jerseystorm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The winds in the Derecho this summer lasted about 20 minutes and look how much damage it did.Think about those winds lasting 6-8 hours maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The wind field @850mb is just downright illegal....newton is turning in his grave. That is probably the best/funniest description of the models I've heard so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Cape May, NJ More towards central NJ me thinks. NHC needs to wake up...can't believe they kept the track the same or even a hair more south at 2PM update. Not much evidence to support that track anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 mayor Nutter just had a briefing on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I agree, NHC track should be at least ACY to ne PA if not further east at this point (no doubt will be at 21z update). My reading of the model suite is that Asbury Park NJ is the centre of the cone now, and a Long Island landfall is more likely than a Maryland-Delaware landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy is just crawling now north at 7 mph, Blocking seems to be in effect considering the latitude and time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 imho, the worse impacts minus shore, speaking directly for inland, would be a hit coming due west from nyc-acy in that range. We would be close enough to get big wind and we would get an arse load of rain. The east side of the storm would have a huge wind swath but it would be rain bands rotating through the day. Being in the path or jus west of it would put us in the wall of water rain wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 More towards central NJ me thinks. NHC needs to wake up...can't believe they kept the track the same or even a hair more south at 2PM update. Not much evidence to support that track anymore. Even though the timestamp on the graphic is updated, NHC I believe usually does not make changes to the track forecast during the intermediate advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 1903 hurricane??? This is only only one I can think of that actually cut NW into the NJ coast. Any similarities to this when it comes to effects? The 1903 cane was weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Corbett on twc STATE OF EMERGENCY IN PA DELCARED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Corbett on twc STATE OF EMERGENCY IN PA DELCARED I don't see this anywhere??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Corbett on twc STATE OF EMERGENCY IN PA DELCARED You watch twc? - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Wild time at the Jersey shore (winds in kt) surface?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I don't see this anywhere??? He was on a phone interview bout 5 mins ago declaring it. Not sure of the timing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Am I the only one who saw that..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question: Does anyone have a site that does surge prediction or tidal levels? Want to start following the Belmar and Manasquan rivers and beach areas. I have so many links after all these years but have not come across what I am seeking. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 imho, the worse impacts minus shore, speaking directly for inland, would be a hit coming due west from nyc-acy in that range. We would be close enough to get big wind and we would get an arse load of rain. The east side of the storm would have a huge wind swath but it would be rain bands rotating through the day. Being in the path or jus west of it would put us in the wall of water rain wise. Yeah if it does make landfall between AC and NYC you can take the 10-15 inches on the qpf map and shift it north. Do you think that much rain is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 STATE OF EMERGENCY IN PA DELCARED while NJ is still asleep at the wheel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question: Does anyone have a site that does surge prediction or tidal levels? Want to start following the Belmar and Manasquan rivers and beach areas. I have so many links after all these years but have not come across what I am seeking. Thanks! http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/index.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 For tides, I like this one better - http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 sref mean and surface wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Am I the only one who saw that..?? Nope I did too. Does anyone see a problem here with projected strength of the storm for the ne when Sandy is already down to a minimal hurricane now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Keep in mind this will not be your "traditional" cane as Sandy approaches the coast. Whether tropical or not, it's going to have a much larger wind field because of baroclinic enhancement and the transition to nontropical status. Wind field will be large over a larger area -- worst of worst may be north of landfall point but the size of the storm means the winds will be spread out over a larger area. You gotta get the tropical mentality out of your wind when you're thinking about this storm in terms of impacts...it will impact a large swath of real estate...yes, for the coast where it comes ashore matters more...but farther inland (west of the Turnpike in Jersey), the size of this is large enough where rain/wind impacts will be relatively uniform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nope I did too. Does anyone see a problem here with projected strength of the storm for the ne when Sandy is already down to a minimal hurricane now? won't the interaction with the trough/transition to ET cause strengthening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Nope I did too. Does anyone see a problem here with projected strength of the storm for the ne when Sandy is already down to a minimal hurricane now? No. The barclonic process when it phases with the jet is going to do some serious strengthening here. Especially with the placement of the jet exit and entrance regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hardly the look of a prototypical tropical system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah if it does make landfall between AC and NYC you can take the 10-15 inches on the qpf map and shift it north. Do you think that much rain is possible? it deff sounds like wherever the west side of this storm is will have a swath of 4-8 inches of rain. As you know with floyd and other systems you can't pick up on meso banding and what not. So yes their will def be higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 euro ens central nj around belmar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Hardly the look of a prototypical tropical system at this point. True. The visible satellite still shows very nice circulation however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 euro ens central nj around belmar. seems pretty dialed in at this point. the euro ens have not wavered much at all... overhearing a lot of folks in the office downplaying this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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