famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Awesome...thanks Ray! NP.... here's some divisions others might find more useful: Mount Holly CWA (same as the first link I posted) http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Delaware only http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=DE&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e New Jersey only http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=NJ&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Pennsylvania only http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PA&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Maryland only http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=MD&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Whoever gets under the coc and N&E quad will get less rain , higher winds Sw side, extremely heavy rains and still very breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 SW quadrant seems to have most precip. Left side of the track, just the same as if it was coming in from the SSW like normal (which would normally put the highest precip NW of the track). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 why does everyone keep saying these low pressures wont verify? None of the models are close to the pressure of sandy right now. Dropsonde just had 957mb vdm, maybe 960 at surface. This is even before they expected the true strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 why does everyone keep saying these low pressures wont verify? None of the models are close to the pressure of sandy right now. Dropsonde just had 957mb vdm, maybe 960 at surface. This is even before they expected the true strengthening. Read Tony's post on the physics, but just comparing to the models, the one global (EC) was verifying significantly higher. We'll see how things lead from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Read Tony's post on the physics, but just comparing to the models, the one global (EC) was verifying significantly higher. We'll see how things lead from here. I was just going off LEK post in tropical thread that the models are all two high on the storm pressures right now. this is the euro 850 winds...they say knowck 20-30 mph off for surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just a question though, since this is an extremely rare circumstance, that maybe the models ARE'T overdoing the pressure? Hurricane hunters just found a 957 MB pressure, which would lend itself to I think the lower pressures further north possibly verifying. They did with Isaac, Irene and a hybrid storm that made landfall in Canada. I forget that name. The perfect storm's and storm of the century lowest pressures were both estimated to be in the mid 960s as a comparison. Regardless as Ray posted surface pressure and winds don't always correlate and reason why they wisely dropped pressures as a barometer of hurricane category strength. Gloria in essence was a category three pressure hurricane with category one winds. This in no way minimizes the obvious damaging threat from this system as strong/high winds are going to last a long time (not to mention the heavy rain and the tidal impact because this stinker just had to coincide with the full moon.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 anyone know if NHC will still fly recon flights if she is designated post-tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 More like 20-30%. I was just going off LEK post in tropical thread that the models are all two high on the storm pressures right now. this is the euro 850 winds...they say knowck 20-30 mph off for surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Perhaps. Just remember, at 957 mb its still *barely* a cat 1 hurricane. Wind generation is essentially about as efficient as Irene was. Hunters reporting 76mph winds 100m west of center. Plus, she'll be strengthening coming into the coast. Still, even Irene during the 2-3hr height of the storm (heaviest rain bands) just here in Delco, plenty of people without power, plenty of trees down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hunters reporting 76mph winds 100m west of center. Plus, she'll be strengthening coming into the coast. Still, even Irene during the 2-3hr height of the storm (heaviest rain bands) just here in Delco, plenty of people without power, plenty of trees down. And PHL only gusted to 52 mph during Irene. Gusts to 65 mph would be significantly worse. My guess is PHL reaches 60, not sure about the 65 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 More like 20-30%. that would be 20-30 mph...95 kts is 109 mph 87 kts 100 mph...30% of that would be a reduction of 30 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 let me ask ray or tony this. say if these 944mb pressure verify, what would this apply then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 that would be 20-30 mph...95 kts is 109 mph 87 kts 100 mph...30% of that would be a reduction of 30 mph Depends on the atmosphere too. If its fairly stable (as it may be given this will be transitioning) you will need to wack off a lot more of that wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 let me ask ray or tony this. say if these 944mb pressure verify, what would this apply then? Apply? How you mean? Its not just the pressure. Its also the gradient, and the ability to mix higher winds aloft down to the surface. Like Tony said, they wisely removed pressure as a part of the hurricane ranking system for a reason. A "normal" storm would be cat 3 right now, based on the 957 mb pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 And PHL only gusted to 52 mph during Irene. Gusts to 65 mph would be significantly worse. My guess is PHL reaches 60, not sure about the 65 though. I can see that, very realistic. However, those 2a-3 hrs in Irene's peak, did some damage. The duration of the wind here will be the issue. 