Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think there are several ways to phrase your concerns... One would be to state that some of the recent runs of the Euro/Canadian would cause concerns for coastal flooding if they were to verify. Another...is to say you wake up in the middle of the night with visions of 20 foot storm surges flooding lower Manhattan. just sayin Not really though, because I was clear that it is theorized by FEMA - that is not my work. It's restated in that post because face it, you have a real chance there of the NW hook scenario. gee wiz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012102212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation tries to escape but gets captured into a super bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ggem wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 When comparing the GEFS, the differences arise from where else.....the Pacific of course. The flow is more progressive this go around as the upper level low under the AK ridge is flatter, thereby kicking down the west coast ridge. You can see this at hr 132 of the 12z GEFS vs hr 144 of the 00z GEFS. Not sure of hr 132 is out on Allan's page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know what they say, a day is not a day without a GGEM super-bomb. And now we wait to see if the Euro shows up with a bucket of kerosene or a bucket of cold water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Both the EURO and GGEM show this jog westward to near florida after crossing Cuba, looks supect but helps the storm to get captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Why is everything suspect to you? It makes sense where you look at the upper pattern to its NE. it cant go anywhere other than west for awhile. Both the EURO and GGEM show this jog westward to near florida after crossing Cuba, looks supect but helps the storm to get captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GGEM reminds me of some of the more extreme Irene bombing out solutions we saw in the days leading up to its run up the coast....944mb is pure fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Of all the whacked out GGEM solutions... this may be the most wacky I've ever seen. It seems like it reaches a new level up every year. Should be a fun winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GGEM reminds me of some of the more extreme Irene bombing out solutions we saw in the days leading up to its run up the coast....944mb is pure fantasy gets down to 939mb before reaching Jersey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The CMC still has the bomb (as usual, nothing surprising here), but despite the extremely low pressure, it took a small step backwards from its 0z solution. Note how the s/w is handled much more differently than the 0z run and looks much closer to the 0z ECM. 12z CMC hour 132: 0z CMC hour 144: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 td18 looks well on its way to becoming ts sandy looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm thinking the Euro begins the descent backwards at 12z ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 ah hahahahaha oh man look at the GONAPS mode ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In a way, you have the GFS typically being flat and the euro over amplifying things. It's possible both are at play, but who "wins" out? Anytime you have downstream events dependent on Pacific jet energy, good luck trying to figure out how things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We had this problem with the Boxing Day blizzard. Pacific assimilation is a nightmare. In a way, you have the GFS typically being flat and the euro over amplifying things. It's possible both are at play, but who "wins" out? Anytime you have downstream events dependent on Pacific jet energy, good luck trying to figure out how things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The CMC still has the bomb (as usual, nothing surprising here), but despite the extremely low pressure, it took a small step backwards from its 0z solution. Note how the s/w is handled much more differently than the 0z run and looks much closer to the 0z ECM. 12z CMC hour 132: 0z CMC hour 144: I understand why you are saying this but it's actually a little different - it's holding onto warm core characteristic longer on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmanbos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Anyone knows what's going on with the FSU site lately....http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Of all the whacked out GGEM solutions... this may be the most wacky I've ever seen. Of all the GGEM solutions in the world, this is the GGEM-iest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 FWIW, NOGAPS plows the hybrid low right into SNE at 180 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NOGAPS_12z/f180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's interesting how the GGEM is a lot quicker than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 FWIW, NOGAPS plows the hybrid low right into SNE at 180 http://www.meteo.psu...PS_12z/f180.gif Total destruction......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This is awesome. I forgot how fun model watching can be. Thanks to all the mets and knowledgable amateurs. I appreciate it. Some pretty funny runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's interesting how the GGEM is a lot quicker than the GFS Hypothetical for you, Ryan. Let's just say the possibility of the storm still looks good by Thursday o Friday...what are the chances that your viewers in Connecticut will wrap their brains around a tropical/sub-tropical system arriving in SNE just before Halloween? I think various authorities will really have to stress the potential for power outages to get everybody's attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know what they say, a day is not a day without a GGEM super-bomb. Tip posted something earlier about pushing the limits of what is physically possible, and I think the GGEM took that to heart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Full moon mania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Swartz synoptic seven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Full moon mania Szigszigityzoom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Hypothetical for you, Ryan. Let's just say the possibility of the storm still looks good by Thursday o Friday...what are the chances that your viewers in Connecticut will wrap their brains around a tropical/sub-tropical system arriving in SNE just before Halloween? I think various authorities will really have to stress the potential for power outages to get everybody's attention. I really hate the subtropical designation. I think it does more harm than good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.