dryslotted Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 difficult to gauge how fooked we are if this verifies ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Geez, Euro looks like hazel minus the same track! Havent been around for a while.....do we still ride the "Euro is king" train here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 difficult to gauge how fooked we are if this verifies ... for saving grace, the winds would be from the north and west instead of do east like nyc and sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 for saving grace, the winds would be from the north and west instead of do east like nyc and sne Yeah, Long Island and southern New England would be in some deep trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Pokies and SNY could have a crushing snowfall in feet also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 for saving grace, the winds would be from the north and west instead of do east like nyc and sne What wind speeds we looking at though here in SE PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gibson16 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 can anybody post a snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 JB's tweet 85 kts sustained? Seriously? It'll likely be nontropical at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro depiction I believe that was the 00z run this one is the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro depiction Where are these other guys getting 3' off this for central pa? Or is this the beginning or middle of the storm and not all the way through? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I believe that was the 00z run this one is the 12z run. yup, my bad, sorry, keyboard error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 12z euro, FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A 946mb vortex hitting Long Island would equate to a strong category three hurricane although it will be extratropical at that time. Category Three Hurricane Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 111-129 miles per hour Damage Category: Extensive Approximate Pressure: 964-945 mb Approximate Storm Surge: 9-12 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 A 946mb vortex hitting Long Island would equate to a strong category three hurricane although it will be extratropical at that time. Category Three Hurricane Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 111-129 miles per hour Damage Category: Extensive Approximate Pressure: 964-945 mb Approximate Storm Surge: 9-12 feet ...and it won't have Cat 3 wind with it despite that low of a pressure. The likelihood of this being tropical to Cape Cod is almost next-to-zero given its slow movement north and the baroclinic influence on it as it moves northward. Irene had 958 pressure and was low cat 1 wind-wise as it was weakening/undergoing transition to nontrop. Regardless, it'll be a nasty storm IF that scenario verifies...and to get a 940 mb hybrid entity at this latitude in October is awfully, awfully rare to pull off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 What wind speeds we looking at though here in SE PA? who knows its way to far out in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 329 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012 VALID 12Z FRI OCT 26 2012 - 12Z TUE OCT 30 2012 ...POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR STORM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... UPDATED THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 USING THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE ENSEMBLE MEAN, WITH A SMALL INCORPORATION OF THE 00Z/23 EUROPEAN CENTRE DETERMINISTIC MODEL TO LEND MORE DEFINITION TO THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENTS ACROSS THE NATION. USED THE MOST RECENT FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY THROUGH DAY 5, WITH A CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DAYS 6 AND 7 BASED ON THE ECENS MEAN. THE 00Z/23 GEM GLOBAL CONTINUES TO CLUSTER WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF SANDY ONCE IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD THE SHARP UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL HAVE SEVERAL RUNS OF CONTINUITY NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS EVENT, WITH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS LESS STABLE. THERE HAVE BEEN GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/GEM CAMP FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF MODEL CYCLES, PUTTING THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS IN A BROADER FRAMEWORK WITH THEIR TRACK OF SANDY WELL OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. WILL BE UPDATING THE TRACK OF SANDY THROUGH DAY 5 FOR THE FINAL PACKAGE WITH THE ADVENT OF THE NEW NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST, AND ITS BEHAVIOR AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THEREAFTER AS PER OUR HOTLINE COORDINATION. FINAL... ELECTED TO STAY THE COURSE BY KEEPING THE MAJOR EAST COAST STORM IN PLAY FOR THE FINAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 DETERMINISTIC GFS SENDS SANDY'S CIRCULATION OUT PAST BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, WHILE THE 12Z/23 GEFS MEAN INCORPORATES IT ALONG THE EAST COAST IN LINE WITH THE HPC MANUAL FORECAST. THE 12Z/23 GEM GLOBAL KEEPS SANDY OUT OF REACH OF THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA, THOUGH LIKE THE LATEST GFS, IT IS PERHAPS BEST TO REGARD SUCH A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AS A SLIGHTLY SOUPED-UP ENSEMBLE