jerseystorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 How strong? Looking at Instant Weather Maps, it's at 943 just before landfall. Most likely overdone but extremely impressive for only 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro Landfall at Indian River, DE at 944MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow@ euro. Absolutely unreal solution for call NJ , Delmarva, , PA., NYC ...6z nam leans towards 0z euro. Absolute qpf bomb with this. Where ever that southwest quad of the storm is as its pivoting, is gonna get the highest rainfall totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wow@ euro. Absolutely unreal solution for call NJ , Delmarva, , PA., NYC ...6z nam leans towards 0z euro. Absolute qpf bomb with this. Where ever that southwest quad of the storm is as its pivoting, is gonna get the highest rainfall totals... what kind of rain are you looking at for the lowerbusks area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I like Matt's overall take on things and his overall forecast call. http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/friday-evening-update-on-sandy-for-friendsfam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 "APPEARS THE STRONGEST WIND WILL BE COASTAL AND MONDAY. TOOK A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH W IF I95 SINCE THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NOT TOO MUCH TRANSFER. HOWEVER...THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCS/NW NJ RIDGES MAY END UP IN ANY FUTURE WATCH EXPANSION AND OR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY" Anyway I look at it from my area (Toms River) we are in for a ride. However cought this in the NOAA area discussion - based on this - maybe west of 95 is spared some winds - JCP&L warning that we could be without power for 7 -10 days, which I will head, but not 100% buying (in my area anyway 10 miles from the coast and no rivers to contend with - been pretty stable power wise through the years and numerous storms)-- local NOAA forcast rainfall amount has up to 5" rain -- local radio has it 6-10" for Ocean County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Wxsim rundown for NW Chester County PA Rain becoming more moderate by 1pm tomorrow Rain totals 1.04" by midnight 2.13" thru 8am Monday 3.02" thru 11am Monday 4.95" thru 1pm Monday 6.08" thru 4pm Monday 6.98" by midnight 7.83" by 5am Wed AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I like Matt's overall take on things and his overall forecast call. http://adiabat.wordpress.com/2012/10/27/friday-evening-update-on-sandy-for-friendsfam/ Damn good write up!! Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Current winds at my place in Sea Isle NJ are 15mph with gusts to 23mph out of the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Seems like guidance is adjusting South now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 In Toms River (inland a bit) Winds calm at 3.0 mph - slight NNE direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Models converging on NJ and Pa. Down here in Cape May: high clouds, fresh east breeze, moderate surf. They are removing the concrete benches from the promenade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I like Matt's overall take on things and his overall forecast call. http://adiabat.wordp...for-friendsfam/ Very nice write up...just linked this on my FB timeline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jerseystorm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 State of emergency has been declared in Atlantic County NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good luck everyone. Talk is the hyper deep pressures are likely off by 10-20mb because of diabatic processes in the core. Regardless, what has been said is true, if its still deepening as approaching the coast, we'll get an isallobaric contribution. A southern landfall, we'll break tidal records in the Tidal Delaware and Delaware River. A northern landfall, Sandy Hook should break its record. IMO I think its going to be the duration of the winds that actual peak values (plus all of the loosening of leaf laden trees from the heavy rain) that are going to take the toll on us. Check how the pressures are verifying. There will be deepening at the time of capture. I wish everyone the best of luck. I'll post on the other side of Sandy. Some good news on the winter. No way Eurasian snow cover is going to be below average for October, so our chances for a snowier than current average winter has tripled from about 18% to about 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Back to hurricane status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One question. Are we going to have an official obs thread, or should we just use the photo/video and or banter threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Current winds at my place in Sea Isle NJ are 15mph with gusts to 23mph out of the NE And it is at this point that water starts to slowly build in the back bays on successive flood tides because it cannot fully escape on the ebb due to the strong NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good luck everyone. Talk is the hyper deep pressures are likely off by 10-20mb because of diabatic processes in the core. Regardless, what has been said is true, if its still deepening as approaching the coast, we'll get an isallobaric contribution. A southern landfall, we'll break tidal records in the Tidal Delaware and Delaware River. A northern landfall, Sandy Hook should break its record. IMO I think its going to be the duration of the winds that actual peak values (plus all of the loosening of leaf laden trees from the heavy rain) that are going to take the toll on us. Check how the pressures are verifying. There will be deepening at the time of capture. I wish everyone the best of luck. I'll post on the other side of Sandy. Some good news on the winter. No way Eurasian snow cover is going to be below average for October, so our chances for a snowier than current average winter has tripled from about 18% to about 50%. thanks Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One question. Are we going to have an official obs thread, or should we just use the photo/video and or banter threads? Make one. we should have one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good luck everyone. Talk is the hyper deep pressures are likely off by 10-20mb because of diabatic processes in the core. Regardless, what has been said is true, if its still deepening as approaching the coast, we'll get an isallobaric contribution. A southern landfall, we'll break tidal records in the Tidal Delaware and Delaware River. A northern landfall, Sandy Hook should break its record. IMO I think its going to be the duration of the winds that actual peak values (plus all of the loosening of leaf laden trees from the heavy rain) that are going to take the toll on us. Check how the pressures are verifying. There will be deepening at the time of capture. I wish everyone the best of luck. I'll post on the other side of Sandy. Some good news on the winter. No way Eurasian snow cover is going to be below average for October, so our chances for a snowier than current average winter has tripled from about 18% to about 50%. Thanks for posting Tony, I'm sure you guys are um, busy right now. Good luck to you and yours, and thanks for throwing some cold water on Team Torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Some good news on the winter. No way Eurasian snow cover is going to be below average for October, so our chances for a snowier than current average winter has tripled from about 18% to about 50%. best news so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Good luck everyone. Talk is the hyper deep pressures are likely off by 10-20mb because of diabatic processes in the core. Regardless, what has been said is true, if its still deepening as approaching the coast, we'll get an isallobaric contribution. A southern landfall, we'll break tidal records in the Tidal Delaware and Delaware River. A northern landfall, Sandy Hook should break its record. IMO I think its going to be the duration of the winds that actual peak values (plus all of the loosening of leaf laden trees from the heavy rain) that are going to take the toll on us. Check how the pressures are verifying. There will be deepening at the time of capture. I wish everyone the best of luck. I'll post on the other side of Sandy. Some good news on the winter. No way Eurasian snow cover is going to be below average for October, so our chances for a snowier than current average winter has tripled from about 18% to about 50%. Just a question though, since this is an extremely rare circumstance, that maybe the models ARE'T overdoing the pressure? Hurricane hunters just found a 957 MB pressure, which would lend itself to I think the lower pressures further north possibly verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 One question. Are we going to have an official obs thread, or should we just use the photo/video and or banter threads? This will be very handy for y'all.. til the power and communications disruptions begin, anyway. http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=PHI&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just a question though, since this is an extremely rare circumstance, that maybe the models ARE'T overdoing the pressure? Hurricane hunters just found a 957 MB pressure, which would lend itself to I think the lower pressures further north possibly verifying. Perhaps. Just remember, at 957 mb its still *barely* a cat 1 hurricane. Wind generation is essentially about as efficient as Irene was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If EURO verified wouldn't Philly miss out on most of the heavy rains? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 If EURO verified wouldn't Philly miss out on most of the heavy rains? SW quadrant seems to have most precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 This will be very handy for y'all.. til the power and communications disruptions begin, anyway. http://raws.wrh.noaa...r1=22&orderby=e Awesome...thanks Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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