CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Exactly. Keep an eye up stream. I thought NY Retro was 2/10 that is why I brought it up, the one Pete got 48" while the rest of us poured and dryslotted. The block looks as intense at least. Even without a TS should be an interesting evolution. Not boring I meant NY as in New Years, the one occurring on January 2. Sorry I wasn't clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Some of you may be tired of the 00z posts, but I had to share this 500mb image... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 the euro gives DC its winter avg snowfall before nov 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Jamie O posted a Euro snowfall map for that run...it was showing 3 ft in western PA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yup was just looking at that. Not quite but sort of a PRE look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 once again I disagree with this, at this point its far too early to even be calling for a TS to form let along a strong one or a cane by friday. I favor something subtropical over anything right now. Guess NorEaster27 knows more than the trained mets at NHC... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The surf forums have major wood over this storm. "Start scheduling flex time" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 renumber message td18 at 11am but not official yet BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al992012_al182012.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201210221416 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The euro is like a redux of november 1950...only this would involve a hurricane absorbing into a more modified polar airmass..I can dream P.S. November 1950 had no tropical system involved in it, i I'm just referring to the anomalous pattern and storm track shown (along with 40" of snow in the Appalacians lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 We have TD 18! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 We have TD 18! Yes, Just looking at the advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Jamie O posted a Euro snowfall map for that run...it was showing 3 ft in western PA lol I doubt it seriously of course but many of us in the overall Northeast probably see our first flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 curious to see the track when it becomes available ...Tropical depression forms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea... ...Tropical storm watch issued for Jamaica... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 See on the forecast advisory the 120 fcst posn has it as SUBTROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 See on the forecast advisory the 120 fcst posn has it as SUBTROPICAL Yes... love when the NHC tries to confuse the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The euro is like a redux of november 1950...only this would involve a hurricane absorbing into a more modified polar airmass..I can dream P.S. November 1950 had no tropical system involved in it, i I'm just referring to the anomalous pattern and storm track shown (along with 40" of snow in the Appalacians lol) Yeah the upper air pattern sort of starts to look Nov 1950-esque...except our version here has a TC getting absorbed into it. Both have the huge negative anomaly over the central Apps of course and the monster high anomaly over Nova Scotia to New Foundland/lower Davis Straight and a western ridge/GOA low. Obviously it takes a lot of things to align correctly to actually get it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yes... love when the NHC tries to confuse the general public. While I understand the terminology I hate the ST terminology for public consumption. Had some e-mails from folks asking does a SUB-tropical storm mean its not as bad as a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 While I understand the terminology I hate the ST terminology for public consumption. Had some e-mails from folks asking does a SUB-tropical storm mean its not as bad as a tropical storm. Yes it is so frustrating. Sort of like with Noel just ditching the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The NHC expects TD 18 to be near hurricane strength Wednesday near Jamaica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The NHC expects TD 18 to be near hurricane strength Wednesday near Jamaica. That can't happen per Noreaster27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That can't happen per Noreaster27. /climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 /climo Love the avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 NHC should hire him. Hes the expert. I mean I went through 10 years of college to get where I am now and he knows better. That can't happen per Noreaster27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 /climo NHC has it subtropical on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 NHC has it subtropical on friday /math Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 It looks pretty good on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Full moon on Monday. It's not a monster tide but it's still +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah the upper air pattern sort of starts to look Nov 1950-esque...except our version here has a TC getting absorbed into it. Both have the huge negative anomaly over the central Apps of course and the monster high anomaly over Nova Scotia to New Foundland/lower Davis Straight and a western ridge/GOA low. Obviously it takes a lot of things to align correctly to actually get it to happen. Again another no TC involvement scenario... the week of Nov 11-15 1968 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 1950: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 hazel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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