MEMBER. THE 12Z/23 ECMWF STILL INCORPORATES AN EXTREMELY DEEP POST-TROPICAL SANDY INTO THE MID-LEVEL PIVOT POINT OF THE POLAR JET IN THE VICINITY OF LONG ISLAND EARLY NEXT TUESDAY, THE DYNAMIC TRANSFER RESULTING IN A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 932MB. THEREIN LIES THE STORM'S MENACE- A POWERHOUSE CAPABLE OF WHIPPING THE ATLANTIC INTO A FRENZY AND CHURNING UP DANGEROUS TIDES. OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE COINCIDENCE OF THE FULL MOON ON SUNDAY, OFTEN A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN HISTORICAL EVENTS. THE OCEAN EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM MAY STILL BE REALIZED EVEN IF POST-TROPICAL SANDY DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES. BESIDES THE WIND, THE OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAINS, WITH HEAVY SNOWS POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HYBRID CIRCULATION WHERE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR RUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. HAVE PREFERRED THE EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE FOR HANDLING OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW, ITS SYNOPTIC NUANCES BEST SERVING THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES WHERE THE FLOW OPENS UP IN THE WAKE OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE EASTERN TROUGH. CISCO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 What wind speeds we looking at though here in SE PA? who knows its way to far out in time Agree with tombo it's too far out to say *what* will happen but this is the Euro verbatim on wind in kts. We've had much worse than this. NE gets plastered though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC Ens through Sunday 2 AM is holding serve to last night's track. Edit: through Monday night pretty much the same thinking from the mean...parallel to the coast, close brush with Cape Cod...but nudged a tiny bit east from 00z. Not a significant nudge east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 I think I remember Kocin saying in his book that great noreasters happen frequently when the NAO is rising out of a bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 EC Ens through Sunday 2 AM is holding serve to last night's track. Edit: through Monday night pretty much the same thinking from the mean...parallel to the coast, close brush with Cape Cod...but nudged a tiny bit east from 00z. Not a significant nudge east though. to add to this coastalwx said their may be some spread west with the isobars bending back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A 946mb vortex hitting Long Island would equate to a strong category three hurricane although it will be extratropical at that time. Category Three Hurricane Maximum Sustained Wind Speed: 111-129 miles per hour Damage Category: Extensive Approximate Pressure: 964-945 mb Approximate Storm Surge: 9-12 feet Except it won't have anything like the pressure gradient of a hurricane so the winds will be much lighter. Of course, I mean much lighter in a relative sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Forky said this in the sne thread "the mean looks stronger and further west to me. that elongation at 144 hrs suggests maybe some landfalls in s nj" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 Forky said this in the sne thread "the mean looks stronger and further west to me. that elongation at 144 hrs suggests maybe some landfalls in s nj" by 162 there's a bit of a jump east (that was my comp point in the other post since that's Monday night/Tues AM) but what he said is accurate re: 144. The mean is a good bit stronger as well...10 mb, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 by 162 there's a bit of a jump east (that was my comp point in the other post since that's Monday night/Tues AM) but what he said is accurate re: 144. The mean is a good bit stronger as well...10 mb, maybe more. I dont mean to call you out or anything im just giving other view points also. Much appreciated the the ens info you shared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Except it won't have anything like the pressure gradient of a hurricane so the winds will be much lighter. Of course, I mean much lighter in a relative sense. Understand that we won't be dealing with a hurricane at that point, but Euro depicts winds of between 70 and 80 knots at 850 mb over parts of NJ at 168hrs. What would that translate to winds at the surface? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Agree with tombo it's too far out to say *what* will happen but this is the Euro verbatim on wind in kts. We've had much worse than this. NE gets plastered though. Hopefully those winds are accurate and PHL is operational... taking the kiddies to see Mickey Mouse and leave at 7AM on Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 23, 2012 Author Share Posted October 23, 2012 I dont mean to call you out or anything im just giving other view points also. Much appreciated the the ens info you shared. Didn't think you did at all...was clarifying my comments a bit since forky had made that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Understand that we won't be dealing with a hurricane at that point, but Euro depicts winds of between 70 and 80 knots over parts of NJ at 168hrs. What would that translate to winds at the surface? Thanks i could see winds to strong tropical storm force maybe low end hurricane...inland i think best would be 50-60 max...in gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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