Parsley Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 thats why i hate when people dismiss everything before it happens. We have lived through the march 2001 storm, the eagles comeback against the giants, winter of 09-10 we should learn to let things play out and not dismiss it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 thats why i hate when people dismiss everything before it happens. We have lived through the march 2001 storm, the eagles comeback against the giants, winter of 09-10 we should learn to let things play out and not dismiss it. Be nice Tom. Who really believed it was gonna happen when it first showed up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 For those who have not seen the March 1962 LBI aftermath video.....here you go. BTW looking at LBI WEB cams....water in some streets already. http://www.youtube.c...ed/KXaP_ovTiPU" Great footage, never saw this film before! A true testament to just how bad that storm was. How will Sandy compare? This is the question du jour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 thats why i hate when people dismiss everything before it happens. We have lived through the march 2001 storm, the eagles comeback against the giants, winter of 09-10 we should learn to let things play out and not dismiss it. Seriously though, Tom, who would have thought we'd be staring down what is about to transpire when the models first started hinting at the possibility of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Euro picked it up at almost maximum range of ten days. Yeah I think the 12Z Sat euro had it hitting SNE with explosive deepening. The "locked-on-edness" reminded me of Feb 5, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I will say that, overall, the EC has performed extremely well. I am impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Agreed Ray. The euro original thoughts of a more Southern LF looks like a good possibility now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Agreed Ray. The euro original thoughts of a more Southern LF looks like a good possibility now. I was referring more to it having figured this thing out a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 if it takes that track we wouldnt get as bad of rain, but the wind would be worse...so pick your poison...del and nj would hate that track. all depends when that curve starts to take place...the sooner the further south. It won't be a tropical system at landfall, so I don't view them as being as accurate. I tried a best comparison of the GFS 24hr fcst and the approaching ridge and the approaching trof, it looks like a zero sum gain, the ridging a bit faster or stronger, the approaching trof a bit slower or weaker. Looks like more eastward jogs in the visible, so we will see. Either way, like you said, pick your poison. The farther north NJ landfall would decrease the tidal flooding up the Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Be nice Tom. Who really believed it was gonna happen when it first showed up? By all means im not singling out phlwx or anyone, heck i was one of them i will admit that. Im just merely saying from this, we should never say "ooo that will never happen". Like i said, who would of thought what happened with the march 2001 system, or in the winter of 09-10 where some places had like 4 ft of snow in a week. We should learn that you cant just say that will never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i was one of them i will admit that. Im just merely saying from this, we should never say "ooo that will never happen". Like i said, who would of thought what happened with the march 2001 system, or in the winter of 09-10 where some places had like 4 ft of snow in a week. We should learn that you cant just that will never happen. Then I guess there IS hope of the Eagles winning a Super Bowl someday. 12Z NAM heading for southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 It won't be a tropical system at landfall, so I don't view them as being as accurate. I tried a best comparison of the GFS 24hr fcst and the approaching ridge and the approaching trof, it looks like a zero sum gain, the ridging a bit faster or stronger, the approaching trof a bit slower or weaker. Looks like more eastward jogs in the visible, so we will see. Either way, like you said, pick your poison. The farther north NJ landfall would decrease the tidal flooding up the Delaware. Heck you cant even go off the nam, it doesnt even have the storm at 951mb anywhere in its life. The only ones matching up with intensity are the hurricane models. I think the gfdl or hwrf had like sub 930 or 930mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 i was one of them i will admit that. Im just merely saying from this, we should never say "ooo that will never happen". Like i said, who would of thought what happened with the march 2001 system, or in the winter of 09-10 where some places had like 4 ft of snow in a week. We should learn that you cant just that will never happen. Yeah never is a real bad word in the meteorological community. I must admit, I thought this was going to be more of a direct New England hit the way the Euro was overdeepening approaching trofs so far this fall. There was one GFS run that beat the Euro to NJ because Nooch's friend who wants to be a met texted him last weekend I think and said get a load of this. Of course then the GFS went the escape hatch route. Props to the Euro and some GFS ensembles that backed the Euro this week, helped us to not waver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Great footage, never saw this film before! A true testament to just how bad that storm was. How will Sandy compare? This