Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So what do we take away from this you ask? All the major 12z models have some sort of coastal bomb by 192 hours. That's a pretty decent signal for this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Lol....euro qpf meh for ne. Kevin's lights flicker but stay on. His girls are happy and go to bed in their warm beds. Kevin and wife do so shortly afterwards with some nooky to welcome the new week. Kevin looks at the upcoming cold, doesn't miss a beat, dons the robes and here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 It's warm core at 168 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Well at least something may be in the cards. That's about all you can say with it being 7+ days out. The whip to the west is possible as this thing gets captured, but a track south of PHL would probably lessen the impact for this area as far as both rain and wind go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 94 knots you say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Some nice CAA via S-SW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Some nice CAA via S-SW winds. Sound Effect Rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Look at the blocking on the Atlantic side, on the 12z Euro at 144hr. It's hard to see, how this will escape east, afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Talk about a pattern changer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 94 knots you say? wow..could be a dark halloween for many in my area..lol.even a dark election day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 lol -368 dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 GFS and euro are cause for alarm it still could easily bust but it's definitely worth watching . A closed 500mb low near the Mason Dixon line elongated East to West is a key feature in most SNE signifigant weather events. While the surface low tracks can vary quite a bit, the large area of easterly winds to the north of the H5 low are the driving force. Several models are showing this feature. Even the 12z GGEM has an amazing SE LLJ and ULJ coming in off the atlantic despite the OTS track. So keep your eye on the NRN stream here and the blocking over the maritimes. They may prove more important then the TC itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 You know - even if this doesn't happen in this fashion, the GGEM already deserves some props. It was pegging this idea a full day before this Euro run - or longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 You know - even if this doesn't happen in this fashion, the GGEM already deserves some props. It was pegging this idea a full day before this Euro run - or longer This winters model of choice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 There is another lesser known teleconnector that is hugely ominous - wow - and that is the NCEP won't put out their afternoon discussion for the extended range. There is a high correlation for belated information leading bigger events - hellooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Stop posting the SV maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This kind of has a November 1950 vibe about it too - ... it's funny with these bigger events, you can see a common sort of genetics to them all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 You know - even if this doesn't happen in this fashion, the GGEM already deserves some props. It was pegging this idea a full day before this Euro run - or longer I'd wait and see what verifies before giving it props. It's still 192hrs out. The waiting is already driving me insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Originally posted this in the other thread but it's more appropriate here: Below represents ~ 2.5 standard deviation rise in the PNA index in just 9 days!! That duality in timing with an ongoing strong negative NAO would argue for something important into the OV-MA region without the abduction of a tropical entity. If there were no plausible tropical involvement this would probably tempt me to starting a new thread for another Halloween (~) snow threat - but would argue that 2 days prior and through the first week of November (10th) is an interval of time quite vulnerable to cold climo type weather event(s). The EPO leads this PNA jolt with a negative interval in it's own rite. In fact, the EPO ridge may actually retrograde SW to where it modulates the PNA domain and gets the ball rolling that way - at least partially, that's likely. Also, we all know that Autumn Phase 2 MJO's have a robust negative temperature departure correlation over the N and NE CONUS. It is noted that the CPCs PNA computation isn't as robust, however, the mean of the cluster shows a discerned rise nonetheless. Two quick comments: 1) I'm sure we all know but it needs to be stated - this is a deep middle to extended range phenomenon being depicted. That said, sometimes the bigger "historical" events will take on a bit of a marker in the physics real early in the game because their dynamical presence shines a bit brighter than the usual stochastic nature of the atmosphere out in time. For example, the great storm of March 1993 had an early presentation in the runs of the day, which are bit more primitive than today's standards - if it can happen then, it DEFINITELY can happen now. We'll see if this is an early detection on a mammoth event, or if it's just a typical Autumn fusion trick - some penchants for models to do this at this time of year cannot be overstated. 