LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The inverted trough of safety is even a bigger factor for PHL on the NAM. Spare the loss of my antenna's from the winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The inverted trough of safety is even a bigger factor for PHL on the NAM. that inverted troff may provide safety from wind, but maybe not in another aspect. Inverted trofs are areas where winds collide from different directions, so it creates a baroclinic feature. Now if you look at 0z nam at hr 42, 45,48, and 51, which i posted below. Look at where the heaviest rain band sets up. It sets up right where that inverted trof signature is. That inv trof could lead to a very heavy rain band that breaks out where over that baroclinic feature is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the gfs has that same inv trof like signature but its winds are a lot higher. We get clobbered this run with rain for phl and immediate burbs 6-7 inches. 925mb winds are 60-70 kts...higher down by dc 65-75 and 80-100kts from li to cc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the gfs has that same inv trof like signature but its winds are a lot higher. We get clobbered this run with rain for phl and immediate burbs 6-7 inches. 925mb winds are 60-70 kts...higher down by dc 65-75 and 80-100kts from li to cc Sub 956 low right over PHL then west to KLNS. This thing means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 the gfs has that same inv trof like signature but its winds are a lot higher. We get clobbered this run with rain for phl and immediate burbs 6-7 inches. 925mb winds are 60-70 kts...higher down by dc 65-75 and 80-100kts from li to cc Help me to understand. What caused that signature to show up on the NAM and GFS and why wasn't it shown on the models earlier? Tonight was the first I heard anyone mention it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 The remnants of Sandy stick around for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Help me to understand. What caused that signature to show up on the NAM and GFS and why wasn't it shown on the models earlier? Tonight was the first I heard anyone mention it. Im not sure if other hi res models have it or not. I looked at the 21z srefs and they really don't have it as pronounced as the nam does where the winds slack off like they do. Majority of the srefs kick in 30-40 mph sustained winds for the metro. Not really to sure what causes it. But just going off that map it looks like when you have converging of winds that rush inward towards the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 whatever feature may be there, the 0z gfs is goddamn awful for such a large swath of the NE...at this point, I hope it's somewhat overdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 at 900mb off the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 just to add since everyone is saying about this inverted trof or whatever showing on the nam. From dt their is no inverted trof. steve d says inverted trof would enhance winds if their is one, so the mystery is still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well like I said, it looks more like a warm front, essentially. It'll probably function like one. Remember this thing will be going extratropical, that means it acquires fronts. I will hold my tongue about DT and SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well like I said, it looks more like a warm front, essentially. It'll probably function like one. Remember this thing will be going extratropical, that means it acquires fronts. I will hold my tongue about DT and SD. ...and if it functions like a warm front, it should shunt the flow upwards, which would lift the action well off the surface. Sorry...just connecting the dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Annnnd as if the West Coast felt neglected from flooding..... tsunami warnings are up from 7.7 quake. Apologies for off topic post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Well like I said, it looks more like a warm front, essentially. It'll probably function like one. Remember this thing will be going extratropical, that means it acquires fronts. I will hold my tongue about DT and SD. would you say it increases or decreases the chance of higher winds at the surface? (I'm hoping for lower winds at surface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 FYI -- LWX radar is down... so if you are looking south be forewarned 000NOUS61 KCTP 280335 FTMLWX Message Date: Oct 28 2012 03:35:42 03:35Z KLWX just encountered a hardware failure and is down. a tech is en route to evaluate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 After looking at nam more and input from earthlight in the new york thread....i get what ray and tony were talking about....although of course this feature I would think could shift either from different storm structure or track....quite curious the idea of an island of little wind damage in the midst of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 tidal departures already lookin freaky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 HAZARDS: ALL HAZARD STATEMENT UPDATES BETWEEN 455 AM AND 545 AM AFTER THE NHC CONFERENCING. HIGH WIND WATCH: BASED ON BL WINDS...AND NHC TCM WINDS...CONVERTING TO HIGH WIND WARNING 12Z MONDAY - 12Z TUESDAY...EMPHASIZING 15Z MON-06Z TUE. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF N-NW G 55-65 KTS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z NEAR THE EDGE OF THE EXCEEDINGLY TIGHT GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE TRACK OF SANDY. NAM HAS 8MB FALLS JUST AHD OF SANDY WITH 15 TO 18MB 3HR RISES JUST BEHIND IT MONDAY EVE! GFS HAS A 50 MB FALL RISE COUPLET IN 6 HRS MOVING WWD ACROSS NNJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 High wind watches now upgraded to warnings.... http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ017&warncounty=NJC015&firewxzone=NJZ017&local_place1=&product1=High+Wind+Warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 bump up in winds to now 60-75 for the area...6z gfs 925 mb winds are nasty 60-75 kts over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Tom, those are some sick 925mb winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 ...and if it functions like a warm front, it should shunt the flow upwards, which would lift the action well off the surface. Sorry...just connecting the dots. does that mean an increase in winds or as shown a decrease? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Looks like we're getting into some PRE well out ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 does that mean an increase in winds or as shown a decrease? Decrease....means less mixing down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Decrease....means less mixing down. that would be funny if that reduces the winds around here...the gfs surface winds are pretty nuts. 35-45 sustained in kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 bump up in winds to now 60-75 for the area...6z gfs 925 mb winds are nasty 60-75 kts over the region Eh, not really a bump... says in the text that the 75 mph winds will be localized to areas right on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 GFDL is a Cape May landfall. Seeing a decent adjustment SOuth this AM it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Wow, pressure down to 951 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Latest advisory also drops the pressure by 9 MB -- from 960 down to 951. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 28, 2012 Share Posted October 28, 2012 Bombogenesis underway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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