tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z gfdl 935, likely overdone... landfall around acy...also after sandy moves past hse and starts her bend back gfdl and hwrf which takes the storm into LI take sandy to a cat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 11:17 PM, phlwx said: weather bell map? If so, grain of salt on the snow in Eastern PA. Their maps were awful a couple of weeks ago with the Bastardi-hyped snow that never materialized around here. not sure, it was on twitter. WV should be close but we know EPA not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:48 PM, Boch23 said: You would prob want to head down before mandatory evacs are in place....they might not let you on the island at that point.the mandatory evacuation crap is retarded. Went down a day AFTER they supposedly closed all bridges last year with Irene and no one stopped us/was even around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:18 AM, tombo82685 said: 18z gfdl 935, likely overdone... landfall around acy...also after sandy moves past hse and starts her bend back gfdl and hwrf which takes the storm into LI take sandy to a cat 2 Yet another 'southern' outlier creeps up North. Still baffled by the NHC's southerly track from their last update... I wish for it up here in NW Jerz (former Media, PA earlier this week --- just moved), but not believing it at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:34 AM, BenchmarksTheSpot said: Yet another 'southern' outlier creeps up North. Still baffled by the NHC's southerly track from their last update... I wish for it up here in NW Jerz (former Media, PA earlier this week --- just moved), but not believing it at all... The NHC isn't really forecasting a specific landfall location, just a range of possible locations (i.e., the cone). If you turn the track on then it looks like it makes landfall between Lewes and Cape May, but that track is just a straight line between the last offshore position and the first onshore position. It could be that it actually comes onshore north of ACY and then curves down (WSW) to Baltimore to reach the Tuesday 2 PM position. As the disco says, pinpointing the actual landfall location isn't very important right now since it's likely to change anyway. Instead, the purpose of the forecast is to prepare interests inside the cone (between E LI and S VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Heading down to Sea Isle tomorrow PM to clean up but will be back on road to here by Sunday AM before mandatory evacuation Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 So pretty much according to the models the timeline for initial landfall is late monday night into Tuesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 1:19 AM, Engine2211 said: So pretty much according to the models the timeline for initial landfall is late monday night into Tuesday morning? With the center... Conditions will detoritoate throughout Monday. Possibly raining here with some type of PRE event by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Down at Cape May for the weekend. Beautiful moonlit evening with a flat ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 12:18 AM, tombo82685 said: 18z gfdl 935, likely overdone... landfall around acy...also after sandy moves past hse and starts her bend back gfdl and hwrf which takes the storm into LI take sandy to a cat 2 I've seen the GFDL and HWRF consistently blow up Sandy into a Cat 2 equivalent between 12z and 18z Monday. Due to the switch from tropical to ET perhaps? While I think those winds will be overdone, and I know nobody sees Cat 2 winds anywhere on land, it does worry me (and it hasn't really been discussed much) that Sandy will be strengthening right up to landfall, something you don't usually see up here. We all know from Josh how much more powerful a strengthening system is than a weakening one. (Even if that doesn't apply verbatim because he's referring to tight pressure gradients on warm-core systems, the idea remains the same.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 1:23 AM, chubbs said: Down at Cape May for the weekend. Beautiful moonlit evening with a flat ocean. Moon halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just a faint ring around the moon. Light east wind. Gentle surf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0Z NAM is further West on the track then at 18Z at the same 3 hour difference and looks more loaded with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:30 AM, LMolineuxLM1 said: 0Z NAM is further West on the track then at 18Z at the same 3 hour difference and looks more loaded with QPF. yeah...curious if it will have as severe a hook as other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:32 AM, NJHurricane said: yeah...curious if it will have as severe a hook as other models It does just exactly like the euro in the same spots as the 12Z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:36 AM, LMolineuxLM1 said: It does just exactly like the euro in the same spots as the 12Z euro. yep. christ, major pwnage run after run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Delmarva gets crushed this run rain wise through 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:41 AM, irishbri74 said: Delmarva gets crushed this run rain wise through 66 the QPF output is purely insane, most likely overdone but still insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 um, yeah... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:43 AM, LMolineuxLM1 said: the QPF output is purely insane, most likely overdone but still insane. I hear you, but the NAM has its moments. It was pretty accurate in the days and hours leading up to 2/4-5/2010 iirc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Just an epic amount of rain on the NAM, likely overblown since it stills Sandy close enough near the coast to drop rain on it before actually phasing and dropping more rain. Still, really fun model output to watch, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 2:46 AM, dryslotted said: um, yeah... 964 Storm increadable. this is almost the Philadelphia story that keeps on being passed around a bit, if it isnt its awfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 big storm surge north half jersey shore up to NYC I would think on that....big impact mid atlantic to New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/26/2012 at 10:37 PM, irishbri74 said: Per Cecily: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:39 AM, famartin said: What, don't like her outfit? She also appears to be karate-chopping your hometown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:43 AM, Parsley said: What, don't like her outfit? She also appears to be karate-chopping your hometown. Knock those number down by 10 across the board and I can sorta accept that map. Though seriously, its Friday and this thing isn't hitting til Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 GFS ....very similar to NAM.... still time for things to adjust but...yeah...right now draw a line halfway up the Jersey shore between Toms River and Sandy Hook....and you won't likely be far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 On 10/27/2012 at 3:56 AM, NJHurricane said: GFS ....very similar to NAM.... still time for things to adjust but...yeah...right now draw a line halfway up the Jersey shore between Toms River and Sandy Hook....and you won't likely be far off Yup, with I'd say equal (but lesser) chances of hitting Atlantic City and Montauk, NY directly. We'll see what the models say tomorrow. HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 comparison of 18z-0z hurricane models courtesy of dt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 27, 2012 Author Share Posted October 27, 2012 Per SV maps...euro comes in over avalon on Monday night...moves west across DE Bay into Kent County by 2 AM Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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