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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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reports of flooding already in nyc thread..

Moderators Please, Please forgive Me, posting here...

I need Help badly...

*******

Folks! I need some help FAST!

Even though I reside on Coastal NC, I've got a dear friend Whim resides in Riverhead, NY

Around Ellen street in Riverhead.... She's reporting mainstreet is flooding already...

Her husband is gone on business out of town... She's by herself and getting scared...

I *think* She's at least 35' above the bay...

I need to reasure Her about flooding potental...

As I Opined She resides at/around 40 block of Ellen Street, Riverhead Ny....

Tide(s) Surge & Flooding, has She anything to worry about?????..

Or PLEASE post a link for estimated surges & tide info expected? in THAT area?

There are Evac orders, (she said, in a PM) out for "Low-Lying" area(s) around there...

HELP!

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I hate to keep coming back to the inversion issue re: high wind potential....do the mets here see this as mitigating the high wind threat or would the inversion be so strong as to completely prevent high winds til the center of sandy passes to our west? I see it coming up a bit in the NYC subforum as well...just shaking my head at the idea of massive pressure changes over a short period of time without some correspondingly high winds.

Until Sandy gets on the other side of the Gulf Stream and we see what goes on with the pressure and wind field, I think a better assessment can then be made. I know our office is not using the standard reduction of wind fields with extratropical lows to arrive at the wind gusts, they would be lower (well at least looking at the GFS). Regardless Sandy is pushing the right side envelope with its current track and the 18z soundings continued the trend at 12z, the central trof a hair weaker than fcst, the maritime ridge a hair stronger than fcst.

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UA analysis vs verification of 12hr GFS. Trof verifying slightly baggier approaching from the west. Ridging orientation slightly more n-s than ne-sw; I think both of these have let Sandy sneak out a bit more to the right; looks like the general motion has to average due north between now and 6z to not come in east of the NHC position. Regardless it looks like any exit stage right motion is going to come to an end pretty soon.

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UA analysis vs verification of 12hr GFS. Trof verifying slightly baggier approaching from the west. Ridging orientation slightly more n-s than ne-sw; I think both of these have let Sandy sneak out a bit more to the right; looks like the general motion has to average due north between now and 6z to not come in east of the NHC position. Regardless it looks like any exit stage right motion is going to come to an end pretty soon.

well if its sneaking out a little more left than the nhc track might be toms river to belmar strike. Assuming it continues on that staying east of track. That would prob put the track above phl, putting them on the rainier side.

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well if its sneaking out a little more left than the nhc track might be toms river to belmar strike. Assuming it continues on that staying east of track. That would prob put the track above phl, putting them on the rainier side.

Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. sad.png

I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there.

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Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. sad.png

I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there.

im banking on that inversion to save the day for us tony.

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Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. sad.png

I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there.

Thanks Tony. Thanks for keeping us aware of all the dangers approaching.....My little beach place about to take that nasty rain band coming into Delaware Atlantic Coast. At least it is not oceanfront.

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