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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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Understand that we won't be dealing with a hurricane at that point, but

Euro depicts winds of between 70 and 80 knots at 850 mb over parts of NJ at 168hrs. What would that translate to winds at the surface?

Thanks

Almost just a guess... 50-60 mph at the surface.

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18z gfs is further west and trough digging more at 92.

still a miss but every model run is like 50-100 miles further west. This run you can really see the ridge that develops over the eastern seaboard is much more amplified, thus carving out a better trof. It continues to take baby steps. Interesting to see ens members again.

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still a miss but every model run is like 50-100 miles further west. This run you can really see the ridge that develops over the eastern seaboard is much more amplified, thus carving out a better trof. It continues to take baby steps. Interesting to see ens members again.

Yeah baby steps. Gets captured well OTS and curves back to hit Nova Scotia.

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As of 18z, only 3 GFS members (besides the Op) take Sandy out to sea. The rest are recurves. Also notice that the farthest south solutions, those affecting the Carolinas and Delmarva, are missing on the 18z GEFS, which is consistent with the Euro's general northward trend.

I'm going to make a (somewhat) bold call and say that by 12z Wed the GFS Op will show a full recurve.

at201218_ensmodel.gif

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I'd be interested in knowing from the Mets on here as to which set of model runs will cause them to feel more comfortable about the players on the field and the eventual outcome regardless of what the model madness shows. 12z Friday? Thursday? later? At some point, Met skill takes over when the features are known. So when is it?

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