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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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From the 5PM NHC discussion:

FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO

AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO

NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND

HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE

CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

Lots of people are upset about it!

http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.PHI.gov/posts/490795654287171

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Lots of people are upset about it!

http://www.facebook....490795654287171

Wow. I'm kinda surprised to see the response from some people.

I definitely have an engineer's mind -- strict cut-offs based on well-defined criteria -- so maybe I just think differently. But these people who are saying, "oh it's not a hurricane watch, so I don't have to worry" are the same people who, if a watch were in effect, would be saying "oh we had a hurricane watch for irene and it wasn't so bad, so I don't have to worry".

All the products issued list the potential impacts pretty well. It's up to the media to communicate them effectively now.

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But these people who are saying, "oh it's not a hurricane watch, so I don't have to worry" are the same people who, if a watch were in effect, would be saying "oh we had a hurricane watch for irene and it wasn't so bad, so I don't have to worry".

And this summarizes well over 50% of the public. At work (mind you, in a hospital, in a department where the baseline education is 6 years post-HS), people were looking yesterday and saying, "Oh, they're saying it will hit in Delaware Bay...we should be okay." All the NWS statements say not to focus on a landfall point, but most people generally do exactly that. Even those who acknowledge a big storm is coming are basically saying that "We're really far inland, we should be fine. It'll only be rain and wind."

You really need to baby the public and treat them like they aren't scientists because an overwhelming majority just aren't.

I personally don't care whether a hurricane watch is issued, a high wind warning, or a falling frog warning gets issued. I get it. Something very significant is coming and preparations need to be rushing to completion by now. Most don't.

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Take a look ( in Parsley's photo thread) at the pics I took in Ocean City NJ this AM at 11:30. . It is just another day. Very little preparation. Stores open, restaurants serving meals, walkers, bicyclists etc. I think the word "Hurricane" would have made a difference. I expected to see boarded up stores. I did - I saw one.

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Take a look ( in Parsley's photo thread) at the pics I took in Ocean City NJ this AM at 11:30. . It is just another day. Very little preparation. Stores open, restaurants serving meals, walkers, bicyclists etc. I think the word "Hurricane" would have made a difference. I expected to see boarded up stores. I did - I saw one.

I have to admit, maybe "hurricane" might've mattered a bit more.

Or otherwise, maybe everyone is just taking this as a big hype storm. The media might've finally done us in.

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And this summarizes well over 50% of the public. At work (mind you, in a hospital, in a department where the baseline education is 6 years post-HS), people were looking yesterday and saying, "Oh, they're saying it will hit in Delaware Bay...we should be okay." All the NWS statements say not to focus on a landfall point, but most people generally do exactly that. Even those who acknowledge a big storm is coming are basically saying that "We're really far inland, we should be fine. It'll only be rain and wind."

You really need to baby the public and treat them like they aren't scientists because an overwhelming majority just aren't.

I think people tend to be optimistic with a lot of these things... and then there's the psychology of the hype that we always talk about here. When I hear statements like the above it's usually from people who are skeptical of "weather hype" because they've been "burned" in the past (simple by being in the part of the storm that wasn't so bad in their particular location, e.g., Irene).

Even if there was more emphasis on this storm, with tropical advisories and all, there will be some people in the region that don't get hit so bad... and the next time a storm comes along they'll be saying "ohh yeah, that's what they said for sandy, and it wasn't so bad". Some people just like to be dismissive / overly skeptical. Can't do much about them IMO.

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As a meteorologist, I know there's always a skepticism about what we say. The best thing we can do is put out an accurate, non-hyped forecast. I think we need to remember to go for the most likely solution, not the one that gets the most attention or covers our asses in case the worst case pans out. Our job is to inform the public and encourage them to trust us. If we routinely overhype storms or try to cover our ass by forecasting the worst case scenario, then the public won't trust us and we will have failed to do our job.

