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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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Looks like consensus for PHL would be several hours of 30-40 mph winds with occasional gusts to 50 and 3-5" of rain. Interestingly enough it doesn't appear to make too much of a difference in terms of rain amounts as it appears almost all have the heaviest rain back towards C PA and MD whether LF is in DE or C NJ. Similar with wind...heaviest around COC but never makes it to PHL. Might not be as bad here as advertised considering in any LF scenario we would appear to be right in the thick of things but missing out on the worst. I have no complaints about this considering I have several large trees near my house and like my house/backyard just the way it is.

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The inverted trough of safety? It needs a name. We had a similar event happen during Irene. When it was at it's closest, winds died down and we have a period of eerie calm before the backside hit. That was a similar inverted trough so there maybe some legitmitate meteorology backing up PHL being spared. If it goes too far north of us we get the heaviest of rain. If it goes south of us we get the wind. It might as well just hit us straight on.

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There's always a chance...

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But I wouldn't plan on that.

Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential...

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Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential...

I have just spent four hours taking indoors anything that was not nailed down.

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I see enough.good mets to.know its legit....but really we run the chance in philly area of no mixing down of higher winds...even during heavy precip?

There's always a chance...

But I wouldn't plan on that.

Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential...

Clearer now?

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The HPC forecast is pretty bearable for, say, Philly and north. They might shift the heavier stuff up north on the next update but right now the heaviest blobs are mostly off-shore.

yea shift that track to central jersey from southern jersey and all that hvy rain comes north. Thats why i think being on the western side of this storm for inland locations is the worse case for us. The wind is a given no matter if it goes to del bay or LI we will get the wind. But if this goes into central or northern nj its a diff of 2-4 or 5-10 of rain.

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HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO

65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE WINDS MAY THEN

SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS OUR

AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 75

MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST.

------

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTERNOON...

* FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE

AREA.

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yea, what's the hold up with that..

I guess the worst storm in history is no big deal..

I don't know, this is pretty much all anyone is talking about. I think the public is pretty well informed as to what's coming...

The details of that High Wind Watch made me gulp when I saw it hit my phone. 4"+ of rain with those winds is pretty scary...

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From the 5PM NHC discussion:

FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO

AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO

NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND

HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE

CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY

LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

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