Heisy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Post some images. http://www.ecmwf.int...2412!!chart.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EURO wants to come onshore near Wallops Island, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 935 mb at 120 hours!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 cape may at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Crashes in Sea Isle at 132hrs at 960mb per NYC thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow, CM gets annihilated at 132! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro can't be much uglier for NJ/DE. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro can't be much uglier for NJ/DE. Wow. Yeah. That would be awful for NJ with that landfall. 935 mb. Wow. Looks like we're going to have to wait a while for consistency on a general location for landfall. Feeling pretty confident now that at least this does not go out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Holy ****..pure weather porn and deduction VERBATIM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Unreal. Just look at how much this storm will impact areas. Amazing how the Euro has remain on steady course for this big threat next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The Mount Holly weather briefing is sobering to say the least. At Neshaminy Creek, 7 of 42 rainfall model members predict major flooding six days out. WTF. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The consistency of the Euro from ten days out has been amazing. My hat is off to the guys and gals that programmed that model if it comes to fruition. GFS will need some work lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 scary situation at this point, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro 132hr from NE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Winds based on the Euro (in kts) 117 hours 120 hours 126 hours 132 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It moves from Cape May up through PHL into Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's funny, this track cuts our qpf down on the Euro but the shore takes a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pulled from the SE thread SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1813Z WED OCT 24 2012 DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR REGION OR THE SDM... ***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS*** WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY... CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 how destructive would this be to the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 holy smokes at Euro. unbelievable...almost every year there's a huge halloween storm. coincidence or something else... ? hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Oct.28/29 seems to be the new Dec.5th these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 It's funny, this track cuts our qpf down on the Euro but the shore takes a beating. western side is always the moisture laden side, while eastern side is the high wind side..right around center has both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 western side is always the moisture laden side, while eastern side is the high wind side..right around center has both Ehh..... The Nws side could be windy due to the ET/barclonic enhancement, especially if there's a warm seclusion.likely, given this: Very interesting graphic.. More tropical than "nor Easter" at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 00z Euro would be game over for the DE/NJ beaches.....some of those places from beach to bay are measured in feet and yards and the wall of water this thing would push from the Bahamas to the Eastern Seaboard would be massive.....I am all for big storms, but I have a little place in Bethany Beach, DE and I am seriously concerned.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 possible evacuations along beaches if this type of track continues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 EMs are starting to coordinate tomorrow is what I am getting. I am a volley FF in Delaware and the chatter is starting. You would think with 9-15 foot surge profiles and predicted moderate to major inland large creek/river flooding that OCMD to Manasquan Inlet, NJ would see mandatory evacs. Long Island, NY, anywhere along the tidal Delaware.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 possible evacuations along beaches if this type of track continues? Oh god yea, not just the barrier islands either. Our County Fire Coordinators are going to be in meetings all day tomorrow in reference to this. What's worrisome with my area, we had a Dan breach here after Irene, and lost one of our lakes because of it, and this would make Irene look like child's play. Also, we still have a ton of damaged trees from the derecho around here, wind damage would be crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 From NCEP: 000NOUS42 KWNO 240925 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 0920Z WED OCT 24 2012 CRITICAL WEATHER DAY TO BE HOISTED AT 12Z..TROPICAL STORM SANDY TYPE: Regional CWD NCEP, NWSTG, NCF, NWS SOUTHERN REGION WILL PARTICIPATE IN CWD TO PROVIDE A RELIABLE FLOW DATA AND MODEL PRODUCTION DURING THIS EVENT. REASON: A Tropical Storm Watch has been hoisted for portions of Southern Florida due to Tropical Storm Sandy. CWD WILL RUN FROM 24/1200Z UNTIL 29/0000Z. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 HPC latest disco: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012 VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012 ...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST... FINAL... MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA DAY 5. THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE MEASURABLE SNOW. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.