Boch23 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Tomato tomota... Lol. We're gonna get it good. The duration of 30-40mph winds alone will do some work on our area. I'd say trees are about 30%bare..still plenty of potential there. Still think leaves clogging drains will be a major issue. Down by Marshall road closer to where 69th street is, is notorious for flash flooding due to to the amount of "free roaming litter" that collects on the drains. Yeah driving home from work yesterday I notice a ton of clogged storm drains and people kind enough to put all the leaves that did fall onto the street. Even if drains are clear I see them clogging in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 959mb pressure from what i saw a met post for sandy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 958mb pressure already and it still hasnt had the phase or jet interaction yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Tom, which trees generally have the shallowest root system? I have a ton of tall pines around my house and am VERY concerned but I heard they have a deep root system. Is this true? What species? Generally, White Pines are shallow rooted, others from drier climes are a bit deeper. Maples are notoriously shallow rooted. Oaks are known to be pretty deeply rooted. Of course, White Pines and Maples are also notoriously weak wooded as they seem to break often, while oak breakages of significance are comparatively rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 State of emergency declared in the state of New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What is the latest thinking on potential surge at the shore? 10' possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What is the latest thinking on potential surge at the shore? 10' possible? Latest discussion 4-8 feet from Ocean City MD to CT/RI border. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting. I heard on 1060 this morning the record at long port was 9' during 1991 perfect storm. Got to believe this will be higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS is 947mb into central Nj, possibles barnegat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently, the GFS is 936mb @landfsll on the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apparently, the GFS is 936mb @landfsll on the GFS.. Where does it say that? Lowest I see is 949. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Where does it say that? Lowest I see is 949. https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/262220010062221313/photo/1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Model cluster has definitely moved north at 12z.. NJ is in trouble. http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Model cluster has definitely moved north at 12z.. NJ is in trouble. http://www.sfwmd.gov.../plots/storm_18 If that's the case, and it appears so, why did the NHC move the track and landfall south again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If that's the case, and it appears so, why did the NHC move the track and landfall south again? May be they can't update that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 May be they can't update that fast? 80% of the GFS ensemble members are north of the op per the Wunderground map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Cone of uncertainty still fairly large for landfall zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Both the NAM and GFS have winds dying down around and in PHL as the center comes on shore. Could this scenerio actually happen where the area that gets the direct hit actually escapes the highest winds. I mean this little area of lower winds is on the GFS too. What is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Both the NAM and GFS have winds dying down around and in PHL as the center comes on shore. Could this scenerio actually happen where the area that gets the direct hit actually escapes the highest winds. I mean this little area of lower winds is on the GFS too. What is it? Looks like a warm front to me. Or a inverted trough. There's definitely a feature in the isobars extending WNW from the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Don't tell anyone but the EURO is east of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Central NJ landfall is probably final verdict.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Landfall on the EURO in Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It has that same inverted trough sticking into PHL as the GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 66 Landfall in Central NJ. 72 Over Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It has that same inverted trough sticking into PHL as the GFS and NAM. What does that mean in terms of apparent weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 What does that mean in terms of apparent weather? Weaker winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ok...still the oz 6z convergence spoiled me...naive not to expect run to run variations on my part....but safe to say nogaps and canadian r outliers this suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Weaker winds. SWEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Rib will find anything to make storms look bust-worthy for our area ....haha. EURO track would still create terrible flooding with the rains IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Rib will find anything to make storms look bust-worthy for our area ....haha. EURO track would still create terrible flooding with the rains IMO Yep, if it goes South we're screwed, if it goes North we're screwed. We're just plain screwed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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