jerseystorm Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Now you can watch Sandy DO-AC http://www.ustream.tv/channel/hurricane-sandy-ac Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 From HM (not marg) just a couple mins ago in SNE thread.. "The 00z GFS is alarming for my area. I'm riding this out near Trenton. The combination of sting jet prospects of upper level evaporation and steepening lower lapse rates will also make the right quadrant particularly interesting post-landfall despite the enlarging / non-tropical-like wind field. " Looks like ray's toy could get a workout! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The inverted trof dosen't seem to appear on this GFS run. Things getting more interesting in Northern Virginia as well...regionwide grid disruption for millions doesn't seem like an exaggeration at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Watching that old inner core of Sandy gain a bit more convection...wondering if as it makes landfall its going to have its own precip/wind field expand within the larger circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 my lord one continous arm of brightband echoes stretching from cape hatteras to 200 miles south of cape cod...what an image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 From JB this AM - he is not happy with the lack of official Hurricane Warnings up....."The landfall is very close to Atlantic City this evening. At the last recon, the pressure at 950 mb was 10 mb LOWER than the initialization . What the model is telling us and the cloud shot also with deeper convection wrapping around the center is that the post transition argumentd, is nonsense. This is deepening and coming in as a warm core. I am speaking the truth, nothing more, nothing less. You mean to tell me that doesnt look like a hurricane? ECMWF at 945 mb which is 27.87 is not goot enough. How the heck and a sub 960 mb lower, yet alone what this is, not be warm core after coming off tropical waters. Though ragged the dry air is now shut off the model idea of deepening till landfall on the northwest track since warm water is in the way is the correct one. It has hit the 950 I said it would and stands a good chance of reaching 940 mb on the way in" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think a trend a bit south with recent models, higher winds/less rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think a trend a bit south with recent models, higher winds/less rain? Reasonable to assume. Back to bed for me. Work @3p and I prob won't be getting any sleep there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I think a trend a bit south with recent models, higher winds/less rain? yep, higher winds, less rains in the philly area. south del and jerz still gonna get hit with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The slight shift south could have a big impact at the shore. Unfortuneately not good for S Jersey shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Atlantic City surge forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 But all relative Tom....a heck of a lot of rain for sure - you can see the bands beginning to swing NW - I expect to lose power here by mid-afternoon. I always do....but we have an automatic generator that should kick in and save the day Stay safe! Paul yep, higher winds, less rains in the philly area. south del and jerz still gonna get hit with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 yep, higher winds, less rains in the philly area. south del and jerz still gonna get hit with the rain. not looking forward to this change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Wxsim for NW Chester County Has heaviest rain this PM with 5.60" falling by midnight with another 1.28" tomorrow and 0.13" on Wed - Storm total forecast 7.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Sure looks better on satellite now than at all in the past 24 hours. Wouldnt be surprised at all to have seen deepening with next recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 946 mb at 5AM. The sub-950 model surface pressures we were skeptical about are going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Surge model - 5+ from Cape May N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Atlantic City surge forecast. Can you send a link for that model? I'm using the output from NYHOPS and it's showing a bit less presently (NOAA > NYHOPS). http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/SSWS/d/index.shtml?station=N017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can you send a link for that model? I'm using the output from NYHOPS and it's showing a bit less presently (NOAA > NYHOPS). http://hudson.dl.ste...ml?station=N017 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/et_surge/et_surge_info.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Looks like Atlantic City tide topped out at 8.25 feet - below the 8.5-9 ft forecast of Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Thanks, the NOAA models seem to be closer to actual than NYHOPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Adam - Use this site for stations. Current AC forecast http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 OMG I have never seen this!! I have property on the river.....its at 12-13ft....the high point on the bay near belmar. All access will be cut off. The current tide cycle is about as bad as I have ever seen. Might go take a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Can you send a link for that model? I'm using the output from NYHOPS and it's showing a bit less presently (NOAA > NYHOPS). http://hudson.dl.ste...ml?station=N017 Capt Adam, We have found the mdl (NOAA) model more accurate than NYHOPS for Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Our lights just flickered, so this might be it for me for a while, the 12hr GFS forecast vs the 500mb obs had more ridging northeast of us than forecast. Sandy still looks right of track (or 71W), but I would assume all things being equal, that the turn to the left will come harder. The HWRF pressure forecasts (if one goes back to previous runs) is verifying too low valid this morning. Sandy crossing Gulf Stream now, so last ounce of tropical energy coming. I can't say I am personally highly confident as to how strong the winds will get. The 06z GFS winds got even more frightening. Some super high res model posting that I saw elsewhere suggesting 60-70mph in our local area. Regardless of the wind damage here, the NJ tidal impact with this next high tide cycle is going to be record breaking. Good luck everyone and be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Good luck everyone and be safe. You too Tony, and thanks for what you do both in your career and the information you share with us on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I've been bearish all along Tony, but the latest guidance and trends makes me a lot more concerned for structural damage. I just don't know. Be safe everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I've been bearish all along Tony, but the latest guidance and trends makes me a lot more concerned for structural damage. I just don't know. Be safe everyone. Between the derecho and now this, its just not been southeastern NJ's year. Be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Our lights just flickered, so this might be it for me for a while, the 12hr GFS forecast vs the 500mb obs had more ridging northeast of us than forecast. Sandy still looks right of track (or 71W), but I would assume all things being equal, that the turn to the left will come harder. The HWRF pressure forecasts (if one goes back to previous runs) is verifying too low valid this morning. Sandy crossing Gulf Stream now, so last ounce of tropical energy coming. I can't say I am personally highly confident as to how strong the winds will get. The 06z GFS winds got even more frightening. Some super high res model posting that I saw elsewhere suggesting 60-70mph in our local area. Regardless of the wind damage here, the NJ tidal impact with this next high tide cycle is going to be record breaking. Good luck everyone and be safe. yea i saw that 6z gfs and it was scary. 117mph winds at 850, with 76-80 at 925. With the forecast bringing this a little further south we will be on the worse side wind wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 yea i saw that 6z gfs and it was scary. 117mph winds at 850, with 76-80 at 925. With the forecast bringing this a little further south we will be on the worse side wind wise. The 12Z NAM is very close to the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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