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I have to admit, maybe "hurricane" might've mattered a bit more.

Or otherwise, maybe everyone is just taking this as a big hype storm. The media might've finally done us in.

The media did you in on Irene, not Sandy. People didn't need a reanalysis six months later to know it wasn't close to a hurricane when it got to Jersey (no one cares that a buoy 100 miles off the coast had close to hurricane winds for ten seconds). That mistake has tarnished everyone's image (NHC, HPS, NWS). The NHC is valiantly trying to undo those errors by taking the scientific high road, but it may take years to change public perception of the "boy who cried wolf".

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The media did you in on Irene, not Sandy. People didn't need a reanalysis six months later to know it wasn't close to a hurricane when it got to Jersey. That mistake has tarnished everyone's image (NHC, HPS, NWS). The NHC is valiantly trying to undo those errors by taking the scientific high road, but it may take years to change public perception of the "boy who cried wolf".

That's what I mean, the media did us in with previous storms to the point that we aren't trusted the way we need to be if we are going to be able to do our jobs.

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As a meteorologist, I know there's always a skepticism about what we say. The best thing we can do is put out an accurate, non-hyped forecast. I think we need to remember to go for the most likely solution, not the one that gets the most attention or covers our asses in case the worst case pans out. Our job is to inform the public and encourage them to trust us. If we routinely overhype storms or try to cover our ass by forecasting the worst case scenario, then the public won't trust us and we will have failed to do our job.

ray, you are right on. Not an easy job, or a popular one. If it were easy, many would be doing it!

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That's what I mean, the media did us in with previous storms to the point that we aren't trusted the way we need to be if we are going to be able to do our jobs.

and to follow that up, TWC is now an entertainment channel where the word "catastrophic" is used in every report today. Careless is the nicest thing I can say about their reporting. Talk about overboard. And now I see they are ripping the NWS/NHC every chance they get about the decision to not carry tropical warning up north, even though they themselves admit that it won't be tropical by then. /rant

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As a meteorologist, I know there's always a skepticism about what we say. The best thing we can do is put out an accurate, non-hyped forecast. I think we need to remember to go for the most likely solution, not the one that gets the most attention or covers our asses in case the worst case pans out. Our job is to inform the public and encourage them to trust us. If we routinely overhype storms or try to cover our ass by forecasting the worst case scenario, then the public won't trust us and we will have failed to do our job.

here, here, Ray

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I suspect its the people who WANT hurricanes which are the ones who are upset. They probably feel it diminishes their need for a big storm. Just a hunch. My opinion only. wink.png

Not really. I feel the same way Ray. It's not unlike those who gripe and moan that they only had a WWA instead of a WSW. It's all in the semantics. I don't care what advisory/warning they use as long as it's advised or warned properly and the public knows the risks.

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Take a look ( in Parsley's photo thread) at the pics I took in Ocean City NJ this AM at 11:30. . It is just another day. Very little preparation. Stores open, restaurants serving meals, walkers, bicyclists etc. I think the word "Hurricane" would have made a difference. I expected to see boarded up stores. I did - I saw one.

Totally on point here...seeing the same thing along the coast in Monmouth County, NJ. Lots of prep last year for Irene, hardly anything for this. The term "hurricane" means a lot. High wind warning/coastal flood warning translation to the general public is that this will not be as bad as Irene.

Of course, if the NHC put up a hurricane warning and we experienced hurricane force wind gusts, hurricane like rain totals and hurricane like surge, imagine the outrage from the public once they found out that the storm was mostly cold core...oh the humanity, there would surely be congressional investigations

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Totally on point here...seeing the same thing along the coast in Monmouth County, NJ. Lots of prep last year for Irene, hardly anything for this. The term "hurricane" means a lot. High wind warning/coastal flood warning translation to the general public is that this will not be as bad as Irene.

The other possibility is that its just not busy down the shore in late October the way it is in late August. Maybe they'll get down there tomorrow. Who knows.

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