tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Saw a post that they found 939.1mb... true? 937.5 extropolated 145800 3738N 07133W 6966 02612 9386 +160 +104 184046 051 033 002 00 145830 3738N 07135W 6966 02607 9382 +156 +119 189036 043 027 002 03 145900 3738N 07137W 6973 02595 9375 +161 +114 191032 035 019 004 00 145930 3738N 07139W 6967 02599 9381 +150 +116 200025 029 020 003 00 150000 3739N 07142W 6970 02595 9377 +153 +113 194018 023 014 003 00 150030 3739N 07144W 6966 02597 9385 +142 +114 177013 015 013 002 03 150100 3739N 07146W 6970 02593 9392 +136 +115 169011 012 016 004 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just saw a 937.5 Extrap in the main thread.......... Saw a post that they found 939.1mb... true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 just an amazing link http://www.ssec.wisc.../loop_srso.html Still hot towers going up in this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Ct blizz saying this thing will be purely warm core @land fall. I can see why. Absolutely amazing what this storm is doing, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 NAM at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 just to let people know the extropolated pressures have been running about3 or mbs to low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Ct blizz saying this thing will be purely warm core @land fall. I can see why. Absolutely amazing what this storm is doing, Pressure up to 946 mb at 1502Z recon. If it remains a totally secluded warm core system, in a backhanded sense passing over the now increasingly cooler water would weaken it. I still wouldn't bet the roof on my house there won't be a baroclinic kick before this makes landfall. BTW nothing is going to help the shore unless this can get make landfall faster before the next high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have never seen this for our area! * THE USGS HAS ISSUED A LANDSLIDE ALERT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY TRIGGER LANDSLIDES ON COASTAL BLUFFS...MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES AND LOCAL LANDSLIDE PRONE AREAS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME LANDSLIDES MAY BE DAMAGING AND/OR POSE A THREAT TO LIFE SAFETY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I have never seen this for our area! * THE USGS HAS ISSUED A LANDSLIDE ALERT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY TRIGGER LANDSLIDES ON COASTAL BLUFFS...MODERATE TO STEEP SLOPES AND LOCAL LANDSLIDE PRONE AREAS OF NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SOME LANDSLIDES MAY BE DAMAGING AND/OR POSE A THREAT TO LIFE SAFETY AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE ROAD CLOSURES. I have to image the usual spot on 76 is a big concern. I know they are right in the middle of a project to fix that. However, it seems that have the face of the area in question is just dirt and nothing to hold it together....So we will see how it holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 940mb, 90mph winds at the 2pm NHC update. Booking NW at 28 mph now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Let's leave the warning discussion for post storm reflection. Pretty sure everyone knows sandy is an extremely dangerous situation and the people that don't wouldn't be reached by a hurricane warning anyway. I was just explaining what they were doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I was just explaining what they were doing. Not mad at you Cary, just wanted to move past that discussion right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think it'll make landfall by 6pm. Amazing job by the NWS and local mets. They essentially gave us a heads-up a full week in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think it'll make landfall by 6pm. Amazing job by the NWS and local mets. They essentially gave us a heads-up a full week in advance. And yet there are people still being rescued from their houses and some still refusing to leave.......Don't even want to imagine a storm happening like this in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcostell Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I'm in Haddon Heights (Camden County) and am wondering if this goes "downhill" soon...Is the speedup of the storm going to change our nearterm forecast? Has the "inversion" limited wind so far- as it has been weaker than previously advertised...not a bad thing- but so far- not too "impressive". I think this will this change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Just saw the latest High Wind Warning update for the South Jersey. 000 WWUS71 KPHI 291853 NPWPHI URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 253 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... .SANDY CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO HIT THE NEW JERSEY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 65 AND 85 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NJZ013-014-016>027-300500- /O.CON.KPHI.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-121030T1300Z/ WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY- ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN- SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...PENNSVILLE... GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY... JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE... OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND... WHARTON STATE FOREST 253 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT TUESDAY... *WINDS...EAST 40 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH. * THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION! * TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING COULD STILL UPROOT A FEW TREES BUT BY THEN THE PRIMARY DAMAGE WILL HAVE OCCURRED. * IMPACTS...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...DOWNED TREES AND WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND...INCREASINGLY RAIN SOFTENED GROUND...AND MANY TREES STILL WITH LEAVES...WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES TODAY AND TONIGHT. MANY TREES COULD BE COMPLETELY UPROOTED. POWER OUTAGES MAY BE OF LONG DURATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 246 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 DEZ002>004-292045- DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT DE- 246 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WILL AFFECT PORTIONS KENT AND SUSSEX COUNTIES... AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 24 MILES SOUTH OF OCEAN CITY TO 50 MILES EAST OF GEORGETOWN. THE BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WERE MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER SUSSEX COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENT COUNTY BETWEEN 330 PM AND 430 PM...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE COAST OF SUSSEX COUNTY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINS EARLIER. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY WEAKEN TREE ROOT SYSTEMS... RESULTING IN DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think it'll make landfall by 6pm. Amazing job by the NWS and local mets. They essentially gave us a heads-up a full week in advance. Thank-you and thank-you the unwavering Ecmwf. In my opinion only Cape May by 6 pm. That great satellite link, wow. Also its not everyday Somerville has the highest wind gust (55 mph) on the hourly round-up, just shows how huge this wind field is. Watch out for the south winds on the back side too, the GFS is more adiabatic through 850mb than it is now. Good luck and be safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It will be interesting to see how the wind mixing down from aloft behaves with this thing from here on out especially the farther inland one goes. Some of the sustained wind forecasts especially farther inland I think are to high. 6ABC has changed their peak wind gust forecast graphic at least three times today already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 It will be interesting to see how the wind mixing down from aloft behaves with this thing from here on out especially the farther inland one goes. Some of the sustained wind forecasts especially farther inland I think are to high. 6ABC has changed their peak wind gust forecast graphic at least three times today already. I am curious as well, then again I'm also impressed TTN already gusted past 50. As Tony mentioned the soundings look a bit dangerous on the back side of this thing, it could be when we get 60+ gusts well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I am curious as well, then again I'm also impressed TTN already gusted past 50. As Tony mentioned the soundings look a bit dangerous on the back side of this thing, it could be when we get 60+ gusts well inland. I agree regarding the gust aspect, but I am really wondering about the rather high sustained wind forecasts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Gravity waves in the ne side? The ripples me of ocean acres * Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I agree regarding the gust aspect, but I am really wondering about the rather high sustained wind forecasts out there. Yeah, it bewilders me how even experienced mets fail to realize how powerful friction is away from the coast. It always makes it less windy than you would think. You can't take a coastal forecast and just transfer it inland. Doesn't work like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 If the heavy rain tapers off as it looks on radar it might in the next few hours, will it lessen the translation of the wind to the surface?f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I agree regarding the gust aspect, but I am really wondering about the rather high sustained wind forecasts out there. Agree, likely my last post.... Be careful and safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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