Allsnow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow, pressure down to 951 now. Super storm was only 963....crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 That's quite impressive..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Eh, not really a bump... says in the text that the 75 mph winds will be localized to areas right on the coast. in the grided forecast they bumped it up. Yesterday i was only 55mph for gusts, now im at 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bombogenesis underway! the only thing as others have mentioned, the pressure may not correlate with wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the only thing as others have mentioned, the pressure may not correlate with wind speed. I don't think it matters much from an historical standpoint. Pressure records most likely will be shattered all across the mid-atlantic and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the only thing as others have mentioned, the pressure may not correlate with wind speed. Maybe not top end ..but the Winfield is just gonna ginormous. And stronger overall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Maybe not top end ..but the Winfield is just gonna ginormous. And stronger overall Yes, one reason the winds won't be a strong as you might think... friend of mine more familiar with these stats says that the tropical storm force windfield is now larger than any other recorded TC in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yes, one reason the winds won't be a strong as you might think... friend of mine more familiar with these stats says that the tropical storm force windfield is now larger than any other recorded TC in the Atlantic. Yea, hearing the IKE ( I something kentic energy) is the highest ever recorded... Saw it in the NE forum or main thread. I'll dig it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Yea, hearing the IKE ( I something kentic energy) is the highest ever recorded... Saw it in the NE forum or main thread. I'll dig it up. Integrated Kinetic Energy. 222 tJ at 2 am I believe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 I don't think it matters much from an historical standpoint. Pressure records most likely will be shattered all across the mid-atlantic and northeast. If this is one record to be broken its historic in its own, the most unusual records to break. This will be memorable on all accounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Integrated Kinetic Energy. 222 tJ at 2 am I believe... Thank you. Crashing on the couch of my buddies house after a Halloween party. (Hungover ugh ) id like to fall asleep, but this has me too excited. Hard to imagine the IKE is higher than Katrina and Wilma, but it is* that's how large the Wind field is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stellarfun Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Mid-latitude cyclone "Friedhelm" (Hurricane Bawbag to the locals in Scotland) hit the British Isles in December 2011 with minimum central pressure of 957 mb and maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, so these storms can really wind up the windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 question: with landfall is tornado activity in play? I have not seen any discussion on this topic and began to assume since Sandy is losing tropical characteristics by then the answer might be either no or not as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the only thing as others have mentioned, the pressure may not correlate with wind speed. Here is a chart just showing that. This comes from Patrick Marsh of OU, it has his name on the chart, so hopefully he is ok with this. What Brian said too, what is lost on the pressure field will more than will be made up by the duration of what could be 18-24 hours of tropical storm level gusts around our area. (Stronger gusts toward the coast and north of center). Also as what Hurricane Josh has posted no matter what the pressure is, it makes a difference whether or not this storm is intensifying or weakening at/toward landfall. I wish everyone the best of luck. Be safe. Sadly most people have no point of reference (whether the Irenes and Glorias desensitized them) as to judge how bad this is going to be. The derecho knocked out power for SE NJ for up to a week (I know a few places longer), what is this going to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 question: with landfall is tornado activity in play? I have not seen any discussion on this topic and began to assume since Sandy is losing tropical characteristics by then the answer might be either no or not as much. It was touched on somewhat here and in other threads. If I remember, most thought the threat will be low, but that some spin-ups could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Here is a chart just showing that. This comes from Patrick Marsh of OU, it has his name on the chart, so hopefully he is ok with this. What Brian said too, what is lost on the pressure field will more than will be made up by the duration of what could be 18-24 hours of tropical storm level gusts around our area. (Stronger gusts toward the coast and north of center). Also as what Hurricane Josh has posted no matter what the pressure is, it makes a difference whether or not this storm is intensifying or weakening at/toward landfall. I wish everyone the best of luck. Be safe. Sadly most people have no point of reference (whether the Irenes and Glorias desensitized them) as to judge how bad this is going to be. The derecho knocked out power for SE NJ for up to a week (I know a few places longer), what is this going to do? I was in Baltimore area the time of the Derecho - devastating - some people had no power for up to two weeks (BGE has issues to begin with). Anyway - if this comes close to that - and thinking it will because of strong sustained wind issue - I am feeling rather sick to my stomach right now. Nothing but wait and listen. Trying to tell my family that this may be something they will never experience in their lifetime. As prepared as I will ever be with family -- it's out of our hands now. Hoping the forcast doesn't verify... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Mid-latitude cyclone "Friedhelm" (Hurricane Bawbag to the locals in Scotland) hit the British Isles in December 2011 with minimum central pressure of 957 mb and maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, so these storms can really wind up the windfield. Perfect example of the isallobaric contribution to the wind field from a bombing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Great post Tony. I have been trying to use both Irene and derecho as recent examples. Great chart too! Be safe and keep your comments coming! (and dream of hitting a drive with the wind at your back ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Only good thing is that the HPC has heaviest rainfall south of the headwaters of the Delaware River. So may be river flooding won't be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 "12z tropical models look like far srn NJ" per Coastalwx in NE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 For those who have not seen the March 1962 LBI aftermath video.....here you go. BTW looking at LBI WEB cams....water in some streets already. http://www.youtube.c...ed/KXaP_ovTiPU" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 "12z tropical models look like far srn NJ" per Coastalwx in NE thread if it takes that track we wouldnt get as bad of rain, but the wind would be worse...so pick your poison...del and nj would hate that track. all depends when that curve starts to take place...the sooner the further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ...and pretty unlikely to verify. Beautiful to model watch though. Edit: lowest brings it sub 972 per SV so that sub 970 is pretty close. Bump ;-) just for laughs. No one reasonable in weather thought this would verify from that far out. Amazing how te models sniffed this out 7-8days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 in the vdm drop by the hurricane hunters, sandy's winds went up in the upper levels. 75kt wind in se quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 if it takes that track we wouldnt get as bad of rain, but the wind would be worse...so pick your poison...del and nj would hate that track. all depends when that curve starts to take place...the sooner the further south. Yeah more winds, more NE wind flow into more of NJ. That'd be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 if it takes that track we wouldnt get as bad of rain, but the wind would be worse...so pick your poison...del and nj would hate that track. all depends when that curve starts to take place...the sooner the further south. not to mention the tidal flooding up the Del bay / river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bump ;-) just for laughs. No one reasonable in weather thought this would verify from that far out. Amazing how te models sniffed this out 7-8days in advance. thats why i hate when people dismiss everything before it happens. We have lived through the march 2001 storm, the eagles comeback against the giants, winter of 09-10 we should learn to let things play out and not dismiss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 http://www.ustream.tv/channel/dssbss WEBSTREAM IS UP FOR BERKS COUNTY UNTIL THE POWER GOES OUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bump ;-) just for laughs. No one reasonable in weather thought this would verify from that far out. Amazing how te models sniffed this out 7-8days in advance. Euro picked it up at almost maximum range of ten days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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