weatherMA Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't wait for the JMA to come out and see what it has at 144 hours. Yeah if the JMA agrees with the Euro we can probably toss the gfs and lock in a life threatening storm, we are inside of a week now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 all in all, this run is a step back from the doomsday scenario, we lose the ridge out west and this dampens the wave heading east that would need to dig negatively and help capture sandy. Yeah flatter on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't wait for the JMA to come out and see what it has at 144 hours. UK is a slow ENE motion by 144 hrs BUT has a huge HFC center (24hr) change between 120-144 hours centered over N'rn WV. 140 decameter falls in 24 hour period. It also has the NA block weakern and drifting away from Newfoundland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Thats a pretty ridiculous statement to make 8 days out. How many damn qualifiers does he have to put in there before it's ok? I don't think there's anyone that's been in this forum more than a couple of days that can't handle it. This is not TV or the NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol at GFS nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol at GFS nonsense itll be back 18z. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol at GFS nonsense And what nonsense is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 UK is a slow ENE motion by 144 hrs BUT has a huge HFC center (24hr) change between 120-144 hours centered over N'rn WV. 140 decameter falls in 24 hour period. It also has the NA block weakern and drifting away from Newfoundland. What is an HFC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 And what nonsense is that? a non phased miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 UK 144 hr...pressure dashed yellow 2 mb intervals H 500 lt blue 30 decameter intervals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 IIRC, the Whitestone was closed down due to excessive sway in winds gusting into the 60s. We had 8" of paste in NNJ, largest Nov snowfall I saw there (1950-72.) We (the builders I then worked for) put roofing felt on a framed/sheathed/no-windows-yet house in the windy dark the evening before - lots of fun - and the next morning every square inch of the inside floors was snowcovered, but at least the later melting didn't create cold showers coming through the plywood joints. I was at a Jet game on November 10th at Shea during a noreaster...It was sleeting mixed with rain...There were two noreasters in two days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 a non phased miss And what makes you qualified to know that it is not withing the realm of possible solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 a non phased miss I think the issue is because the trough is having a hard time progressing across to the east coast in large part due to the displaced 50/50 that has moved down to the SE of Newfoundland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Thats a pretty ridiculous statement to make 8 days out. Tip puts a lot of confidence in teleconnections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you look at the H5 pattern, The GFS and the euro are different with what s/w wants to amplify and also the timing. I thought the ridging in the 12z GFS to the east of the storm was better this go around. What was tricky was that at hr 132, a s/w really amplifies in the Ohio Valley, but misses the storm. It then stretches out the H5 pattern and the next s/w rounding the bend that could capture Sandy, just cannot do such a thing. The 00z euro takes that s/w and at hr 156 really goes to town with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Imagine if it kept going west and hit the Yucatan somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Besides whatever the heck Sandy decides to to. It really does boil down to that cut off low that psubliz07 pointed out. How many vort lobes spin off of that and at what intervals? ~Snet form a deivce that cannot speel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 the same thing that qualifies you to be a mod. Can't wait for the next 7 days of throwing out every model that isn't a direct hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Thats a pretty ridiculous statement to make 8 days out. No, it's not - There are millions of people along the Megalopolis, and the statement was couched in "It can't hurt to be prepared" - which means, you're taking this out of context, for what? To impugn - don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 lovin' the weenie strategy start with hyping the most extreme solution, and work your way backwards as the models step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What is an HFC? HFC = Height Fall Center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 144 people in this thread on a D7 threat. This really proves how boring the weather has been for nearly a year around here. I would probably not start worrying about every model run for another 2-3 days at the earliest. If there is a lesson that is learned so often in meteorology, its that there is a reason that exotic or extreme scenarios on the models rarely pan out...those events are extreme for a reason. We have an outside chance to get something crazy due to the blocking setup in the north Atlantic...but it could easily just be a strong fall Nor' Easter or a northern stream rain event with not much fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 UK 144 hr...pressure dashed yellow 2 mb intervals H 500 lt blue 30 decameter intervals: Here's the H500 height falls for the 24 hr period between 120-144 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 No, it's not - There are millions of people along the Megalopolis, and the statement was couched in "It can't hurt to be prepared" - which means, you're taking this out of context, for what? To impugn - don't bother. I think there are several ways to phrase your concerns... One would be to state that some of the recent runs of the Euro/Canadian would cause concerns for coastal flooding if they were to verify. Another...is to say you wake up in the middle of the night with visions of 20 foot storm surges flooding lower Manhattan. just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Check out the GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 No, it's not - There are millions of people along the Megalopolis, and the statement was couched in "It can't hurt to be prepared" - which means, you're taking this out of context, for what? To impugn - don't bother. I don't see how the 00z Euro would be any worse than11/25/50. The pressure gradient strength and shape is very comparable, The timing of high tide would be the only variable that could make it worse. Nogapaps landfalls in E central CT. It's hard to go east of the Nogaps, GFshas some balls if it's rights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know what they say, a day is not a day without a GGEM super-bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Wow at the GGEM lololol 944 mb low over S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 geezus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Of all the whacked out GGEM solutions... this may be the most wacky I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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