am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 once again I disagree with this, at this point its far too early to even be calling for a TS to form let along a strong one or a cane by friday. I favor something subtropical over anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Very selfishly looking long term, a BM East path is much more preferred. Any LR modeling needs to be looked at suspiciously until this evolves. Back of my mind remembered the week leading up to last years highly anomalous event of a lot of denial..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 saying a strong TS or cane is "highly likely" by friday is a very aggreesive call, g/l with that. I would bet against you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 saying a strong TS or cane is "highly likely" by friday is a very aggreesive call, g/l with that. I would bet against you. Once again, you are bad at forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 saying a strong TS or cane is "highly likely" by friday is a very aggreesive call, g/l with that. I would bet against you. I will take Adam and the over, parlay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Couple of thoughts? The tropical system to me is the big if...what if it doesnt develop or gets stuck over Cuba/Hispanola and is a disorganized mess? Also, the Canadian has it coming inland over NC/VA--pretty far south of here--even Euro is more Del-marva hit so not sure what the SNE impact would be other than some rain and wind? maybe the mets can chime in on that scenario... If there is a very strong high to the north you could get a 12/1992 or 3/2010 scenario where an inane SE pressure gradient develops causing hurricane force winds. As of now the high on the Euro looks too far north to me and not strong enough. The winds are mainly a result of the low being around 950-960mb. I just don't know about the prospects at this time of the year for anything more than a strong TS making it up to VA or NC....especially since the system may have crossed Cuba and would get up the coast pretty quickly after the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 For all the Toronto Blizzard's out there, Hazel was actually the worst natural disaster in Canadian history...killed 81 people in epic flooding in Toronto. I have relatives from Canada that talk about Hazel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 noreaster27 does this all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 saying a strong TS or cane is "highly likely" by friday is a very aggreesive call, g/l with that. I would bet against you. Tell me why that would be unlikely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 saying a strong TS or cane is "highly likely" by friday is a very aggreesive call, g/l with that. I would bet against you. Why do you say this, what is your reasoning? Note climo isn't a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I have relatives from Canada that talk about Hazel. BUF got about 3" and ROC got 2/3" of inch. Pretty crazy gradient. Toronto must have been right on the cold side of the stationary front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Climo said I was supposed to get 43" of snow last winter. Not 25% of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Posting for historical review and pornographic pleasure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Tell me why that would be unlikely? I said its not highly likely, highly likely implies like a 95 percent chance of happening. Right now the environment for a TS to develop is pretty cr8p...full of shear and dry air. While it does look like the environment improves, i would bet against a strong TS or cane develping by friday given climo, land interaction, and the trends of this season. Its late oct not september. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 BUF got about 3" and ROC got 2/3" of inch. Pretty crazy gradient. Toronto must have been right on the cold side of the stationary front. They lived in Kitchener and said there was pretty good damage from it. I didn't get specifics, but that was the first time I've ever heard about Hazel. This was back when I was in elementary school. It was funny since I thought my uncle was exaggerating and couldn't figure out how they could have such high impact so far inland. Well I didn't know extra-tropical transition in 5th grade..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I said its not highly likely, highly likely implies like a 95 percent chance of happening. Right now the environment for a TS to develop is pretty cr8p...full of shear and dry air. While it does look like the environment improves, i would bet against a strong TS or cane develping by friday given climo, land interaction, and the trends of this season. Its late oct not september. It's sitting in bathwater down there. And even if it starts to show signs of being asymmetric warm, you know it easily can have 55 or 60kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I said its not highly likely, highly likely implies like a 95 percent chance of happening. Right now the environment for a TS to develop is pretty cr8p...full of shear and dry air. While it does look like the environment improves, i would bet against a strong TS or cane develping by friday given climo, land interaction, and the trends of this season. Its late oct not september. Ampsu is one of the best tropical forecasters around, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The best news that would probably come out of this would be that some tree damage would likely be mitigated by the relatively early foliage this year....By the 29-30th most areas down to NYC and C-NJ will probably have peaked or be slightly past it which would probably enable alot of leaf drop to occur as the winds increased maybe saving some damage...certainly this would be the case for most of New England and the interior parts of NJ/SRN NY and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I said its not