tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 over/under how many miles east the euro shifts at 0z? base number 300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 a piece of the energy does retro back into the trough and dump rain on I-95, New England and Upstate NY for Halloween. yeah, kind of an odd looking solution after 192, but to be taken with a grain of salt of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 over/under how many miles east the euro shifts at 0z? base number 300 50 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 450 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Yeah never go all in for a hybrid when the initial tropical system has yet to form...but some of the blocking potential being depicted....mmm not a bad hand to play. sleep deprivation here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Way to jynx it Tom.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 sub 952 at hour 204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 sub 952 at hour 204. Just wow and look at how far south the 540 line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 1938, Jersey style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 22, 2012 Author Share Posted October 22, 2012 Pretty big difference at 500 between the two models. Sharper trough on the Euro, flatter on the GFS. Classic block scenario on the Euro with a 576 dm ridge over Newfoundland. The telling feature is that there's a big storm modeled in the Atlantic for next weekend near 40/40 or 35/40, depending on the model. The Euro is the more southern (and western) of the two with moving this feature southeast from Newfoundland. It looks like this, in concert with a ridge developing to its north, prevents an "out" for the tropical system, blocking it from moving northeast away from Cuba, thus allowing a deepening trough to capture it. The ridge is stronger on the Euro than on the GFS, probably due to the trough in the US being a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Pretty big difference at 500 between the two models. Sharper trough on the Euro, flatter on the GFS. Classic block scenario on the Euro with a 576 dm ridge over Newfoundland. The telling feature is that there's a big storm modeled in the Atlantic for next weekend near 40/40 or 35/40, depending on the model. The Euro is the more southern (and western) of the two with moving this feature southeast from Newfoundland. It looks like this, in concert with a ridge developing to its north, prevents an "out" for the tropical system, blocking it from moving northeast away from Cuba, thus allowing a deepening trough to capture it. The ridge is stronger on the Euro than on the GFS, probably due to the trough in the US being a bit deeper. im not sure you are allowed to post images off of sv unless they gave you permission or what not. I know they have been told to stop in other forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Wow, something interesting to track. It's only been about a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Speaking of tracks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Yeah, there is a clear GFS/ECM split. The Euro ENS members, while not as strong as the op, are much closer to the Eastern Seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Meh...... Favoring a more eastern solution... Euro on its own and west of its ensembles big time.. A lot of pieces to this puzzle. The euro and Canadian are focusing on the TRopical disturbance fully phasing the trough. The GFS on the other hand is going Away from that, and taking an ordinary wave along the front and devolving it separate. Run of the mill rain storm..... At this point, I just don't know. Odds say side with the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Meh...... Favoring a more eastern solution... Euro on its own and west of its ensembles big time.. A lot of pieces to this puzzle. The euro and Canadian are focusing on the TRopical disturbance fully phasing the trough. The GFS on the other hand is going Away from that, and taking an ordinary wave along the front and devolving it separate. Run of the mill rain storm..... At this point, I just don't know. Odds say side with the GFS at this point. It's on the western edge of the envelope, but there are some ens members more phased and more west than the op. Given the teleconnections, I think the best forecast would take it up to the Maritimes next Tuesday, but there is a not insignificant chance that it heads up the Eastern Seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's on the western edge of the envelope, but there are some ens members more phased and more west than the op. Given the teleconnections, I think the best forecast would take it up to the Maritimes next Tuesday, but there is a not insignificant chance that it heads up the Eastern Seaboard. With a couple of systems this autumn, the Euro has had its southwest (or holding back) bias with systems over the Conus. Some of its solutions were a full 24 hours late with rain arriving late last week. I have to admit I haven't looked if its Canadian Maritimes solutions have been too blocky too. Looks like its 00z solution is a later phaser than the previous (I'm off don't get much at home)? Then again past performance may not be an indicator of future trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 With a couple of systems this autumn, the Euro has had its southwest (or holding back) bias with systems over the Conus. Some of its solutions were a full 24 hours late with rain arriving late last week. I have to admit I haven't looked if its Canadian Maritimes solutions have been too blocky too. Looks like its 00z solution is a later phaser than the previous (I'm off don't get much at home)? Then again past performance may not be an indicator of future trends.... Interesting. I've been so out of the weather the last few months, I haven't noticed what the model trends have been like. That's really good information to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 It's on the western edge of the envelope, but there are some ens members more phased and more west than the op. Given the teleconnections, I think the best forecast would take it up to the Maritimes next Tuesday, but there is a not insignificant chance that it heads up the Eastern Seaboard. I don't get the spaghetti plots, so was just going off the mean. Did hear a few were ampd up. Between the trudging out west affecting th incoming trough, the NATl low and the upstream ridging, and ooh yeah, how the tropical system develops, just a lot going on. I do know the euro tends to wrap up these tropical disturbances a bit too much at times, so that's why I'm playing it safe. Like it was pointd out above, some major differences between the synoptic 500h pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Interesting. I've been so out of the weather the last few months, I haven't noticed what the model trends have been like. That's really good information to know. You know the way the butterfly flaps its wings, with this it won't hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Will TWC be calling this Tropical Snowicane Sandy-Athena? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Will TWC be calling this Tropical Snowicane Sandy-Athena? They won't even cover the system, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 here is the new canadian at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 I'm heading out for plywood...... Lol its a Milville special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 here is the new canadian at 12z 944 making LF at my house, I should evac now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 Jesus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 944 making LF at my house, I should evac now, lol. The surge hasn't gotten you yet?! Maybe the super cold air being sucked down from the stratosphere into the eye will get you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 hurri-blizzard? 540 almost reaches Bermuda! Canadian is on something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 22, 2012 Share Posted October 22, 2012 here is the new canadian at 12z HA! Now THAT would be an interesting system were it to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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