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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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The 06z to be exact. If it were to be run off the Euro, it would look extremely different down the coastline.

Yea a Euro case would be shifted south . Just illustrates threat, too early to worry about particulars. Values would increase further if simulation was extended to landfall.

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HPC disco notes again modeling tendency to overdo minimum pressure...ensemble mean pressures more clustered in the 960mbs range than any of these 944, 935,925 solutions. Its one of the nuances of the evolution of this thing to me...whether that will be the case or if the epic divergence comes to pass and allows this thing to deepen somewhere between the 960's and the more extreme min pressure solutions.

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Irene can be a comparison in the sense that people remember that storm...and if you say the worst of it is going to last three plus times as long as Irene did, then yeah, it's a fair game to play. A lot of people were crappin' their pants during those rainbands on Saturday night because of the tornado threat and the winds (it was windy...and people inland do remember that) were pretty bad during that timeframe...if you say "it's going to last longer than Irene's worst and could be worse than Irene" people get that and know it's going to be bad. The meteorological setup is different but for people who aren't hardcore weather enthusiasts Irene is what they remember.

Saying "this is like Hazel or some storm from 100 years ago because the setup is X and Y" won't resonate with the public. Irene still does and people have asked a lot of questions about whether it will be similar in IMPACT to Irene. The meteorological setup is vastly different, of course, and I'm not disputing that...

Also dodging away from Irene and tropical systems in general, Sandy will not be your usual tropical system at this latitude and will be transitioning into nontropical status. From a wind standpoint, whether it's west of or east of us is probably immaterial for the inland folk. There will probably be some baroclinic impact that will create some high winds on the sw quad as well, similar to your traditional nontropical system. Because the NHC is holding this as "tropical" til landfall does not mean it's going to be your traditional hurricane.

to add to this, what made irene worse was the fact of how saturated the ground was and the amount of leaves on the trees. I could see a scenario where we gust higher during this storm potentially but due to the fact the leaves are falling and we are a little dry it doesnt create the mount of trees being uprooted.

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I wonder if we miss out on the heaviest rains if this thing keep coming in that far south, like the Euro depicts. Not to say the rains wont be heavy, but I am curious as to how bad impacts will be here. The winds do concern me.

really not looking forward to this mess.

trending south per hc

20121026_Sandy_5amTrack.gif

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Exerpt from HPC discussion

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

(PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND

WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST

(EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN,

GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH

TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO

NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT

EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE

PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA,

AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING

OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA

EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE

INLAND. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER

(OPC) AND IS CLOSE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF HPC/OPC CONTINUITY.

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I wonder if we miss out on the heaviest rains if this thing keep coming in that far south, like the Euro depicts. Not to say the rains wont be heavy, but I am curious as to how bad impacts will be here. The winds do concern me.

if the sandy tracks like the nhc has it, we will miss the heaviest rains but get the higher wind

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Exerpt from HPC discussion

THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE

(PARTICULARLY THE 00Z ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS WELL BEYOND

WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW YORK COAST

(EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE) EARLY IN

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE (CANADIAN,

GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS WITH

TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO

NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS, INCLUDING (BUT NOT

EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012, ISAAC 2012, DEBBY 2012 IN THE WESTERN

SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC, IRENE 2011, AND IGOR 2010. EVEN THE

PERFECT/HALLOWEEN STORM OF 1991 "ONLY" BOTTOMED OUT AT 972 HPA,

AND THIS FORECAST WAS ALLOWED TO EXCEED THAT SYSTEM WITHOUT GOING

OVERBOARD. PRESSURES FOR THE STORM WERE CAPPED AROUND 965 HPA

EARLY IN THE PERIOD PRIOR TO LANDFALL, AND ALLOWED TO WEAKEN ONCE

INLAND. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER

(OPC) AND IS CLOSE TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS OF HPC/OPC CONTINUITY.

Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep.

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Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep.

Wouldnt be the first time that the models have way overdone the pressure values.

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Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep.

Irene was modeled three, four days out to be 928/930 nearby the NJ coast on the Euro...have been thinking 960's for a while with the low pressure with Sandy...maybe upper 950's...

Anything less than that seems really tough to get to.

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Yeah, I'm starting to think BS on the guidance pressure values. One thing I've noticed is that the models keep a warmish core all the way to landfall...which seems ridiculous since it almost looks like its starting to transition now. Almost like they are keeping the latent-heat release (tropical) forcing going long after it will probably lose such forcing, making it artificially deep.

Sandy could be subtropical, and not go fully extratropical for a while. I think the colder air intrusion will help to restrengthen Sandy somewhat. We'll see how deep the pressures go.

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FWIW the NWS non-tropical surge site is now depicting an Atlantic City surge exceeding Ash Wednesday 1962 at the end of its 4 day forecast period, 3.5 feet (and it's steeply rising at 0.4 ft/hour at the end of the period.)

yeah, saw that. luckily the end of the period is low tide. hopefully by the next high tide winds would shift, but not banking on it.

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I feel bad for coastal residents in terms of the exact landfall uncertainty....the one major aspect of this storm that won't be settled til the last minute is the area of greatest storm surge...damaging wind gusts, inland flooding etc will be easier to forecast for the entire area but pinning down the highest surge values is very dependent on an exact track.

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Question for you guys.

This map (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map&region=ne ) shows Reedy Point, DE to be well into the Delaware Bay, but when I look it up on google maps, it shows it along the coast of extreme southern Delaware (south of Lewes, DE on that map).

Any idea if this box is in the wrong spot or is the box mislabeled, but the forecast is actually for that point?

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Question for you guys.

This map (http://www.nws.noaa....e=map&region=ne ) shows Reedy Point, DE to be well into the Delaware Bay, but when I look it up on google maps, it shows it along the coast of extreme southern Delaware (south of Lewes, DE on that map).

Any idea if this box is in the wrong spot or is the box mislabeled, but the forecast is actually for that point?

Apparently, there are two Reedy Points...

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Reedy+Point,+New+Castle,+DE&hl=en&ll=39.563353,-75.561218&spn=1.704459,4.22699&sll=38.501501,-75.062959&sspn=0.027036,0.066047&oq=Reedy+Point,+new&t=h&hnear=Reedy+Point&z=9

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