weatherMA Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Slightly OT but I have to share.... In intro to Met this morning the professor talked about how she saw "Facebook posts about possible big storm a week from now". She just got back from being away and hadn't checked anything so she said we would check the gfs (6z) to see what that had....straight OTS. Too bad we hadn't checked the EURO from last night lol...but usually we check the gfs only every day in class...I don't think Kevin would approve. Anyway, thought it was kind of funny, we'll see what the 12z gfs brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the upper air pattern sort of starts to look Nov 1950-esque...except our version here has a TC getting absorbed into it. Both have the huge negative anomaly over the central Apps of course and the monster high anomaly over Nova Scotia to New Foundland/lower Davis Straight and a western ridge/GOA low. Obviously it takes a lot of things to align correctly to actually get it to happen. It would be an amazing event to see, thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 So what are the met's opinions now on the phase? More likely or less likely now after seeing the GFS, ECMWF, and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It looks pretty good on satellite its looking much better than it did this morning and better than i expected at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 this storm would fit in perfectly with some storms from the early 1950's...That's if it happens of course...1951 had a major storm in early November...Then a blast of cold for a few days...I wonder what the models had for last years October 29th storm a week before it happened?...who would have thought we were going to see the greatest October snowstorm on record?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 STEP 1, actually get a TD on the map - done! That’s probably gusts of wind approaching 100 mph impacting the upper MA (possibly New England) given a 00Z GGEM/Euro operational blend. I fear a plausible worst case scenario storm surge focus/augmentation approaching 20ft possibly breaching into lower Manhattan. The NW hooking and accelarating hurricane (in this case transitioning hybrid) has been theorized by FEMA and the more I pour over this stuff it gets difficult to separate these depictions. We can play games with over solicitation of events and hyping and all that crap but at the end of the day, these models are balanced well against the lead teleconnectors and are unfortunately trying to signal a potentially dire scenario - it just is what it is. A rare anomaly in the blocking construct over the Atlantic Basin leaves any TC no choice but to careen headlong into the cold trough, formulating a kind of Perfect Storm scenario, only not 700 nautical miles out at sea that then retrogrades toward the Coast. This time tucked into the East Coastal water ways and thoroughfares. All I can say is, if you live coastal communities from the Del Marva to Maine, you may want to take some time now to consider getting your affairs in order – in the minimum as a precautionary measure, such that if you need to act quickly you will be prepared to do so. It can't hurt to be prepared. Last night I wrote up another thread trying to get people to be aware that there are signals abounding for important cyclogenesis regardless of any TC involvement. But operational guidance just refuses to budge on the infusion scenario. I just see this as better than a median chance of occurring do to the governing pointers. By the way, the 00z GFS was less than rational looking - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Nov 1968: I remember this storm as young one...The NY Daily News Headline the next day was Real Whistler Wallops East Coast. Picture on front page was of cars abandoned on the Whitestone bridge and motorists fleeing back towards the toll plaza. Very high winds with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Very distinct split on the GFS there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Nov 1968: I remember this storm as young one...The NY Daily News Headline the next day was Real Whistler Wallops East Coast. Picture on front page was of cars abandoned on the Whitestone bridge and motorists fleeing back towards the toll plaza. Very high winds with the storm You know what' interesting about that 500mb surface - that looks real -AO like. The mean latitude of the westerlies is suppressed S everywhere. One thing I've noted to self in the past is that establishing good baroclinic "tendency" in the middle latitude requires a bit of -AO for obvious reasons - and when I see charts like that it just re-affirms that understanding. Also, what did that chart looking like 12 hours later ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Very distinct split on the GFS there. I think the GFS has recently been out to lunch out in the Atlantic and that transitively is detrimental to how it handles the upstream evolution over eastern North American and adjacent western Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Nov 1968: I remember this storm as young one...The NY Daily News Headline the next day was Real Whistler Wallops East Coast. Picture on front page was of cars abandoned on the Whitestone bridge and motorists fleeing back towards the toll plaza. Very high winds with the storm IIRC, the Whitestone was closed down due to excessive sway in winds gusting into the 60s. We had 8" of paste in NNJ, largest Nov snowfall I saw there (1950-72.) We (the builders I then worked for) put roofing felt on a framed/sheathed/no-windows-yet house in the windy dark the evening before - lots of fun - and the next morning every square inch of the inside floors was snowcovered, but at least the later melting didn't create cold showers coming through the plywood joints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 this GFS run is looking more favorable for phasing than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Tim Kelly's thoughts: East Coast Phaser Possible- Halloween Hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I think the GFS has recently been out to lunch out in the Atlantic and that transitively is detrimental to how it handles the upstream evolution over eastern North American and adjacent western Atlantic. Ya looks like this run of the GFS has the tropical system much closer to Florida then previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ya looks like this run of the GFS has the tropical system much closer to Florida then previous run. The system is also stronger and tilted more to the north than the 6z run, and the s/w drops a bit more south as well. It's pointless to model hug as we're still a week out and the models are still going to change with the ridging NE of Sandy, the Atlantic low and the s/w, although this run does look more favorable than the previous runs. Regardless of what this run shows I'm more interested though in seeing if the CMC and ECM still show the monster storm with their 12z runs, they've been stronger with this than the GFS from the start (except for the ECM which started a bit late). