Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Already took care of most yesterday. Going down tonight to tie up some loose ends and then ride this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Never thought I would say this but I admire the NGP's consistency! Euro as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NWS surge model prediction indicates widespread flooding. . This is at end of simulation. Waters are still rising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Models seem to be clustering around a hit between Delaware and Chesapeak Bays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That looks like its based of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That looks like its based of the GFS. The 06z to be exact. If it were to be run off the Euro, it would look extremely different down the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Models seem to be clustering around a hit between Delaware and Chesapeak Bays. Worst part is that hook back to coast.from east to west. Going to really aggravate coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The 06z to be exact. If it were to be run off the Euro, it would look extremely different down the coastline. Yea a Euro case would be shifted south . Just illustrates threat, too early to worry about particulars. Values would increase further if simulation was extended to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Surge for AC, probably based on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HPC disco notes again modeling tendency to overdo minimum pressure...ensemble mean pressures more clustered in the 960mbs range than any of these 944, 935,925 solutions. Its one of the nuances of the evolution of this thing to me...whether that will be the case or if the epic divergence comes to pass and allows this thing to deepen somewhere between the 960's and the more extreme min pressure solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Irene can be a comparison in the sense that people remember that storm...and if you say the worst of it is going to last three plus times as long as Irene did, then yeah, it's a fair game to play. A lot of people were crappin' their pants during those rainbands on Saturday night because of the tornado threat and the winds (it was windy...and people inland do remember that) were pretty bad during that timeframe...if you say "it's going to last longer than Irene's worst and could be worse than Irene" people get that and know it's going to be bad. The meteorological setup is different but for people who aren't hardcore weather enthusiasts Irene is what they remember. Saying "this is like Hazel or some storm from 100 years ago because the setup is X and Y" won't resonate with the public. Irene still does and people have asked a lot of questions about whether it will be similar in IMPACT to Irene. The meteorological setup is vastly different, of course, and I'm not disputing that... Also dodging away from Irene and tropical systems in general, Sandy will not be your usual tropical system at this latitude and will be transitioning into nontropical status. From a wind standpoint, whether it's west of or east of us is probably immaterial for the inland folk. There will probably be some baroclinic impact that will create some high winds on the sw quad as well, similar to your traditional nontropical system. Because the NHC is holding this as "tropical" til landfall does not mean it's going to be your traditional hurricane. to add to this, what made irene worse was the fact of how saturated the ground was and the amount of leaves on the trees. I could see a scenario where we gust higher during this storm potentially but due to the fact the leaves are falling and we are a little dry it doesnt create the mount of trees being uprooted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 HPC 5 day precip prog - over 12" just offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder if we miss out on the heaviest rains if this thing keep coming in that far south, like the Euro depicts. Not to say the rains wont be heavy, but I am curious as to how bad impacts will be here. The winds do concern me. really not looking forward to this mess. trending south per hc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Am I the only one who woke up, looked at the satellite and said "That's not a hurricane." It's a strong naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Exerpt from HPC discussion THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA, AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE INLAND. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC) AND IS CLOSE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF HPC/OPC CONTINUITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I wonder if we miss out on the heaviest rains if this thing keep coming in that far south, like the Euro depicts. Not to say the rains wont be heavy, but I am curious as to how bad impacts will be here. The winds do concern me. if the sandy tracks like the nhc has it, we will miss the heaviest rains but get the higher wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 if the sandy tracks like the nhc has it, we will miss the heaviest rains but get the higher wind And I am Unsure of the severe factor, like isolated tornadoes if we are on the NE side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 And I am Unsure of the severe factor, like isolated tornadoes if we are on the NE side of it. I am not really sure of any severe weather threat... SPC was saying nothing and I doubt there will really be much instability to work with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Exerpt from HPC discussion THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA, AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE INLAND. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC) AND IS CLOSE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF HPC/OPC CONTINUITY. Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayson Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep. Wouldnt be the first time that the models have way overdone the pressure values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep. Irene was modeled three, four days out to be 928/930 nearby the NJ coast on the Euro...have been thinking 960's for a while with the low pressure with Sandy...maybe upper 950's... Anything less than that seems really tough to get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW the NWS non-tropical surge site is now depicting an Atlantic City surge exceeding Ash Wednesday 1962 at the end of its 4 day forecast period, 3.5 feet (and it's steeply rising at 0.4 ft/hour at the end of the period.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep. Sandy could be subtropical, and not go fully extratropical for a while. I think the colder air intrusion will help to restrengthen Sandy somewhat. We'll see how deep the pressures go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 FWIW the NWS non-tropical surge site is now depicting an Atlantic City surge exceeding Ash Wednesday 1962 at the end of its 4 day forecast period, 3.5 feet (and it's steeply rising at 0.4 ft/hour at the end of the period.) yeah, saw that. luckily the end of the period is low tide. hopefully by the next high tide winds would shift, but not banking on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Sandy could be subtropical, and not go fully extratropical for a while. I think the colder air intrusion will help to restrengthen Sandy somewhat. We'll see how deep the pressures go. Yesterday's 12Z EC had Sandy sub 960 right now. Its 970. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I feel bad for coastal residents in terms of the exact landfall uncertainty....the one major aspect of this storm that won't be settled til the last minute is the area of greatest storm surge...damaging wind gusts, inland flooding etc will be easier to forecast for the entire area but pinning down the highest surge values is very dependent on an exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yesterday's 12Z EC had Sandy sub 960 right now. Its 970. Yeah, I never said it was going to be 930 MB like the EC shows, but I wouldn't write off something in the 940s yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question for you guys. This map (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne ) shows Reedy Point, DE to be well into the Delaware Bay, but when I look it up on google maps, it shows it along the coast of extreme southern Delaware (south of Lewes, DE on that map). Any idea if this box is in the wrong spot or is the box mislabeled, but the forecast is actually for that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 12 hr. ffg shows that Lehigh Valley/Bucks county can handle up to 3.5" of rain. Looks like we'll exceed that (based on HPC estimates). Any ideas on what the major rivers will be able to handle precipitation-wise? Delaware R. levels are currently running about 5' in Easton, flood level is about 22' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Question for you guys. This map (http://www.nws.noaa....e=map®ion=ne ) shows Reedy Point, DE to be well into the Delaware Bay, but when I look it up on google maps, it shows it along the coast of extreme southern Delaware (south of Lewes, DE on that map). Any idea if this box is in the wrong spot or is the box mislabeled, but the forecast is actually for that point? Apparently, there are two Reedy Points... https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Reedy+Point,+New+Castle,+DE&hl=en&ll=39.563353,-75.561218&spn=1.704459,4.22699&sll=38.501501,-75.062959&sspn=0.027036,0.066047&oq=Reedy+Point,+new&t=h&hnear=Reedy+Point&z=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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