am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 what do they look like in terms of spread? Less spread than yesterday actually. There are very few ensemble members that miss everything. Most make landfall north of Boston to Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Two of 06z GFS members bring Sandy to MA coast. Wonder what's up with perturbation 9, second run where it is let's say robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Going to save this in the weenie folder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Wonder what's up with perturbation 9, second run where it is let's say robust. 9+10 are a complete phase. good signal for low heights in MA but no phase in other members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 0z GFS ens ind: 6z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 From Wes (usedtobe) in the MA forum.. "The european ens has come quite a bit west and now gives much more support to the ecmwf making this a really interesting forecast. The blocking the ens mean shows and the negative tilt trough increase the odds of the storm getting captured by the upper trough so I think Jason's (CWG) odds of over a 50% chance of someone along the east coast being impacted by the storm is now a pretty good call. We're still so far from the event lots can change but the strong blocking makes amplification of the approaching trough more likely than not which may make the overall pattern a little more predictable than normal. Still, the timing of the amplification and the how fast and where the storm initially tracks will help decide where the system actually goes. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 0z GFS ens ind: 6z: Interestingly, at 8am Monday, only four members bent back west. Now it looks like 10 are doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 It appears to be either a 50/50 split on the GFS ensembles between a fish and a bend-back at this point. If anything, the bend-back may even have 1 on the fish scenario as of 6z. A la Ray Martin, I checked southwest.com this morning, but MDW-PHL is running $213, which is a bit high for me. Unless we want to start a collection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure if this is Capt. Obvious or not but I followed the models handling of Irene closely and each run when it got to the NC coast and began phasing with the jet, models went nuts with the strength. I know the Euro and GGEM are phase happy in the medium range so I'm still skeptical of them but I just don't see this sub 950mb monster and agree with the HPC's strength of a still strong but nothing like that 920something the Nogaps had a couple days ago or the sub 950 on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not sure if this is Capt. Obvious or not but I followed the models handling of Irene closely and each run when it got to the NC coast and began phasing with the jet, models went nuts with the strength. I know the Euro and GGEM are phase happy in the medium range so I'm still skeptical of them but I just don't see this sub 950mb monster and agree with the HPC's strength of a still strong but nothing like that 920something the Nogaps had a couple days ago or the sub 950 on the Euro. Yup totally agree. But this could still be a $1b storm without getting down to 950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Yup totally agree. But this could still be a $1b storm without getting down to 950. Of course. Anytime you have an event like that hitting such a highly populated area 1 billion in damage is very possible. Most strong noreasters can get over a billion if they are blocked and move slowly. The first flakes in this area once again being in October would be kinda fun so I guess that New England track would give us the best chance at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs still taking small strides towards the euro and ggem with a deeper trof and trying to phase in the s/w rounding the base. This run continues to get closer with the phase with a little more involvement of the s/w. Another major difference is the location of sandy once the s/w starts to interact with it. The gfs is well east of the euro and ggem foreasted spots. So even when the gfs tries to phase it in, granted its later in the game the storm is just way to far ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A purely hypothetical question for some of the meteorologists here. If we have a hurricane in the Bahamas that fully transitions itself into an extratropical storm that approaches the EC with comparable strength, would we still get hurricane warnings or some other type of storm warning. If I’m correct, they called Hazel a hurricane all the way into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs still taking small strides towards the euro and ggem with a deeper trof and trying to phase in the s/w rounding the base. This run continues to get closer with the phase with a little more involvement of the s/w. Another major difference is the location of sandy once the s/w starts to interact with it. The gfs is well east of the euro and ggem foreasted spots. So even when the gfs tries to phase it in, granted its later in the game the storm is just way to far ots. Yeah baby steps. Lets see if the Euro/GGEM hold their ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Of course. Anytime you have an event like that hitting such a highly populated area 1 billion in damage is very possible. Most strong noreasters can get over a billion if they are blocked and move slowly. The first flakes in this area once again being in October would be kinda fun so I guess that New England track would give us the best chance at that. Back to back October snows for the area, now that would be ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 A purely hypothetical question for some of the meteorologists here. If we have a hurricane in the Bahamas that fully transitions itself into an extratropical storm that approaches the EC with comparable strength, would we still get hurricane warnings or some other type of storm warning. If I’m correct, they called Hazel a hurricane all the way into Canada. If/when it goes post-tropical, all tropical storm and hurricane watches/warnings will be discontinued. In their place will be gale, storm, and potentially hurricane force wind warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Few days ago the models IMO were bringing Sandy up the coast at a faster rate. Some of the big storm solutions were showing the initial shortwave going negative and phasing with Sandy. The GGEM especially was one of the models showing this. The big question now, since it looks like Sandy will take longer to come up the coast, is if a back side shortwave in the trough can phase with Sandy quick enough to capture the low. This idea of the 2nd wave phasing with Sandy adds to the chances of frozen precip in the higher elevations of the interior since more cold air will be available from the delay in phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Few days ago the models IMO were bringing Sandy up the coast at a faster rate. Some of the big storm solutions were showing the initial shortwave going negative and phasing with Sandy. The GGEM especially was one of the models showing this. The big question now, since it looks like Sandy will take longer to come up the coast, is if a back side shortwave in the trough can phase with Sandy quick enough to capture the low. This idea of the 2nd wave phasing with Sandy adds to the chances of frozen precip in the higher elevations of the interior since more cold air will be available from the delay in phasing. IMHO, the slower sandy comes out of the gulp the better shot of phasing and a hit on the coast. This would give the trof a head start. Though, in contrast it also allows the ocean low to escape which is also holding sandy at bay. Jusr\t shows how convoluted the pattern is. I get a kick out of dt on fb proclaiming how the nogaps is kicking the gfs's butt on this. Granted the gfs may be wrong but how can you decipher that with 6 days to go and in a pattern with so many pieces around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 gfs still taking small strides towards the euro and ggem with a deeper trof and trying to phase in the s/w rounding the base. This run continues to get closer with the phase with a little more involvement of the s/w. Another major difference is the location of sandy once the s/w starts to interact with it. The gfs is well east of the euro and ggem foreasted spots. So even when the gfs tries to phase it in, granted its later in the game the storm is just way to far ots. Curious if the ensemble mean will be any closer\more members phased....dammit, wish my lunch break came at euro time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Curious if the ensemble mean will be any closer\more members phased....dammit, wish my lunch break came at euro time lolz yea i know. I just access it through my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Mount Holly's briefing package for TS Sandy and potential nor'easter: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, GGEM is a non phased, GFS esqe type solution Well, GGEM is a non phased, GFS esqe type solution http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Mount Holly's briefing package for TS Sandy and potential nor'easter: http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf Thanks for posting that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Thanks for posting that here. No problem, I'm still reading through it so I don't have any additional comments yet...I like how Mount Holly puts these together though. Nice to see what y'alls thoughts are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Well, GGEM is a non phased, GFS esqe type solution http://www.weatherof...ast/236_100.gif Yes it most certainly is. NAM is west. Several more runs of model wars to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 From John (earth light) in NYC forum: Looks fairly similar to 00z through 96 with less ridging to the north of the TC over the W Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Ps,, GEFS mean is pretty. 988 over NYC . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 JB's tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Hello? Weather porn anyone:168hr euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 its pretty much the same as 0z, takes sandy into long island then into southeast ny. We get about 4-7 inches of rain most from phl to coast. I can't go off the euro maos i have but their is a good amount of precip for us with 850 temps below 0 and temps in the 30s from del river east. Area with 500 ft or higher in elev and west should see some snow on this per that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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