50's for 6-12 hrs would be a very bad outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Apply? How you mean? Its not just the pressure. Its also the gradient, and the ability to mix higher winds aloft down to the surface. Like Tony said, they wisely removed pressure as a part of the hurricane ranking system for a reason. A "normal" storm would be cat 3 right now, based on the 957 mb pressure. i was just wondering what a 944mb "potentialy" could have that a 960 mb storm wouldn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I can see that, very realistic. However, those 2a-3 hrs in Irene's peak, did some damage. The duration of the wind here will be the issue. 50's for 6-12 hrs would be a very bad outcome. yea but also, when irene hit their were more leaves on the tree and we were coming off the wettest or 2nd wettest august ever which aided to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting page to monitor river levels statewide. Don't know if anyone else has seen it. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ctp/pema/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Interesting page to monitor river levels statewide. Don't know if anyone else has seen it. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/ctp/pema/ I guess I've found the AHPS page a bit more useful... what can I say, I like colors http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=phi&view=1,1,1,1,1,1 Of course, that's just Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 i was just wondering what a 944mb "potentialy" could have that a 960 mb storm wouldn't Too much fixation on pressure (my fault). In a purely extratropical system we have locally found 80kts of wind at 850mb is a decent trigger for high wind warning threshold (50kt). It really has to do with the pressure fields and isallobaric contribution than the value itself. Its still tropical now, so we're in an apple/oranapple comparison. Without deep convection and or an adiabatic lapse rate, your mixing is not going to be as efficient. Irene's strongest wind gusts occurred after the sun came out on Sunday and we went adiabatic, very few places away from the coast had their highest gusts as Irene approached. I don't know if that seclusion process is going to somehow be able to maintain a guarded convective circle around its center. Water temps are in the 60s and its motion is not on Hazel's scale. Again this does not take away that a landfall in NJ or DE will likely be the new costliest disaster for that state. The winds are staying strong for too long. NHC gives EMC the pressure value and location for the 12z run, so this drop should be incorporated in the GFS. At anyrate, really got to go now, so good luck and hopefully you are not spending the rest of this year clearing debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 With the center... Conditions will detoritoate throughout Monday. Possibly raining here with some type of PRE event by Sunday. Didn't even think of that. But if the PRE were to set-up, wouldn't that be happening today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 yea but also, when irene hit their were more leaves on the tree and we were coming off the wettest or 2nd wettest august ever which aided to it. Tomato tomota... Lol. We're gonna get it good. The duration of 30-40mph winds alone will do some work on our area. I'd say trees are about 30%bare..still plenty of potential there. Still think leaves clogging drains will be a major issue. Down by Marshall road closer to where 69th street is, is notorious for flash flooding due to to the amount of "free roaming litter" that collects on the drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not understanding the concern about leaves still on trees. Aren't the first non-destructive gusts into the 30's going strip most of the leaves in short order leaving mostly bare trees when the real wind gets underway? It's late in the season and most leaves except maybe the oaks and beeches are ready to go at the first breeze. Leaves or not though, damage will be extensive. I've got generator gas for about 2 weeks including what I can siphen out of the truck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM 12z thru 36 , Cape May under mod-heavy rain. Track looks slightly farther West, perhaps just a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm not understanding the concern about leaves still on trees. Aren't the first non-destructive gusts into the 30's going strip most of the leaves in short order leaving mostly bare trees when the real wind gets underway? It's late in the season and most leaves except maybe the oaks and beeches are ready to go at the first breeze. Leaves or not though, damage will be extensive. I've got generator gas for about 2 weeks including what I can siphen out of the truck. The trees around here swamp/silver maples have about 80 percent of their leaves on them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The trees around here swamp/silver maples have about 80 percent of their leaves on them. yea alot of the maples are pretty much fully covered. Some havent even gotten color yet. Though, the oaks and beeches and ashes are a lot less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Tom, which trees generally have the shallowest root system? I have a ton of tall pines around my house and am VERY concerned but I heard they have a deep root system. Is this true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Tom, which trees generally have the shallowest root system? I have a ton of tall pines around my house and am VERY concerned but I heard they have a deep root system. Is this true? um not etirely sure. The only thing about pines, they may have a deeper root system but they also have a lot of resistance to the wind since they are evergreens. I would make a stab and say its maples? Thats a guess just from seeing the tree guys take out the maples and what not through our course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Ironically, highest winds will likely coincide with areas where trees have more leaves due to later leaf changing/drop. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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