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 IIRC, the Whitestone was closed down due to excessive sway in winds gusting into the 60s. We had 8" of paste in NNJ, largest Nov snowfall I saw there (1950-72.) We (the builders I then worked for) put roofing felt on a framed/sheathed/no-windows-yet house in the windy dark the evening before - lots of fun - and the next morning every square inch of the inside floors was snowcovered, but at least the later melting didn't create cold showers coming through the plywood joints. You're right. A seconday system developed along DE/NJ that night and moved north inland north and west of NYC got wet snow the night after the primary storm. Even had some slushy accums in the Bronx where I was living at the time. IIRC winds were sustained in the 60s with gusts to over hurricane force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The system is also stronger and tilted more to the north than the 6z run, and the s/w drops a bit more south as well. It's pointless to model hug as we're still a week out and the models are still going to change with the ridging NE of Sandy, the Atlantic low and the s/w, although this run does look more favorable than the previous runs. Regardless of what this run shows I'm more interested though in seeing if the CMC and ECM still show the monster storm with their 12z runs, they've been stronger with this than the GFS from the start (except for the ECM which started a bit late). Yes I agree just thought I would make an assessment from this current run. Like everyone has said still a long way off from having a solution with this storm or no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 12z GFS shifts a bit to the west, but at 120 hours appears to have taken a turn back to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 126h on the 12z gfs definitely still looks like its headed OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 this GFS run is looking more favorable for phasing than 00z the trough orientation is still all wrong here though. We need it deeper/more negatively tilted dropping into the ohio valley, and that would involve losing whatever energy is dropping down the back side of the trough simultaneously over the new/western canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Tip is on board With a better than median chance It is interesting to see the different MET perspectives. Some buy the most destructive and disruptive solutions (like on twitter last night), others straight out dismiss the exotic solutions, most are middle of the road cautious with good reason, and then there are also ones who straight up are praying for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 the trough orientation is still all wrong here though. We need it deeper/more negatively tilted dropping into the ohio valley, and that would involve losing whatever energy is dropping down the back side of the trough simultaneously over the new/western canada I agree. The mean trough on the GFS, looks too broad and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Meanwhile: THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 You know what' interesting about that 500mb surface - that looks real -AO like. The mean latitude of the westerlies is suppressed S everywhere. One thing I've noted to self in the past is that establishing good baroclinic "tendency" in the middle latitude requires a bit of -AO for obvious reasons - and when I see charts like that it just re-affirms that understanding. Also, what did that chart looking like 12 hours later ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 all in all, this run is a step back from the doomsday scenario, we lose the ridge out west and this dampens the wave heading east that would need to dig negatively and help capture sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Much less ridging out west even compared to 06z, It really flattens out the trough east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 STEP 1, actually get a TD on the map - done! I fear a plausible worst case scenario storm surge focus/augmentation approaching 20ft possibly breaching into lower Manhattan. The NW hooking and accelarating hurricane (in this case transitioning hybrid) has been theorized by FEMA and the more I pour over this stuff it gets difficult to separate these depictions. We can play games with over solicitation of events and hyping and all that crap but at the end of the day, these models are balanced well against the lead teleconnectors and are unfortunately trying to signal a potentially dire scenario - it just is what it is. Thats a pretty ridiculous statement to make 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't wait for the JMA to come out and see what it has at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Can't wait for the JMA to come out and see what it has at 144 hours. Isn't it already out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Nov 1968: I remember this storm as young one...The NY Daily News Headline the next day was Real Whistler Wallops East Coast. Picture on front page was of cars abandoned on the Whitestone bridge and motorists fleeing back towards the toll plaza. Very high winds with the storm I was in Ithaca for that storm....great early season snow dump! I remember betting this guy who said "flurries and nothing more". I collected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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