fun day ahead. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 looks like the 6z gfs is going to be alot better if you want something up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I am going to bed after this post but UK at face value a trough over Eastern US sfc and aloft a lot of rain 120-144 hours @ 144 hours (from 00z tonight) Hybrid "Sandy" approx midway between BDA and Yarmouth,NS The entertainment continues at least for another day. What/where is BDA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The entertainment continues at least for another day. What/where is BDA? BDA would be Bermuda, Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 6z gfs started off better but still couldnt do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Persistent little bugger. I would have thought it would have backed down a bit overnight. Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 BDA would be Bermuda, Mike. Thanks. It would be nice if we can get some movement to consensus today--but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The global's don't seem to backing down and it looks like the GFS has taken a couple steps towards them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The global's don't seem to backing down and it looks like the GFS has taken a couple steps towards them I agree on the steps taken by the GFS. But, we're stil pretty far from consensus on things--as one would expect this far out. I keep reminding myself that this is still a long ways out and minor things now can have major implications over the course of 5-7 days. But, I guess that's where the fun in watching all of this stuff lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I have no shame; does anyone have a Euro snowfall map? State College looks to be the epicenter of heavy snowfwall on the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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