highly likely, highly likely implies like a 95 percent chance of happening. Right now the environment for a TS to develop is pretty cr8p...full of shear and dry air. While it does look like the environment improves, i would bet against a strong TS or cane develping by friday given climo, land interaction, and the trends of this season. Its late oct not september. NHC/Adam > you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 They lived in Kitchener and said there was pretty good damage from it. I didn't get specifics, but that was the first time I've ever heard about Hazel. This was back when I was in elementary school. It was funny since I thought my uncle was exaggerating and couldn't figure out how they could have such high impact so far inland. Well I didn't know extra-tropical transition in 5th grade..lol. Yeah I think it was a rain thing as opposed to wind...I'd doubt they got much wind at all in Toronto. I still haven't seen figures for how much rainfall it really was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 arguing about if it will develop or not = boring Canadian ENS seem split between Euro OP and GFS OP, easy to see it all comes down to phase capture by ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Canadian ensemble mean actually takes the low and brings it back NW towards LI. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 alot of posters including myself should just stop posting and watch the pros on here alot of valuable stuff is getting pushed back for useless post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 GFS ENS clustered around the Op but a few members like the capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The Canadian ensemble mean actually takes the low and brings it back NW towards LI. FWIW. In Phils dream... Usually boring wins, last capture like that was 2/10 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 In Phils dream... Usually boring wins, last capture like that was 2/10 right? The NY retro storm was a capture too. They were similar in that it took strong blocking to cause it, but it's easier to do that with mid latitude cyclones. This would be a much rarer feat to accomplish. However, there are some key players involved like a deepening trough in the Midwest along with very strong -NAO blocking, so this isn't something to immediately brush off at all. You still can have impacts from rain and even a developing low as the trough goes negatively tilted...all indirectly related. Key interactions such as strength of the Carb low, the s/w that eventually tries to pick up the low and move it NW, as well as the position and strength of blocking all need to be worked out. If anyone out there is well versed in H5 patterns....you know there are several key aspects that have to work out perfectly to accomplish something like the euro op has. So for now, we wait and see how guidance handles everything over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The NY retro storm was a capture too. They were similar in that it took strong blocking to cause it, but it's easier to do that with mid latitude cyclones. This would be a much rarer feat to accomplish. However, there are some key players involved like a deepening trough in the Midwest along with very strong -NAO blocking, so this isn't something to immediately brush off at all. You still can have impacts from rain and even a developing low as the trough goes negatively tilted...all indirectly related. Key interactions such as strength of the Carb low, the s/w that eventually tries to pick up the low and move it NW, as well as the position and strength of blocking all need to be worked out. If anyone out there is well versed in H5 patterns....you know there are several key aspects that have to work out perfectly to accomplish something like the euro op has. So for now, we wait and see how guidance handles everything over the next few days. Really good post, Scooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The best news that would probably come out of this would be that some tree damage would likely be mitigated by the relatively early foliage this year....By the 29-30th most areas down to NYC and C-NJ will probably have peaked or be slightly past it which would probably enable alot of leaf drop to occur as the winds increased maybe saving some damage...certainly this would be the case for most of New England and the interior parts of NJ/SRN NY and PA. Uhh... it's the 22nd and the leaves have barely begun to change color in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The NY retro storm was a capture too. They were similar in that it took strong blocking to cause it, but it's easier to do that with mid latitude cyclones. This would be a much rarer feat to accomplish. However, there are some key players involved like a deepening trough in the Midwest along with very strong -NAO blocking, so this isn't something to immediately brush off at all. You still can have impacts from rain and even a developing low as the trough goes negatively tilted...all indirectly related. Key interactions such as strength of the Carb low, the s/w that eventually tries to pick up the low and move it NW, as well as the position and strength of blocking all need to be worked out. If anyone out there is well versed in H5 patterns....you know there are several key aspects that have to work out perfectly to accomplish something like the euro op has. So for now, we wait and see how guidance handles everything over the next few days. Exactly. Keep an eye up stream. I thought NY Retro was 2/10 that is why I brought it up, the one Pete got 48" while the rest of us poured and dryslotted. The block looks as intense at least. Even without a TS should be an interesting evolution. Not boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Uhh... it's the 22nd and the leaves have barely begun to change color in Central Park. i don't think leaf coverage is going to matter if the euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.