am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EC ens mean appears to go just outside the BM again and into the Maritimes just east of EPO. Like 0z, the op is not an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY... 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 Location: 12.5°N 78.5°W Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Public Advisory #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sandy is born! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Sandy is now a tropical storm. T 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. SANDY IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH- NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 History of storms that strike the east coast with while moving west of due north? Doesn't look like much.. and none of them took a sharp left like some models show. 1878 was a late October system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanbos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Bob 1991, the same year as the "no name storm" , was the last land-falling "hurricane" to hit New England and how many years has that been? New England does not get hurricanes anymore, we have a permanent "block-deflector" over the region...some year our luck will run out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 History of storms that strike the east coast with while moving west of due north? Doesn't look like much.. and none of them took a sharp left like some models show. 1878 was a late October system Something like this is very rare to occur and typically you would need perfect phasing in order for that to occur. This is why we need to be realistic about this and not go hype crazy. Models at this range LOVE to phase these types of systems with the jet stream along the east coast. If we're inside 3-4 days and seeing similar solutions then it may be time to start touting the horn a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Something like this is very rare to occur and typically you would need perfect phasing in order for that to occur. This is why we need to be realistic about this and not go hype crazy. Models at this range LOVE to phase these types of systems with the jet stream along the east coast. If we're inside 3-4 days and seeing similar solutions then it may be time to start touting the horn a bit more. You know insanity will set in here long before that haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY... 5:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 Location: 12.5°N 78.5°W Moving: Stationary Min pressure: 999 mb Max sustained: 40 mph Public Advisory #2 Impossible noreaster27 said not favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know insanity will set in here long before that haha. It already has Some of the posts going on facebook/twitter are ridiculous. It's alright to talk about extreme scenarios here and what not but the last thing you want to do is use that type of language where the general public can see it, especially this far out. It's people who do this make the general public question meteorologists at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Another aspect of the 12z ECM is the biblical upslope snows in the central Appalachians... sub 0C H85 temps, tropical moisture advecting into the Apps of West Virginia, Maryland, and PA on 55-65kts of NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 At age 10 or so, I traced the outline of all the pieces of a United States puzzle to make a map, shaded it with colored pencils to show topographical features, and taped it to the back of an old storm window that my folks had replaced. I could draw on the glass with a marker, and then wipe it clean. On my map, there was often a L just south of New Orleans and a big sprawling high dropping out of Minnesota. Finding out I was not alone in my sickness was a great relief to me. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Finding out I was not alone in my sickness was a great relief to me. LOL I used to draw maps on the chalk boards/white boards at school of coastal storms giving us snowstorms and would write a fake forecast and snowfall totals There were times where people would say to me, "Wait, it's going to snow?"...and I had to explain to them what I was doing. I would also do the same for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Annd the 18z GFS has started.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Meanwhile I'm looking at 168-180 hour time lead and am pretty amazed at seeing this idea of subsuming a TC into a cutting off cold core trough amid so many operational versions for so far in advance. Not to mention, consistently, run after run. Oh, this may not be so true with the operational GFS - no. BUT, it was so in that model yesterday - it's really only been the last couple/3 cycles that backed off - I get the funny feeling it's coming thundering back at some point. The problem with the GFS - from what I can tell - is related to details in the stream dynamics upstream over the Pacific - assimilation for the loss. As soon as a nose of real wind strength tickles a drop sonde (or whatever) and boom. We'll see. It's tough. TPC could be too weak. I don't think Wilma was forecast to go to 200mph with pin prick eye, or however mind-bogglingly intense she was. TPC said themselves that there is a 50/50 shot at something approaching an RI sequence could happen over the next 24 hours, yet they keep the intensity to 70 mph max. Eh, must be some shear associated with that Cuban U/A trough slated to set up - it's what initiates the Caribbean escape, but it could also excite a polarward exhaust channel. Intensity will be interesting