SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When comparing to the 12z run, Sandy is further west and the trough is trying to pick it up. As others have said, probably too late but is the GFS right on Sandy being to far east to begin with? Is the GFS right with the Pacific and N. Atlantic. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It looks like by 150 the phase is starting... but Sandy is just too far east this run to be pulled back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough in the Plains is better this go around. Not as progressive and flat..and looks closer to EC ensemble IMO. Bur Sandy is pretty far east at this point. More food for thought....just saying A stronger Sandy could/would make for a stronger ridge to the NNE-NE. Night folks...I think we'll be doing this Bull-o-knee for at least the next 2 nights maybe even 3. Been fun...for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well when you guys see the hr 150 prog, it took a step towards the euro with the s/w trying to dig last minute, just that the storm is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A good deal more digging in the eastern trough at 147. Sandy also a smidge NW of 18z. Definitely looking better for a phase but it looks like it may just miss looking at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 almost seems like the gfs is about to pull a 12z euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hmmm...stay up for euro or go to bed? when is it - 1:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 More food for thought....just saying A stronger Sandy could/would make for a stronger ridge to the NNE-NE. Night folks...I think we'll be doing this Bull-o-knee for at least the next 2 nights maybe even 3. Been fun...for me Yeah that can happen, although I think that is reserved for storms that become beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 almost seems like the gfs is about to pull a 12z euro solution It would need a hell of a reverse course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That would have done it, if Sandy was further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hmmm...stay up for euro or go to bed? when is it - 1:30? Starts running about 1:50...I would go to bed. Probably within range at about 2:25-2:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's a nice change of pace.. Out west looked better, but thr NaTl shifted east a bit more, allowing a her to slide a out east more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That would have done it, if Sandy was further west. weaken the first s/w on sat some more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Starts running about 1:50...I would go to bed. Probably within range at about 2:25-2:30. ok thx - have a good night everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That would have done it, if Sandy was further west. its a step in the right direction. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Sandy is moving at an amazing zero miles per hour, or stationary. Surf and deadly rip currents are there regardless, from the looks of it now. This is going to be a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Im looking at this and quite surprised how much east movement there is early on. I guess the ridge is weak enough to its north but the S/w over the central US is pretty far away. <> No im not saying what the GFS is showing isnt possible but I am just a bit surprised at the eastward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hmmm...stay up for euro or go to bed? when is it - 1:30? Probly wont know all the details until about 2:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That would have done it, if Sandy was further west. That euro s/w came out of nowhere. Big change from the 18z and big changes are ahead. This thread is loaded with people right now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That was fun....how many more model runs? It's the thrill of the chase. I can't deny it With that smile on my face Oh It's not the kill It's the thrill of the chase Feel it coming It's knocking at the door You know it's no good running Now It's knockin' at your door Knockin' at your back door... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well regardless the GFS has unsettled weather across New England on Monday. Looks like a pre-frontral trough sets up just east of SNE throwing back moisture interacting with the Arctic front. Not a great pressure gradient but enough so to probably enhance the potential for gusty winds. Also...perhaps some LES snow showers across portions of upstate NY behind the front? Maine though would be in for quite a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nice inverted trof at 180 bringing tropical moisture into Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Fujiwara effect ongoing 204-250? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The 18zGFS had this heading for Europe while the 0ZGFS has this landfalling in eastern Nova Scotia thats a huge shift west but thats in the 10 day range which this will probably change many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 00z Euro ... one perk of central time zone ... Alaska was way better lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That piece of energy coming over the block in Alaska helps knock down the western ridge. Every other global model retrogrades under the block, keeping the WRN ridge partially intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GGEM has Sandy upper 970s in N Bahamas area at 96 -- http://www.weatherof...ast/134_100.gif But its further east than where 12z had it by a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I am going to bed after this post but UK at face value a trough over Eastern US sfc and aloft a lot of rain 120-144 hours @ 144 hours (from 00z tonight) Hybrid "Sandy" approx midway between BDA and Yarmouth,NS BUT Looking at 24 hr 500 millibar HEIGHT CHANGE CENTERS totally different : Sandy cannot be that far east due to HUGE 24 hour HEIGHT rises and I do mean HUGE.... from east of Newfyland southward to east opf Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 lets see if the euro speeds this up a good 18-24 hrs on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If you thought the 12z CMC was crazy, wait until you see the 0z CMC... gets down to 930mb, strikes Long Island with 939mb and moves on top of NYC. Posting pics shortly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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