Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like consensus for PHL would be several hours of 30-40 mph winds with occasional gusts to 50 and 3-5" of rain. Interestingly enough it doesn't appear to make too much of a difference in terms of rain amounts as it appears almost all have the heaviest rain back towards C PA and MD whether LF is in DE or C NJ. Similar with wind...heaviest around COC but never makes it to PHL. Might not be as bad here as advertised considering in any LF scenario we would appear to be right in the thick of things but missing out on the worst. I have no complaints about this considering I have several large trees near my house and like my house/backyard just the way it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I see enough.good mets to.know its legit....but really we run the chance in philly area of no mixing down of higher winds...even during heavy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I see enough.good mets to.know its legit....but really we run the chance in philly area of no mixing down of higher winds...even during heavy precip? There's always a chance... But I wouldn't plan on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The inverted trough of safety? It needs a name. We had a similar event happen during Irene. When it was at it's closest, winds died down and we have a period of eerie calm before the backside hit. That was a similar inverted trough so there maybe some legitmitate meteorology backing up PHL being spared. If it goes too far north of us we get the heaviest of rain. If it goes south of us we get the wind. It might as well just hit us straight on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 EC says it makes landfall at Seaside Heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 EC says it makes landfall at Seaside Heights. Bye bye snooks! GFS and euro (nam as well) all seem in linearity their ensembles for a North central NJ hit. All we can do is bunker down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There's always a chance... [media] [/media]But I wouldn't plan on that. Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 80% of the GFS ensemble members are north of the op per the Wunderground map. This may have been the first run where this has happened and the gfs has a farther south landfall than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential... I have just spent four hours taking indoors anything that was not nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have just spent four hours taking indoors anything that was not nailed down. The fact that I am reading way too much into every post you and Ray make tells me I need to get some serious sleep...thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have just spent four hours taking indoors anything that was not nailed down. Yep, spent just about the same amount of time. Caulk and bungee cords were employed as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I have just spent four hours taking indoors anything that was not nailed down. Banter thread material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Banter thread material. He was making a point, I believe...WHOOSH! Anyway, shouldn't you be ranting about the EAS somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I see enough.good mets to.know its legit....but really we run the chance in philly area of no mixing down of higher winds...even during heavy precip? There's always a chance... But I wouldn't plan on that. Wouldn't plan on what, any high winds? Can you clarify this statement? It seems as though you and Rib are taking your foot of the gas so to speak. Please correct me if I'm wrong. Still taking this pretty seriously here even if we don't max out on wind potential... Clearer now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 here is dt's 1st guess map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Popping in from Harrisburg to wish you all the best. We definitely need those wishes here, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm surprised he thinks its still coming in that far south... He could be right, but I don't think I'd aim that far down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The HPC forecast is pretty bearable for, say, Philly and north. They might shift the heavier stuff up north on the next update but right now the heaviest blobs are mostly off-shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 here is the 15z sref 10m wind forecasts...mean has 30-40 sustained for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The HPC forecast is pretty bearable for, say, Philly and north. They might shift the heavier stuff up north on the next update but right now the heaviest blobs are mostly off-shore. yea shift that track to central jersey from southern jersey and all that hvy rain comes north. Thats why i think being on the western side of this storm for inland locations is the worse case for us. The wind is a given no matter if it goes to del bay or LI we will get the wind. But if this goes into central or northern nj its a diff of 2-4 or 5-10 of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Filthy on the 39hr NAM. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=10&model_dd=27&model_init_hh=18&fhour=39¶meter=WSPD&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is an Asbury Park hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like areas such as Island Beach State Park, Seaside Heights, Asbury Park area could be especially hard hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like areas such as Island Beach State Park, Seaside Heights, Asbury Park area could be especially hard hit. You mean all of coastal NJ* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow. Yeah, like a freight train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WINDS...NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE WINDS MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST LATE MONDAY AS THE STORM MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH, MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NEW JERSEY COAST. ------ ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 He was making a point, I believe...WHOOSH! Anyway, shouldn't you be ranting about the EAS somewhere? yea, what's the hold up with that.. I guess the worst storm in history is no big deal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yea, what's the hold up with that.. I guess the worst storm in history is no big deal.. I don't know, this is pretty much all anyone is talking about. I think the public is pretty well informed as to what's coming... The details of that High Wind Watch made me gulp when I saw it hit my phone. 4"+ of rain with those winds is pretty scary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From the 5PM NHC discussion: FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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