Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hence my comment that its 99.999% unlikely, as far as I know no storm in recorded written history has been that strong at our latitude / location. Am I wrong? FLAT OUT - YES you are wrong. Now I am not saying that it will happen but when it comes to the atmosphere it will do what it wants when it wants if it wants. With the atmosphere anything is possible as my very wise college professor said to the synoptic met class one day. You have "normal" and "climo" but you also have record highs and lows for a day and temps that vary from normal. Climo late season TCs tned to have more of a poleward motion with deviations east of north but you can have storms that move to the contrary. Anything is possible so therefore by saying it is unlikely makes your statement wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 itll start rolling within about 15 minutes. Well get to this storms timeframe about 1215-1230 thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I have them - I'm using the NCEP library. Hazel was still not converting until it well inland and up along the primary baroclinic axis - but just east. It really didn't complete until western Ontario. This is different the way the Euro has this. It's tilting the trough and not developing a baroclinic wave initially in response; it's again using the TC its self and that is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 FLAT OUT - YES you are wrong. Now I am not saying that it will happen but when it comes to the atmosphere it will do what it wants when it wants if it wants. With the atmosphere anything is possible as my very wise college professor said to the synoptic met class one day. You have "normal" and "climo" but you also have record highs and lows for a day and temps that vary from normal. Climo late season TCs tned to have more of a poleward motion with deviations east of north but you can have storms that move to the contrary. Anything is possible so therefore by saying it is unlikely makes your statement wrong. 99.999% is not 100 percent, if the pressure was as modeled on the Euro its the strongest pressure ever recorded in these parts in our limited ~300 year written history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wouldn't say all the data, the GFS and american products (hurricane models) are all in good agregment of this staying offshore and therefore missing any potential phase. The GFS early next week is very benign with a broad trough over the eastern US. The only good consensus right now is a strong TS or cane hitting Jamaica. Again you are missing the point. Don't just focus on Sandy. It may or may not be a player DIRECTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 99.999% is not 100 percent, if the pressure was as modeled on the Euro its the strongest pressure ever recorded in these parts in our limited ~300 year written history. There wasn't very good offshore data back around 1712; so what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What does everyone think about this article? http://5statewx.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=66%3Atropical-storm-sandy-could-become-a-superstorm-around-halloween-&catid=1%3Aarticles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Again you are missing the point. Don't just focus on Sandy. It may or may not be a player DIRECTLY. Thank You! Everyone here is getting to caught up in the tiny details when we should be looking at the broad scheme of things (western ridge ect..) as Wiz already stated. If we all sit here and freak out over every little detail change on every model run we wont be alive to witness this storm (if it happens). Hell im just glad theres some good model porn to look at right now after how boring the weathers been this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There wasn't very good offshore data back around 1712; so what's your point? Point being this is about as extreme as you can get on a standard deviation curve and therefore inherently not likely. This is not even taking into account model performance beyond 5 days. Im off to sleep, those who stay up enjoy the model runs. Have a good night Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I have them - I'm using the NCEP library. Hazel was still not converting until it well inland and up along the primary baroclinic axis - but just east. It really didn't complete until western Ontario. This is different the way the Euro has this. It's tilting the trough and not developing a baroclinic wave initially in response; it's again using the TC its self and that is different. I disagree FWIIW there is the Polar front on the EC @ 168 hours over the E_Central great lakes with a wave over extrems SE ontario or north of CLE (which will likely be stronger than progged IMO EC forecast trough pattern @ 168 hours is quite similar to Hazel 12-24 hours prior to LF on SC coast. Also the TC/XT transtion w/ Hazel occured over S'rn VA around Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Point being this is about as extreme as you can get on a standard deviation curve and therefore inherently not likely. This is not even taking into account model performance beyond 5 days. Im off to sleep, those who stay up enjoy the model runs. Have a good night Andy. Thanks. Sleep well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What models are forecasting for pressure right now shouldn't even be discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL REFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW FORECASTS SANDY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES JAMAICA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 99.999% is not 100 percent, if the pressure was as modeled on the Euro its the strongest pressure ever recorded in these parts in our limited ~300 year written history. Nah, you're back-peddling - dude, come on. stop this shenanigans. it's old before you even started. Trolling as a hobby is too exposed and a bore. 99.999% is not a 100 percent, so you concede that there is a .001 chance this is happening as your counterpoint?? is there any awareness there how ludicrous you just came across ? wow - you used your own point against your self and apparently don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What models are forecasting for pressure right now shouldn't even be discussed. Nope, especially since it's highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What does everyone think about this article? http://5statewx.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=66%3Atropical-storm-sandy-could-become-a-superstorm-around-halloween-&catid=1%3Aarticles i just laughed my ass off for 5 minutes straight on that clown map showing 48" of snow just east of pittsburgh. Hahahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here's some food for thought: I think most of us (including me) would agree that a TC curving towards the NW from SE MA is well a very low probability of happening. BUT perhaps we should forget about this being a TC; once we do "XT" storms in the past have taken similar tracks or made loops. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs is rolling btw. out to hour 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Nope, especially since it's highly unlikely. That and models are terrible when it comes to forecasting pressures in these types of systems, especially this far out. We see this all throughout the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL REFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW FORECASTS SANDY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES JAMAICA. Yup. not intending to be the rooster taking credit for the dawn, but I mentioned this much earlier in this thread that I felt TPC was under-doing it in their intensity guidance from earlier. "REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR." DING DING DING - WILMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Here's some food for thought: I think most of us (including me) would agree that a TC curving towards the NW from SE MA is well a very low probability of happening. BUT perhaps we should forget about this being a TC; once we do "XT" storms in the past have taken similar tracks or made loops. Just saying... Dude that's a good point.. xt's with some warm core characteristics hooking NW is just about what this thing is though - so just say it - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs out to 60 but already the changes are noticeable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What does everyone think about this article? http://5statewx.com/...atid=1:articles "Superstorm" is even in the title. Nice pictures though, I like how he cropped Ryan Maue's / Weatherbell's image...talk about not giving someone credit for their models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs looks further west at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs out to 60 but already the changes are noticeable for the better? i know weenie question lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I'm just not a big fan of articles about potential storm systems this far out that go into specifics and give numerical values to things like snowfall, rainfall, wind speeds, etc...people see that and will completely take everything out of context and automatically expect those things to happen. It's stuff like that which gives the public the wrong idea and which causes all the panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I wouldn't say all the data, the GFS and american products (hurricane models) are all in good agregment of this staying offshore and therefore missing any potential phase. Most of the cane models are based off the gfs..hence your "good agregment" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Most of the cane models are based off the gfs..hence your "good agregment" agreed, it's tough to go against such "agregment" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Most of the cane models are based off the gfs..hence your "good agregment" +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yup. not intending to be the rooster taking credit for the dawn, but I mentioned this much earlier in this thread that I felt TPC was under-doing it in their intensity guidance from earlier. "REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR." DING DING DING - WILMA If this pulls a Wilma, which is of course aggressively saying something, would cause Sandy to have a mind of her own. Not trying to start hype about pumping a ridge or anything of that nature, but surprises would defiantly be in store. Then again, nobody is forecasting a Wilma from the Caribbean to the Atlantic with landfalls and shear in the way. Anyone watching the FIM model? I believe it is the model taking over the GFS in the future. A lot of the models have the strongest wind field on the north-west side of Sandy, not the typical right quadrant. The wind field overall is noticeable large too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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