andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro gets down to near 930mb and no that is not a typo. Actually 927.8 on InstantWxMaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Seems like every subforum has its own model to hug....lol...congrats NewECMWFengland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The 12ZEuro I just can't take seriously, a sub 930 low heading towards the NEUS, intensity wise this model is on drugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Euro gets down to near 930mb and no that is not a typo. Record for a non fully tropical low? Gotta be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Actually 927.8 on InstantWxMaps. 926 on Allan's site. Then landfall into eastern Rhode Island it looks like between 216 and 240, with it sitting on top of Boston at 240 with 966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well it got pushed back to D9...we can be more confident in locking in a huge storm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 H5 flow spits along the 552dm countour. Basically this forces a phase because 552dm cannot lift out west of the block. Edit: Lol NYC would gust to 100mph out of the NW in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Kevin is battening down the hatches for a 1935 Labor Day redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I kinda figured...no matter what actually ends up verifying...models will facilate between a full retrograde SE to NW...Long Island express style straight south to north, or out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Kevin is battening down the hatches for a 1935 Labor Day redux. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well it got pushed back to D9...we can be more confident in locking in a huge storm now. Yeah lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Well it got pushed back to D9...we can be more confident in locking in a huge storm now. Agreed...I'm actually about to head to the store and stock up on all the essentials now...better to beat the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What an epic battle of model extremes. The GGEM thought it had it in the bag with a straight flush...and then Euro gets the royal flush on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 D9, at least it has a 3 day window of oppurtunity. And NYC could gust to 100mph out of the NW. But I doubt a 930 landfall @ this time of year. 970mb is more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That is the Tsar Bomba... Yup 50 Megatons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 LOL, that was interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It was flatter initially so that part is true. That second s/w with nowhere to go dug for oil and pulled it west. That has to be the best clown solution I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It was flatter initially so that part is true. That second s/w with nowhere to go dug for oil and pulled it west. That has to be the best clown solution I've ever seen. It is sort of what the GFS had a few runs ago... well east then the hook left as it phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I need a another triple bunner for my triple phase comment from Sat. Swartz synoptic seven! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 kinda makes you wonder if 1938 was really "just" a warm seclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It is sort of what the GFS had a few runs ago... well east then the hook left as it phased. Yeah, late hook..lol. When looping H5, you can see the s/w in question slow down and then just dig...same times ridging builds to the northeast. Only 9 more days to hold on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This Euro run alleviates the "threat" of surge for the upper MA due to incidence of approach but it's a got other threat assesses for SNE - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 kinda makes you wonder if 1938 was really "just" a warm seclusion. What do you mean? I think it was pretty clear that it was a violent TC that was able to hold its own while going ET thanks to a big baroclinic assist. Seems to match other warm seclusion cases we've seen with ET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ARod could have used a 100 mph gust to left field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah, late hook..lol. When looping H5, you can see the s/w in question slow down and then just dig...same times ridging builds to the northeast. Only 9 more days to hold on. Yeah... no surprise we have funky solutions given how funky the blocking pattern is downstream. Will be next to impossible to pin down any solution that involves the interaction of shortwaves ejecting from the N Pac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What do you mean? I think it was pretty clear that it was a violent TC that was able to hold its own while going ET thanks to a big baroclinic assist. Seems to match other warm seclusion cases we've seen with ET. that 1938 was fully transitioning and strengthening due to warm seclusion. I know it's been debated before...we obviously don't know it's exact structure when it made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 that 1938 was fully transitioning and strengthening due to warm seclusion. I know it's been debated before...we obviously don't know it's exact structure when it made landfall. Yeah I think that's what the consensus is. I didn't understand your question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 One can no longer say things are boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Someone with knowledge of all the good sites for model images please take the time to save the 12Z ECMWF images that wipe Southern New England off the map. So that months and years from now we can reflect and enjoy a good laugh about what we just witnessed a computer model do. Feel like I just watched the "It Could Happen Tomorrow: Southern New England" episode with that ECMWF run. In all seriousness though. I just read the entire thread during the last hour. And what was interesting to me is that every time a new model suite came in, it seemed like someone was saying that "this is the most extreme solution I have ever seen from a model". So if we are saying the trend is our friend (lol) then we are trending towards the most extreme solution possible. Either way what ever happens. It will definitely make this week a little more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah I think that's what the consensus is. I didn't understand your question. Well the NHC and just about everyone considers it a hurricane. This run just illustrates how it is possible to get a very strong low into SNE without all that much help from warm SSTs. That low strengthens because of baroclinic forces, not tropical ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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