SmokeEater Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 The surge hasn't gotten you yet?! Maybe the super cold air being sucked down from the stratosphere into the eye will get you.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Anyone remember some of the multiple runs of supposedly reliable models that showed Irene hooking as a 939mb into our area? Yeah, this is pure fantasy right now...even if Euro shows something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 From the NHC discussion THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 hrs. What is the rapid intensification index? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 944 making LF at my house, I should evac now, lol. wait, i have a suspicion you'd stay and ride it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Without a doubt the most highly anticipated run of the Euro in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Ps, the nogaps is wrapped up. A bit east of the gem tough. But when you see a notoriously progressive model such as the nogaps being ampd up, you take notice . Not saying its correct of reliable. B it's going against its own bias. Just food for though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Canadian has a 944 MB bomb over Ocean City, MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Thank goodness I sold my house on the Little Lehigh in Lehigh County last week. If the GGEM and Euro were to verify, I think flooding would ensue given the lack of growing season sucking up the water. What's funny is that people in Jersey would be thinking wind/coastal flooding, while in E PA, it would be a rain and wind threat, while in W PA it would be massive snows. Jim Cantore's head would explode. We'd get a chance to see which he prefers, wind/rain/surge or snowmageddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dankil13 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm hoping for a GFS win here... not only would this be catastrophic event for the area, but I am taking the little ones to Disney and I have a 7AM flight on Tues out of PHL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 What is the rapid intensification index? Two links: Summary: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2011/rapid.html Paper on which the index is based: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/kaplan_et_al_2010.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Two links: Summary: http://www.aoml.noaa...2011/rapid.html Paper on which the index is based: http://rammb.cira.co..._et_al_2010.pdf Thanks Don! some of it is obviously above my head, But the newer index has included a dry air factor and TPW (which I'm not sure of). Cool stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 That map is scary. Really not looking for something like this to verify. JB tweeting claims to this storm since others are jumping on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I dub this storm SandyVagHyperHybridicane. Lets see THAT graphic on TWC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol@ 12z euro..late capture..sub 930 storm slamming SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Although east of original track on the Euro, still an extraordinary storm. However the trend is to the east. GFS wins today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 This is still impressive.., 76kts @850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Glenn Schwartz @HurricaneNBC10 Challenging forecast for Wed-Fri here. VERY interesting tropical devel./move to Bahamas Thu. More on that coming up in tweets/blogs/4pm news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm thinking that a euro like track and somewhere around a 970 storm would be a bullish call this point and time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm thinking that a euro like track and somewhere around a 970 storm would be a bullish call this point and time Why not go all in for 935 instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Why not go all in for 935 instead? It's my first, first call..patience! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Looking forward to Glenn's take...in fact between Glenn's knowledge of Noreasters and Sheena's specializing in tropical weather thats one hell of a good broadcasting combo we have to follow with this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 this has that biblical blizzard that was suppose to hit the ohio valley 2-3 years ago then moved to an apps hit then moved to an east coast storm then final outcome was no one got hit. All the hype on that storm was epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Just saw Glenns take on the system. Very good, getting the word out for the possibility of a major storm, but no hype or fear mongering... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Although east of original track on the Euro, still an extraordinary storm. However the trend is to the east. GFS wins today. If you're looking at only the GFS/EC then yes. However most of the other models are showing a more westward solution with vast disagreement in the 12z GFS ensemble members as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you're looking at only the GFS/EC then yes. However most of the other models are showing a more westward solution with vast disagreement in the 12z GFS ensemble members as well. The Canadian's never met a phased solution it didn't like (to name one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 7 days out, the Euro ens is your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 7 days out, the Euro ens is your friend What's the word on them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 I could buy a Noel intensity that stalls or slows offshore a couple of hundred miles offshore a la Ida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 If you're looking at only the GFS/EC then yes. However most of the other models are showing a more westward solution with vast disagreement in the 12z GFS ensemble members as well. Thanks for the input however not looking forward to getting gas for the generator again this October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Although east of original track on the Euro, still an extraordinary storm. However the trend is to the east. GFS wins today. My sister-in-law bought a house right on the intracoastal waterway near Cape May. Elevation is about 6' above MSL. Does anyone know if that area is prone to tidal flooding in these types of events? I am guessing the answer is yes. FWIW it was built in the summer of 1992. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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