because at least for a day and a half, maybe 2, there should be little shear and of course its sitting over some of the planet's richest oceanic heat content. Through all of this, I actually could care less if this marriage takes place. In fact I'd settle ...perhaps even rather just see a solid coastal performance that ends with flurries in the air - that's a nice correlation for on this ensuing cool season alone - I don't need telephone poles flying through the air, and roofs kiting to Albany to get my kicks. Losing power is no no no no no fun. And a solution like that Euro run, it's wind products look shockingly underdone for drilling a 940 someodd mb black hole replete with an event horizon straight NW across the region. Jesus. I also don't have much interest in seeing the GGEM solution take place, because as is, it really would be a huge huge huge problem for NYC areas that are vulnerable to storm surge. That's not overstating anything - that's the objective interpretation of that run. Not only that, given the wrapping of llv warm air initially around the N wall of the cyclone heights is going to mean decent vertical mixing if that were not enough. Nope, don't want to see that kind of damage anywhere. That's why I like a good old fashioned life threatening blizzard. It's only life threatening to Darwin Award contestants. Hint hint, 'don't go out side azzhole'. Problem solved. Snow monsters don't really come inside and get you. Wind on the other hand, does. I've seen photos of NS where 20' of snow is on the level and people are ambling around in the hallways they dug out, no problem. But I also saw a film of some provincials at a Florida diner discussing with a reporter why they were there up to their elbows in egg yokes and toast when there was a hurricane warning, and recall hearing a twangy accent describe how it was 'supposed to hit farther north on up the coast'. About 10 seconds after that statement's conclusion and the roof lifted off the diner as Charlie jogged to the right. F dopes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS is just a touch deeper with Sandy through 30. Nothing else exciting yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Like 0z, the op is not an outlier how members are hitting the US east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Through 54.. heights may be a touch higher with the eastern ride. trof appears less diggy out west. Sandy is stronger maybe barely further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 NHC doesn't make Sandy subtropical by 120 hours in the new forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Through all of this, I actually could care less if this marriage takes place. In fact I'd settle ...perhaps even rather just see a solid coastal performance that ends with flurries in the air - that's a nice correlation for on this ensuing cool season alone - I don't need telephone poles flying through the air, and roofs kiting to Albany to get my kicks. Losing power is no no no no no fun. And a solution like that Euro run, it's wind products look shockingly underdone for drilling a 940 someodd mb black hole replete with an event horizon straight NW across the region. Jesus. I also don't have much interest in seeing the GGEM solution take place, because as is, it really would be a huge huge huge problem for NYC areas that are vulnerable to storm surge. That's not overstating anything - that's the objective interpretation of that run. Not only that, given the wrapping of llv warm air initially around the N wall of the cyclone heights is going to mean decent vertical mixing if that were not enough. Nope, don't want to see that kind of damage anywhere. Ahh the good ol' Tip disclaimer, lol. Every massive 1 in 100+ year storm modeled comes with prose fantasizing about massive societal impacts, and then ends with the disclaimer that "I wouldn't actually want that to happen." I will say I do enjoy reading the Armageddon "what if" posts by Tip. I just can't take these model runs seriously... we see way more fantasy storms than real storms (obviously) and until we are getting to Day+5, Day+4, this is all just weenie fodder. Just think of how many day 7-9 blizzards disappear by day 4-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Through 66... low over the maritimes is further west.. along with ec ridge..trof out in plains stil not as diggy, different organization out west for sure. Sandy is stronger and more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The anti Ryan avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Dendrite,Tropopause Fold, Tippy, Scooter and I are just some of the folks who have talked about drawing up maps just like today's Euro when we were kids. I printed out today's Euro for my grandson so he can learn how to draw fantasy maps like we used to. I did too! LOL. Megastorm "Griselda" was its name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 EDIT for fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Oh boy, might be phasing.. But there is so many pieces involved at 78 hours lol Judging by other model guidance... it has like another 100 hours after hour 78 to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 JMA 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Judging by other model guidance... it has like another 100 hours after hour 78 to phase. I meant starting towards a phase my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Judging by other model guidance... it has like another 100 hours after hour 78 to phase. If there is a phase it is going to be late and last minute if at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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