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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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Pulled from the SE thread

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF

HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED

BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL

DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE

SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR

REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

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western side is always the moisture laden side, while eastern side is the high wind side..right around center has both

Ehh..... The Nws side could be windy due to the ET/barclonic enhancement, especially if there's a warm seclusion.likely, given this:

7a4a3uzu.jpg

Very interesting graphic.. More tropical than "nor Easter" at that point.

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00z Euro would be game over for the DE/NJ beaches.....some of those places from beach to bay are measured in feet and yards and the wall of water this thing would push from the Bahamas to the Eastern Seaboard would be massive.....I am all for big storms, but I have a little place in Bethany Beach, DE and I am seriously concerned....

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EMs are starting to coordinate tomorrow is what I am getting. I am a volley FF in Delaware and the chatter is starting. You would think with 9-15 foot surge profiles and predicted moderate to major inland large creek/river flooding that OCMD to Manasquan Inlet, NJ would see mandatory evacs. Long Island, NY, anywhere along the tidal Delaware....

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possible evacuations along beaches if this type of track continues?

Oh god yea, not just the barrier islands either. Our County Fire Coordinators are going to be in meetings all day tomorrow in reference to this. What's worrisome with my area, we had a Dan breach here after Irene, and lost one of our lakes because of it, and this would make Irene look like child's play. Also, we still have a ton of damaged trees from the derecho around here, wind damage would be crazy.

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From NCEP:

000

NOUS42 KWNO 240925

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD

0920Z WED OCT 24 2012

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY TO BE HOISTED AT 12Z..TROPICAL STORM SANDY

TYPE: Regional CWD

NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL PARTICIPATE IN

CWD TO PROVIDE A RELIABLE FLOW DATA AND MODEL PRODUCTION DURING

THIS EVENT.

REASON: A Tropical Storm Watch has been hoisted for portions of

Southern Florida due to Tropical Storm Sandy.

CWD WILL RUN FROM 24/1200Z UNTIL 29/0000Z.

NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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HPC latest disco:

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012

...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC

AND NORTHEAST...

FINAL...

MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL

ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A

CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND

GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT

FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN

TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF

WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF

DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF

THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE

AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA DAY 5.

THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE

LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO

BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND

HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS,

WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED

VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER

THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS

OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE

MEASURABLE SNOW.

CISCO

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