lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ridging out west appears to be coming in a bit stronger at hr 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If this pulls a Wilma, which is of course aggressively saying something, would cause Sandy to have a mind of her own. Not trying to start hype about pumping a ridge or anything of that nature, but surprises would defiantly be in store. Then again, nobody is forecasting a Wilma from the Caribbean to the Atlantic with landfalls and shear in the way. Anyone watching the FIM model? I believe it is the model taking over the GFS in the future. A lot of the models have the strongest wind field on the north-west side of Sandy, not the typical right quadrant. The wind field overall is noticeable large too. Well, okay - what I meant was... Wilma serves as a bench mark for system in that area that fester, giving "maybe" to greater intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS stalls it in the bahamas for a day or two and then heads it ENE out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If this pulls a Wilma, which is of course aggressively saying something, would cause Sandy to have a mind of her own. Not trying to start hype about pumping a ridge or anything of that nature, but surprises would defiantly be in store. Then again, nobody is forecasting a Wilma from the Caribbean to the Atlantic with landfalls and shear in the way. Anyone watching the FIM model? I believe it is the model taking over the GFS in the future. A lot of the models have the strongest wind field on the north-west side of Sandy, not the typical right quadrant. The wind field overall is noticeable large too. Not really unusual considering that the high would be almost due north of the TC's center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS stalls it in the bahamas for a day or two and then heads it ENE out to sea You past 102 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS stalls it in the bahamas for a day or two and then heads it ENE out to sea and you know this how? Its only out to hour 120 and in or just west of its 18z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well FWIW the west does look a little better this time. The second s/w has a bit more amplification, but not sure if it will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Go to bed. You said your going to bed. Stop trolling here. the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 GFS stalls it in the bahamas for a day or two and then heads it ENE out to sea Weren't you going to bed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 idk why they havent banned you yet the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough in the Plains is better this go around. Not as progressive and flat..and looks closer to EC ensemble IMO. Bur Sandy is pretty far east at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Do everyone a favor and 5 post yourself for at least the next 10 days. Signed, All of AmericanWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 the trough is broad and flat and Sandy has an easy escape route to the ENE under the big north atlantic low Yes you've posted it on 4 sub-forums, we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough in the Plains is better this go around. Not as progressive and flat..and looks closer to EC ensemble IMO. Bur Sandy is pretty far east at this point. eh yeah best vorcity about 50 miles east of 18z but agree it doesnt look as progressive out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No matter what Sandy does this run with the trough, the trough is not broad and flat like is being said. Its better than previous runs and is more amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough in the Plains is better this go around. Not as progressive and flat..and looks closer to EC ensemble IMO. Bur Sandy is pretty far east at this point. Sandy is too far east IMO to get picked up... may graze SNE coastline... but is just too far east this run to be picked up. However, as you and others said above, the trough looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If Sandy was drifting further west earlier in the run, this probably would be a much more interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well FWIW the west does look a little better this time. The second s/w has a bit more amplification, but not sure if it will be enough. Agree. it might be trying to catch on to the last-second shortwave that the GGEM was developing ..which rips south and east from the Pac into the Central US. You can start to see it on the GFS from 130-144 from the Plains to the Southeast. If that feature is stronger it could surge southeast and capture the system, provided the TC isn't thousands of miles to the northeast by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Just comparing 10-28 (sun 03z),Current 129hr prog on the 0z, there is a bit more bend in the trough, A little more defined so to speak, but the NAtL low has shifted east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Am I seeing things wrong or is the 0z GFS actually coming towards a phase? It certainly looks much, much closer to one than the 18z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 No matter what Sandy does this run with the trough, the trough is not broad and flat like is being said. Its better than previous runs and is more amplified. it does sharpen more at at 138hrs than it was doing earlier in the run, you are correct with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Actually maybe a smidge west on hour 138 and more amplification of the western ridge for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 . Rumors that you were 5 posted not real I guess. I think it's a kind of insanity really. It's wide open and visible, yet some individuals still won't register that they are exposed, yet persist in using sites on the web to pour their anti-social behavior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 eh yeah best vorcity about 50 miles east of 18z but agree it doesnt look as progressive out west. Sandy is too far east IMO to get picked up... may graze SNE coastline... but is just too far east this run to be picked up. However, as you and others said above, the trough looks much better It's longitude is an issue, but what noticed was the difference out west. Again...this owing the PAC energy creating some problems as we would expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The trough in the Plains is better this go around. Not as progressive and flat..and looks closer to EC ensemble IMO. Bur Sandy is pretty far east at this point. I think it may even be a little more amped then the 12z euro. That disturbance zipping though SE KS @ 132 is exactly what is needed for a phase.Only problem is the storms alread too far east. Edit: GFS deamplified after 132hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It's longitude is an issue, but what noticed was the difference out west. Again...this owing the PAC energy creating some problems as we would expect. True, I am guessing the PAC energy wont be sampled well till Wed/Thurs or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 For comparisons sake... Oz 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Am I seeing things wrong or is the 0z GFS actually coming towards a phase? It certainly looks much, much closer to one than the 18z GFS... It's stepping backwards, no question - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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