SnowMan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's not even close to the Euro. GFS is worlds apart from the Euro. He said the GFS has been consistent with showing it OTS for the last few runs. I said the same could be said about the Euro - meaning it has been consistent showing a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Scott, I was trying to figure it out. Is that trough in BC/Washington State at 120 hours on the GFS that dampens things out the one that gets it done on the Euro? Yeah it's too flat on the GFS to do anything, but that is the s/w at the last second that the euro digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah it's too flat on the GFS to do anything, but that is the s/w at the last second that the euro digs. The NOGAPs is still pulling off the late Euroesque hail mary with that s/w trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The NOGAPs is still pulling off the late Euroesque hail mary with that s/w trough. I was looking at the EC ensemble H5 anomalies. I wish I could see H5 vorticity. Anyways, even at hr 132 the ensembles is deeper with the s/w trough in the Plains and deeper with the ridge in the west, but it's also east with Sandy as compared to the Euro op at hr 132. It's also a little better with the -NAO as compared to the EC ensemble at 00z. Adding it up, we get the solution SE of the Cape as it's not seeing the crazy op run capture. One would naturally expect that for both smoothing reasons, and also the fact that the op run displayed a highly anomalous situation. So many variables at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ah ha ha ha ha ....oh hahahahahahahahahhah https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012102218∏=thkτ=174&set=Core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ha, wow - turned on the tube and The Perfect Storm is just starting on Sundance -nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Perfect storm on sundance! Sign of things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Someone call George Clooney and give him a model update. ha, wow - turned on the tube and The Perfect Storm is just starting on Sundance -nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 He said the GFS has been consistent with showing it OTS for the last few runs. I said the same could be said about the Euro - meaning it has been consistent showing a nice hit. EURO has changed by hundreds of miles from 12z -> 0z -> 12z while the GFS has been much much more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EURO has changed by hundreds of miles from 12z -> 0z -> 12z while the GFS has been much much more consistent. In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. of course the gfs has changed by 100s of miles lol...it has different trough positions...different amplitudes. But that won't stop this troll from his bs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. Does it even really matter this far out if models are close to land or OTS and so forth? At this point all the focus should be on the upper air patterns and such...there are quite a few times where this far out the models placement of systems may not seem right given the upper air pattern. I think some people pay too much attention to the "smaller" stuff rather than the large picture, especially when dealing with medium/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ah ha ha ha ha ....oh hahahahahahahahahhah https://www.fnmoc.na...au=174&set=Core Good kite flyin' weather there my friend.....lead kites!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. I'm glad you brought this up. We deal with this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sandy gaining some strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 In fairness though, hasn't the GFS changed by hundreds of miles too? However, it is more difficult to perceive, as out to sea is out to sea. It's spin to say the GFS has been more consistent when 12z yesterday it had a solution almost identical to today's 12z Euro - so no, that individual needs to check them self because the Euro has had an impactor on the EC for 2 days worth of runs now that GFS has been INconsistent in that same time. Also, to say nothing of the fact that this issue with the GFS clearly is rooted in sampling and assimilation issues over the Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Good kite flyin' weather there my friend.....lead kites!! Word! ha - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Someone call George Clooney and give him a model update. That's a good question actually - I never thought to go look up the modeled data 4 days before that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't know if you all noticed this but I find it fascinating - some of the tropical guidance takes our red hashed friend out there that NE of the Leewards, 'canes it, then merges it with the Azores -NAO low right around the time that our buddy lubes up the eastern seaboard. Wow - genetics of the atmosphere. Blocking blocking blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I don't know if you all noticed this but I find it fascinating - some of the tropical guidance takes our red hashed friend out there that NE of the Leewards, 'canes it, then merges it with the Azores -NAO low right around the time that our buddy lubes up the eastern seaboard. Wow - genetics of the atmosphere. Blocking blocking blocking I remember both a presentation and a paper on such an interaction (how TC's outflows can lead to intensification of ocean storms in a remote/indirect way). I want to say the paper was written by Lance Bosart of U of Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Does it even really matter this far out if models are close to land or OTS and so forth? At this point all the focus should be on the upper air patterns and such...there are quite a few times where this far out the models placement of systems may not seem right given the upper air pattern. I think some people pay too much attention to the "smaller" stuff rather than the large picture, especially when dealing with medium/long range. Nice post Wiz and very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I remember both a presentation and a paper on such an interaction (how TC's outflows can lead to intensification of ocean storms in a remote/indirect way). I want to say the paper was written by Lance Bosart of U of Albany Yeah, I've heard of that But I'm actually speaking to how interesting that the Azores low once to cannibalize a TC in the same way our cutting off deal on the MA does - like, at the same time?! there's something significant about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Does it even really matter this far out if models are close to land or OTS and so forth? At this point all the focus should be on the upper air patterns and such...there are quite a few times where this far out the models placement of systems may not seem right given the upper air pattern. I think some people pay too much attention to the "smaller" stuff rather than the large picture, especially when dealing with medium/long range. Ding ding ding - amen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 John, with your post above regarding the navy model...what the heck is pulling it back in so hard toward the end of that run? it looks like the storm gets captured by the trough...does the trough just go crazy negative after that? What sends the trough crazy like that...the dying low in northern canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Great post, Paul.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I was looking at the EC ensemble H5 anomalies. I wish I could see H5 vorticity. Anyways, even at hr 132 the ensembles is deeper with the s/w trough in the Plains and deeper with the ridge in the west, but it's also east with Sandy as compared to the Euro op at hr 132. It's also a little better with the -NAO as compared to the EC ensemble at 00z. Adding it up, we get the solution SE of the Cape as it's not seeing the crazy op run capture. One would naturally expect that for both smoothing reasons, and also the fact that the op run displayed a highly anomalous situation. So many variables at play. Here's the NGP ensemble for vorticity. http://francisperey.com/sailing/nogaps.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I updated my blog with the latest on Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I updated my blog with the latest on Sandy. Threw the "ECMWF is NOT gonna happen" flag huh? hopefully you're right mr. hanrahan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Surfs up Beantown, Wave Watch 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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