tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z euro brings this into toms river then over rays weather station then abe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Some of the higher terrain of the Poconos are going to be pretty close in altitude to those winds. shhhh...don't tell sandy. maybe no power here for a month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 NHC update at 2:00PM keeps the pressure at 951mb - no change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 reports of flooding already in nyc thread.. Moderators Please, Please forgive Me, posting here... I need Help badly... ******* Folks! I need some help FAST! Even though I reside on Coastal NC, I've got a dear friend Whim resides in Riverhead, NY Around Ellen street in Riverhead.... She's reporting mainstreet is flooding already... Her husband is gone on business out of town... She's by herself and getting scared... I *think* She's at least 35' above the bay... I need to reasure Her about flooding potental... As I Opined She resides at/around 40 block of Ellen Street, Riverhead Ny.... Tide(s) Surge & Flooding, has She anything to worry about?????.. Or PLEASE post a link for estimated surges & tide info expected? in THAT area? There are Evac orders, (she said, in a PM) out for "Low-Lying" area(s) around there... HELP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 12z euro brings this into toms river then over rays weather station then abe What is the depth on the 12Z Euro at LF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is the depth on the 12Z Euro at LF? The lowest I see is 948. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Winds aren't super impressive on the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 reports of flooding already in nyc thread.. flooding and power outages in maryland as well. It's going to be a long 48 hours for some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 What is the depth on the 12Z Euro at LF? mb? looks like sub 952 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I hate to keep coming back to the inversion issue re: high wind potential....do the mets here see this as mitigating the high wind threat or would the inversion be so strong as to completely prevent high winds til the center of sandy passes to our west? I see it coming up a bit in the NYC subforum as well...just shaking my head at the idea of massive pressure changes over a short period of time without some correspondingly high winds. Until Sandy gets on the other side of the Gulf Stream and we see what goes on with the pressure and wind field, I think a better assessment can then be made. I know our office is not using the standard reduction of wind fields with extratropical lows to arrive at the wind gusts, they would be lower (well at least looking at the GFS). Regardless Sandy is pushing the right side envelope with its current track and the 18z soundings continued the trend at 12z, the central trof a hair weaker than fcst, the maritime ridge a hair stronger than fcst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The lowest I see is 948. Thanks, was just curious. Looks like the 00Z had 947 so everything is pretty well focused on upper 940s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 flooding and power outages in maryland as well. It's going to be a long 48 hours for some of us. I will dance in the streets if it's only 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Heaviest rain is shifting south per 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Check out the pressure gradient for Sandy today, compared to the Boxing Day Storm... not much difference. Which is a big part of why the incredibly low pressure won't bring as high winds as any normal hurricane would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It appears the HPC has shifted rain fall totals slightly north: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 They mentioned the Sting Jet in the SNE forum. It seems to be exactly what the NAM is showing for the area around 6-9z Tuesday. The little bit of a core this storm has may allow it to spin the front around fast. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sting_jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here is the 5pm update #26 from NHC... Both are real from their website..... But something seems fishy Lucy!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here is the 5pm update #26 from NHC... Both are real from their website..... But something seems fishy Lucy!!!! they orig had it as tropical in south jerz, then they changed it to extra tropical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 they orig had it as tropical in south jerz, then they changed it to extra tropical. But they snuck it in. That would make it 26A. They tried to do a slight of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Local NWS skirts the system.... Issues a Hurricane Local Statement disguised as a Special Weather Statement http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=SPS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 UA analysis vs verification of 12hr GFS. Trof verifying slightly baggier approaching from the west. Ridging orientation slightly more n-s than ne-sw; I think both of these have let Sandy sneak out a bit more to the right; looks like the general motion has to average due north between now and 6z to not come in east of the NHC position. Regardless it looks like any exit stage right motion is going to come to an end pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 UA analysis vs verification of 12hr GFS. Trof verifying slightly baggier approaching from the west. Ridging orientation slightly more n-s than ne-sw; I think both of these have let Sandy sneak out a bit more to the right; looks like the general motion has to average due north between now and 6z to not come in east of the NHC position. Regardless it looks like any exit stage right motion is going to come to an end pretty soon. well if its sneaking out a little more left than the nhc track might be toms river to belmar strike. Assuming it continues on that staying east of track. That would prob put the track above phl, putting them on the rainier side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 well if its sneaking out a little more left than the nhc track might be toms river to belmar strike. Assuming it continues on that staying east of track. That would prob put the track above phl, putting them on the rainier side. Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there. im banking on that inversion to save the day for us tony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Roads closed in Delaware after 5AM Monday http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/story?section=news/local&id=8863176 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 Only saving grace for PHL if we continue the zero sum gain with those two features as you posted, would be less of a tidal surge up the Delaware. Of course that would make it worse up toward NYC. At least two more high tide cycles to go and moderate tidal flooding has already started. I don't know how long the power is going to last, so just in case, everybody seriously be careful out there. Thanks Tony. Thanks for keeping us aware of all the dangers approaching.....My little beach place about to take that nasty rain band coming into Delaware Atlantic Coast. At least it is not oceanfront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 I can't believe the impacts in NJ already and this thing still isn't close to landfall. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 00Z GFS hits us bad. Looks like acy to baltimore. Should be amazing tomorrow afternoon and night. Landfall around 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 The inverted trof dosen't seem to appear on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 29, 2012 Share Posted October 29, 2012 But they snuck it in. That would make it 26A. They tried to do a slight of hand. I'm sure they are regretting their decision already. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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