SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And you know this because - no, your logic is entirely flawed comparing Irene to what's modeled by the GGEM and Euro, and NOGAPs by the way. Hell, the NOGAPS takes the thing to 940!! Irene's leading synoptics bear 0 likeness physically to these model solutions. Settle down. Unfortunately your response is pointless because he wont listen to you. He has been disrespectful to all the Mets on here the over the 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Unless if its a warm seclusion then anything is possible. And it looks like a warm seclusion. That said, 927 is past the bounds of reality IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Unfortunately your response is pointless because he wont listen to you. He has been disrespectful to all the Mets on here the over the 24 hours... His answers are quite limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 His answers are quite limited It just frustrates me to no end...he just throws out garbage with no support, but dismisses the thoughts of those who have studied this field for years and have degrees and advanced degrees....I don't understand it...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Unfortunately your response is pointless because he wont listen to you. He has ALWAYS been disrespectful to all the Mets on here the over the 24 hours... Corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It would be a 1938/Hazel kind of scenario. I feel like we've seen a number of storms that the models have tried to take NW into the Delmarva or NJ or SNE only to have them slide safely OTS. Maybe we've been lucky (what if Isabel was 200 miles north?) but I just feel like this kind of event is so unusual and the models seem to always be a bit phase happy. and we see the weenie hype meter red line every time. Gonna' be a long winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And it looks like a warm seclusion. That said, 927 is past the bounds of reality IMO. Haha - yeah. Me too - But schit I'd take 960mb result and that would be big scary to a lot of folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Haha - yeah. Me too - But schit I'd take 960mb result and that would be big scary to a lot of folks. 1938 hurricane was 941mb at landfall on Long Island... so I think it's fair to say... that by any metric... 927mb is testing the bounds of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al182012.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 The SST Anomaly's have gone down a bit since summer, but are still very warm off the U East Coast. Does this hurt or help the chances of this happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 1938 hurricane was 941mb at landfall on Long Island... so I think it's fair to say... that by any metric... 927mb is testing the bounds of reality. hence my comment that its 99.999% unlikely, as far as I know no storm in recorded written history has been that strong at our latitude / location. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 How do SST's play into whatever solution actually happens? *IF* a tropical system could make it to SNE this late in the season, how much would lower SST's come into play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 1938 hurricane was 941mb at landfall on Long Island... so I think it's fair to say... that by any metric... 927mb is testing the bounds of reality. Well there you go - yeah. You know what's slipping under the radar here is that if this happens, the GGEM nailed this a helluvit ahead of the others. Now, the NOGAPs 941mb? This is kind of the tail wagging the dog haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 And it looks like a warm seclusion. That said, 927 is past the bounds of reality IMO. I have seen this CP and lower in my years as a ship router and marine met. This said WS' tend to be at higher latitudes and more over eastern ends of ocean basins but then again they are not exclusive to these regions either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 How do SST's play into whatever solution actually happens? *IF* a tropical system could make it to SNE this late in the season, how much would lower SST's come into play? It won't be a pure TC. This said the SST gradient as one hits and moves north of the Gulfstream (assuming this storm does) will add additional baroclinic energy to the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 hence my comment that its 99.999% unlikely, as far as I know no storm in recorded written history has been that strong at our latitude / location. Am I wrong? You responded to a post where it said that millions of years of data have transpire that mankind is not privy to - you don't know what is capable of happening. So yes, you're wrong on that point. And your wrong to use a mere 300 years of data, the first half of which is sketchy at best, to draw up conclusions about what is possible and not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Having above-normal SST's certainly would do some help, however, if we do indeed see phasing/interaction with the through/Polar Jet then baroclinic processes would really take over and SST's, whether, warmer or cooler really won't do too much, especially if the system is undergoing ET processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It won't be a pure TC. This said the SST gradient as one hits and moves north of the Gulfstream (assuming this storm does) will add additional baroclinic energy to the system. Right! it's energy derivation is not SST reliant at by the time in gets N of the G-string. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 http://derecho.math....ls/al182012.png Well that pretty much sums it up for me...Goodnight Sandy,thxs for the ride.