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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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The inverted trough of safety is even a bigger factor for PHL on the NAM.

that inverted troff may provide safety from wind, but maybe not in another aspect. Inverted trofs are areas where winds collide from different directions, so it creates a baroclinic feature. Now if you look at 0z nam at hr 42, 45,48, and 51, which i posted below. Look at where the heaviest rain band sets up. It sets up right where that inverted trof signature is. That inv trof could lead to a very heavy rain band that breaks out where over that baroclinic feature is.

f42.gif

f45.gif

f48.gif

f51.gif

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the gfs has that same inv trof like signature but its winds are a lot higher. We get clobbered this run with rain for phl and immediate burbs 6-7 inches. 925mb winds are 60-70 kts...higher down by dc 65-75 and 80-100kts from li to cc

Sub 956 low right over PHL then west to KLNS. This thing means business.

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the gfs has that same inv trof like signature but its winds are a lot higher. We get clobbered this run with rain for phl and immediate burbs 6-7 inches. 925mb winds are 60-70 kts...higher down by dc 65-75 and 80-100kts from li to cc

Help me to understand. What caused that signature to show up on the NAM and GFS and why wasn't it shown on the models earlier? Tonight was the first I heard anyone mention it.

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Help me to understand. What caused that signature to show up on the NAM and GFS and why wasn't it shown on the models earlier? Tonight was the first I heard anyone mention it.

Im not sure if other hi res models have it or not. I looked at the 21z srefs and they really don't have it as pronounced as the nam does where the winds slack off like they do. Majority of the srefs kick in 30-40 mph sustained winds for the metro. Not really to sure what causes it. But just going off that map it looks like when you have converging of winds that rush inward towards the center.

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Well like I said, it looks more like a warm front, essentially. It'll probably function like one. Remember this thing will be going extratropical, that means it acquires fronts.

I will hold my tongue about DT and SD.

...and if it functions like a warm front, it should shunt the flow upwards, which would lift the action well off the surface.

Sorry...just connecting the dots.

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Well like I said, it looks more like a warm front, essentially. It'll probably function like one. Remember this thing will be going extratropical, that means it acquires fronts.

I will hold my tongue about DT and SD.

would you say it increases or decreases the chance of higher winds at the surface? (I'm hoping for lower winds at surface)

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After looking at nam more and input from earthlight in the new york thread....i get what ray and tony were talking about....although of course this feature I would think could shift either from different storm structure or track....quite curious the idea of an island of little wind damage in the midst of this

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HAZARDS:

ALL HAZARD STATEMENT UPDATES BETWEEN 455 AM AND 545 AM AFTER THE

NHC CONFERENCING.

HIGH WIND WATCH: BASED ON BL WINDS...AND NHC TCM WINDS...CONVERTING

TO HIGH WIND WARNING 12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...EMPHASIZING 15Z

MON-06Z TUE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF N-NW G 55-65 KTS BETWEEN

00Z-06Z NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EXCEEDINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF

THE TRACK OF SANDY. NAM HAS 8MB FALLS JUST AHD OF SANDY WITH 15 TO

18MB 3HR RISES JUST BEHIND IT MONDAY EVE! GFS HAS A 50 MB FALL

RISE COUPLET IN 6 HRS MOVING WWD ACROSS NNJ!

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