WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The latest SHIPS model forecast is calling for a 52% chance that Sandy's winds will increase by 30 mph over a 24-hour period. -Dr. Masters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Starting to move ENE by 114 hours while just east of the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If there is a phase it is going to be late and last minute if at all It looked to be making strides but the last few frames to come out have been discouraging. Might be similar to 12z, with some differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We always get the people who love to explorate the run ...let it come out and discuss the outcome, not predict it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 NHC doesn't make Sandy subtropical by 120 hours in the new forecast. Fairly weak by 120H. I'm surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm not really sure how much stock I'd put into the models strength of a tropical system days in advance (except perhaps the tropical models). Also, there seems to be increased shear to the north of the Islands and a quite a bit of drier air. Outside of any phasing Sandy might have some difficulties really strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Fairly weak by 120H. I'm surprised. I changed my avatar to better reflect current KFS progs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sheesh thought it was going to come in a further west. Granted it did a little, but my winter model watching eyes have to rusty. My apologies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Really similar path overall to 12z so far in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I changed my avatar to better reflect current KFS progs That definitely should be Blizz's avatar... good find, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Man...I wonder which model will cave...euro to GFS or GFS to Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol..GFS what an outliner..it's like the Gallup poll in the presidential race Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Really similar path overall to 12z so far in reality. Yeah maybe a little west in the beginning, but again it's playing around with PAC energy and I think we'll see both models shift around over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah maybe a little west in the beginning, but again it's playing around with PAC energy and I think we'll see both models shift around over the next few days. Models will probably keep shifting even inside of two days with all the players that are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't get close to the coast with this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I forget, but I think there was a big storm last year that was modeled to hit us. Both Euro and GFS had it, but the GFS caught on first that it would miss wide-right...this could be similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This will get resolved late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Great consistency by the gfs given how far out it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 whoosh I think I saw this exact same post today from you and Jerry as the Euro was coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah maybe a little west in the beginning, but again it's playing around with PAC energy and I think we'll see both models shift around over the next few days. Scott, I was trying to figure it out. Is that trough in BC/Washington State at 120 hours on the GFS that dampens things out the one that gets it done on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 the full moon halloween nor'easter hurricane,... or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One of my friends just told me one TV met in the NYC area was making some comparisons to last October's snowstorm and mentioned while it's very unlikely to happen again and mentioned the possibility of snow in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Great consistency by the gfs given how far out it is Same could be said about the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't get close to the coast with this: Not with that flow out of the west, Ridge is getting beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Same good be said about the Euro... Umm no it can't not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Umm no it can't not even close It's not even close to the Euro. GFS is worlds apart from the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think I saw this exact same post today from you and Jerry as the Euro was coming out. Nope, Go back and read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Man...I wonder which model will cave...euro to GFS or GFS to Euro... I wonder if they are both wrong. At this time range, its likely our final product might not even be modeled yet. So many little changes will occur 200+ hours out, no real idea can even be had. All of the little jogs associated with tropical systems and the strengthening they undergo, who could really know. Then you begin to think about all of the features still over the Pacific. Your looking at great potential and fuel for a historic system. That's all it is at this point. When you build a team, it either comes together or it doesn't. If Drew Bledsoe doesn't get a collapsed lung and Tom Brady doesn't fall into perfect stride who knows what would have happened to the Patriots over the past decade. Brady and the Pats came together into the perfect storm, I wonder if the pieces here can fall together. You have to remind yourself how often systems like this occur. It would likely break measured barometric pressure records on many major sites on the EC and bring historic flooding to the likes some of our older members have never seen. It's just not feasible to think you have a better chance of a superstorm coming together than it not at this time range. All of the fuel is there for the fire, will the atmosphere find the box of matches or leave the weenies squirming? Climo, history, any type of brain would lead you to be extremely careful at this point. A weenie tainted heart will find reasons for it to occur and why things shouldn't go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Need a distraction. It all comes down to the pacific. Nobody can tell me that any one solution in the pac is favored over another orwhy models can't loose the storm and bring it back 60hrs out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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