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 http://derecho.math....ls/al182012.png Kind of gives a nod to the GFS, doesn't it. But, again, ... I think the GFS is having continuity issues with the trough amplitude into the TV region spanning the last 2 days of runs. Why it's opted to a flatter, non-as-capable-of-capture overall trough "might' be related to sampling issues over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It won't be a pure TC. This said the SST gradient as one hits and moves north of the Gulfstream (assuming this storm does) will add additional baroclinic energy to the system. So this could be a storm (if it happens) that weakens in core intensity, but grows larger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well that pretty much sums it up for me...Goodnight Sandy,thxs for the ride.. That really means nothing at this point. Don't give up yet lol...in fact if you sleep until Friday you could start paying attention then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 There would have to be a comparative re-analysis of the differentiation between symmetric to asymmetric phase transition with both, but unfortunately we won't know until this one's in the books. If it ever gets there. In other words, a discrete analysis. The governing set up similar, but the devil's in the details. I think that one thing that differentiates this from Hazel is that the trough that captured Hazel was no long deepening at the time that contact was ingested. In this case, the Euro modeled trough is just turning negative and deepening on its own rite when gulp - in slips even a tropical storm is huge - it's timing. The Euro fuses at just the right time where the physics appear to use the actual TC vortex, and converts IT into the negative tilted trough's position for the wave. So what do you have - at that point you have an already deep spiral in the column that taps directly into difluence aloft - holy shistle. That's why its deepening it so madly. It really is a perfect scenario. I think the longer odds are again that timing in this is a real, real delicate procedure - it's doing this from a 6 or 7 day lead, too. For starters I was actually referring to the NNW-NW motion after transition. Secondly there really are similarities to this "forecast" system and Hazel. Actually Hazel was much more dynamic in its phasing with the polar trough which IIRC (from seeing the actually maps and reanalysis of the storm not from personally ) and the rough was still deepening. I'll have to dig up the maps for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well that pretty much sums it up for me...Goodnight Sandy,thxs for the ride.. thxs for the ride? Are you serious? You cant dismiss a potential storm 9 days away because one suite of tropical models (mainly GFS based which is known to have some feedback problems wrt strength of ridges) doesnt show it. Theres tons of other models, ensembles, ect... To dismiss it now would be just plain stupid IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 So this could be a storm (if it happens) that weakens in core intensity, but grows larger? That could be one possibility or it could be a TC that undergoes an intransification and gets stronger due to the additional baroclinic energy/instability. OR It could be one kick ass intense coastal low OR it could be a strong cold fropa with rain followed wind and cold. Its just way too early to tell. I think one thing is certain is that ALL the data is "foreshadowing" a major weather event by next weekend early/next week. As Tip has mentioned the devil is in the details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When is the GFS out? I thought someone mentioned 11:30? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That could be one possibility or it could be a TC that undergoes an intransification and gets stronger due to the additional baroclinic energy/instability. OR It could be one kick ass intense coastal low OR it could be a strong cold fropa with rain followed wind and cold. Its just way too early to tell. I think one thing is certain is that ALL the data is "foreshadowing" a major weather event by next weekend early/next week. As Tip has mentioned the devil is in the details... Thanks. And if nothing else, it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 If we don't start seeing less in the way of spread within some of the ensembles and track projections by the tropical models it might be time to start losing thoughts of something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 When is the GFS out? I thought someone mentioned 11:30? itll start rolling within about 15 minutes. Well get to this storms timeframe about 1215-1230 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 That could be one possibility or it could be a TC that undergoes an intransification and gets stronger due to the additional baroclinic energy/instability. OR It could be one kick ass intense coastal low OR it could be a strong cold fropa with rain followed wind and cold. Its just way too early to tell. I think one thing is certain is that ALL the data is "foreshadowing" a major weather event by next weekend early/next week. As Tip has mentioned the devil is in the details... I wouldn't say all the data, the GFS and american products (hurricane models) are all in good agregment of this staying offshore and therefore missing any potential phase. The GFS early next week is very benign with a broad trough over the eastern US. The only good consensus right now is a strong TS or cane hitting Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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