2) What is being depicted by this GGEM and GFS, individually, and in blend, are/is pushing the upper bounds of what can happen on this planet. Earth only rotates so fast. The temperature variation involved in the baroclinicity, and prior to the introduction of the Tropics combined can only express so much power - beyond which is simply not available to Terran physics. We are, in the end, not talking about a comet impact. The reason this facet is important is that when "edge of the envelope" events are modeled, the downside to determinism is that the closer to perfection one succeeds, the more possibilities emerge to prevent that realization. It's like the elusive 105F day at Logan because a 747 took off and blew a parcel of sea air in the wrong direction - something will find a way to f things up. ...Trying to reconcile 1, and 2, while ingesting new runs every 6 hours is going to be a hoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 I'd wait and see what verifies before giving it props. It's still 192hrs out. The waiting is already driving me insane. Dude, you missed the point. not extending props to an event. the recognition is seeing the possibilities - the fact that it led the others in doing so, speaks to some success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 You know - even if this doesn't happen in this fashion, the GGEM already deserves some props. It was pegging this idea a full day before this Euro run - or longer The gfs and esp ensembles have been doing whacky things for almost a week in the deep extended range. Certainly showing at least signals of a phase and coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Euro destroys us with wind As the owner of an insurance agency in SW CT...all I can say is thank God the leaves are falling early!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 As the owner of an insurance agency in SW CT...all I can say is thank God the leaves are falling early!!!!! The bigger issue would probably be the rain ahead of the system. The GFS is just a terrible solution with absolutely soaked soil conditions by the time the gale force winds arrived. Think of all the damage in March 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 So the key in all of these runs is with the ridging downstream of the western trough by the middle of the week, and the incredible ridging from the Bering Straight to Greenland. For past New England TCs, a -NAO transitioning to a highly positive NAO is a rather large signal. In this case, the negative NAO isn't budging. BUT the consistent model projection is to bridge the eastern US ridge with the -NAO Greenland ridge creating this monster deep layer southerly flow from the Mid Atlantic to the North Pole! Notice that we have largely achieved similar solutions with pretty variable evolutions of the incoming trough from the west. The consistent feature is this ridge-bridge. Another huge signal in the past New England TC database is the TC being supported beneath the equatorward entrance region of a jet streak over the POSITIVE NAO ridging over the Atlantic. In this case, we have that jet streak and supportive quadrant over the TC, but the jet streak is on the upstream side of the ridge and oriented nearly straight south-north!! Pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 So the key in all of these runs is with the ridging downstream of the western trough by the middle of the week, and the incredible ridging from the Bering Straight to Greenland. For past New England TCs, a -NAO transitioning to a highly positive NAO is a rather large signal. In this case, the negative NAO isn't budging. BUT the consistent model projection is to bridge the eastern US ridge with the -NAO Greenland ridge creating this monster deep layer southerly flow from the Mid Atlantic to the North Pole! Notice that we have largely achieved similar solutions with pretty variable evolutions of the incoming trough from the west. The consistent feature is this ridge-bridge. Another huge signal in the past New England TC database is the TC being supported beneath the equatorward entrance region of a jet streak over the POSITIVE NAO ridging over the Atlantic. In this case, we have that jet streak and supportive quadrant over the TC, but the jet streak is on the upstream side of the ridge and oriented nearly straight south-north!! Pretty awesome. Good post... this is spot on. The ridge-bridge is perfectly timed for whatever comes out of the Caribbean to menace the east coast. The escape hatch has been welded shut at least how it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Noel redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Noel redux? I joked about that like 5 days ago when the GFS had a few weenie runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 I joked about that like 5 days ago when the GFS had a few weenie runs. Seems like a Noel-esque scenario is on the table. Storm races north... doesn't phase until well past SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Sam check out icebreaker's post earlier. You also have left exit region venting too under the crazy ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 HPC: THE TRACK OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW WAS COORDINATED WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ONLY MADE COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CHARTS FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. THE ULTIMATE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THE AMPLIFYING POLAR JET IS OF THE ESSENCE, WITH SOME THE MODELS, INCLUDING THE 12Z/21 ECMWF, SUGGESTING THAT A LARGE, SPRAWLING HYBRID LOW IS DRAWN TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THE END OF DAY 7. MUCH REMAINS TO BE SORTED OUT, BUT THE POTENTIAL IMPACT IS IMPRESSIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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