is the question du jour. The Atlantic City storm tide for Sandy is foreceast to be a foot higher than 1962, but the high surge will be 2 tide cycles vice 3 in 1962 (there were a lot more tide cycles slightly lower in 1962) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Heck you cant even go off the nam, it doesnt even have the storm at 951mb anywhere in its life. The only ones matching up with intensity are the hurricane models. I think the gfdl or hwrf had like sub 930 or 930mb I was posting more about the track than pressure. I don't think I'd ever see the day of a 929 mb low with a max wind of 69 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I was posting more about the track than pressure. I don't think I'd ever see the day of a 929 mb low with a max wind of 69 knots. O ok... on that chart you posted how do you read it? at one spectrum with a 950 pressure u get a 65kt storm while going across you can get 100kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the 6z hwrf is the only model with comparable pressures. It starts it at 945, here is the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 927 slamming ACY? Unreal if true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I was posting more about the track than pressure. I don't think I'd ever see the day of a 929 mb low with a max wind of 69 knots. Tony, im sure everyone else is thinking the same, but that warm front or whatever it is assoc with sandy's west side. Is the nam correct in showing a reduction in winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I just looked up the ten strongest hurricanes to strike the U.S. by minimum pressure only. If Sandy hit with that forecast pressure of 927 mb, it would about number six on the list. Not sure if the same standard applies here since it will not be a true hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tony, im sure everyone else is thinking the same, but that warm front or whatever it is assoc with sandy's west side. Is the nam correct in showing a reduction in winds? The NAM went back slightly north so it's back! I think it could be inversion related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Woodbury NJ NW Gloucester county 11am: No rain but definitely experiencing what I would estimate are first gusts over 30mph right now... Wrong thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The NAM went back slightly north so it's back! I think it could be inversion related. yea its something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HPC's precip forecast issued this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I went down to LBI to secure my station there yesterday. Obs can be found via the link in my sig (as long as the power stays on!). The house is on the bayside of LBI, in Holgate - a town which was more or less leveled during the 1962 epic (and I believe during the 1944 storm as well). The house itself was built in 1963, and is up on pilings - so if the surge overtops the dunes and reaches the bay, the house is at least fairly well-protected. I'm hoping landfall will be to the north, so that it won't be as much of a concern. I have perfect exposure there to the entire NW quadrant (over the bay), with decent (but certainly not as good) exposure to the NE quadrant. It's pretty much perfectly exposed to due North, so if we see the advertised period of vicious winds from that direction later tomorrow, I could be in position to measure something fierce. During the 6/30/12 derecho, my station measured sustained winds (2-min) up to 47 mph and a peak gust of 58 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You ought to send your data to CWOP too, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 You ought to send your data to CWOP too, dude. You're totally right. My home station's been on CWOP since 2006. The problem with the LBI station, though, is that my internet connection (3G) is completey unreliable, and I've gone weeks without having it online. You'll see all the ugly gaps in my WU history. It's actually the device I have that's the problem, not the 3G service itself. But I do need to replace that with something I can afford (college student, so no full-on Comcast wifi!) that will be more reliable. Until then, though, my uploads to CWOP would probably be far too unreliable for them to have any use for. This is actually my page on FindU, but it's not officially registered yet w/CWOP because I'm waiting to improve the internet reliability: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=ew0190&last=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Our CWA has a Storm Warning for the coast and the others (north and south) opted for a hurricane force wind warning. What's the difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 O ok... on that chart you posted how do you read it? at one spectrum with a 950 pressure u get a 65kt storm while going across you can get 100kts... That chart is just showing the distribution of winds associated with those pressures and tropical systems. Its not a forecast chart. Basically we are almost in unseen territory to have a pressure that low and winds that low. Right the most likely outcome are much stronger winds, but not necessarily so. I honestly don't know what to make of the nam's trof. Even if correct, it could still be +/- 50 miles in its placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Our CWA has a Storm Warning for the coast and the others (north and south) opted for a hurricane force wind warning. What's the difference? We have one too, not sure why the map has not updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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