WeatherQ Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 That track literally runs right over my house in northern DE. NO THANK YOU. Please move north....mmmmK? with HPC QPF totals estimating in the 8+ inch rain.....figuring 60-70 mph winds mixing down to the surface.....all that foliage still on the trees.....the potential impacts....I would be fine with the GFDL solution, a strong High to the N over Sable Island and a track right into Currituck, NC..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The GFS has continued to shift SW towards the Euro and the 18Z is right through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm having a hard time believing we actually get a sub-940 Low at landfall as advertised by several models. But even if we do, models with wind output like the GFDL show winds not getting much above 35 kts at the surface. I just can't picture a 940 mb low with corresponding winds maxing out at 40 kts. Am I missing something huge? I mean yeah, surface friction, huge wind field radius, all that good stuff, but still... sub-940 and only 35 or 40 kts? C'mon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I'm having a hard time believing we actually get a sub-940 Low at landfall as advertised by several models. But even if we do, models with wind output like the GFDL show winds not getting much above 35 kts at the surface. I just can't picture a 940 mb low with corresponding winds maxing out at 40 kts. Am I missing something huge? I mean yeah, surface friction, huge wind field radius, all that good stuff, but still... sub-940 and only 35 or 40 kts? C'mon! 40 knots sustained for any period of time would be huge. It might not seem like it, but it would be. Many places barely cracked 30 knots sustained, briefly, with Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I am certainly not an expert, but there is a lot more going on than just your run of the mill tropical system. What up, Bug? It looks like you're getting lots if wx excitement up there compared to Memphis. Sent from my Milestone X 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 Many people I have talked to in this area firmly stated they would not leave if ordered since Irene was not as bad as expected. I feel as if there is a boy crying wolf feeling among locals. Ask them if they remember how bad Ida was at the Shore in November '09 and tell them it will be a bit worse than that. Ida bit*hslapped the SNJ coast pretty badly and that storm was south of Hatteras at its closest approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 40 knots sustained for any period of time would be huge. It might not seem like it, but it would be. Many places barely cracked 30 knots sustained, briefly, with Irene. ...this will probably be Shore and DE only, I would think? The Euro doesn't really crank the wind up much along I-95 or northwest...might get some 40 kt gusts but the worst impacts are clearly Shore and Southern DE in the Euro scenario. The GFS seems to be a bit worse on wind impacts overall...some of it being resolution of the model, some of it perhaps baroclinic but it looks like the winds are more widespread throughout the region (although still worse at the Shore). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ...this will probably be Shore and DE only, I would think? The Euro doesn't really crank the wind up much along I-95 or northwest...might get some 40 kt gusts but the worst impacts are clearly Shore and Southern DE in the Euro scenario. That's assuming the storm comes in as far south as the EC has it. I'm not ready to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 ...this will probably be Shore and DE only, I would think? The Euro doesn't really crank the wind up much along I-95 or northwest...might get some 40 kt gusts but the worst impacts are clearly Shore and Southern DE in the Euro scenario. The GFS seems to be a bit worse on wind impacts overall...some of it being resolution of the model, some of it perhaps baroclinic but it looks like the winds are more widespread throughout the region (although still worse at the Shore). also depends on what you are looking at. A lot of the srefs brings in 30-40 mph sustained winds into the city. Even if the euro verifies strong winds would accompany it. Yesterday when the gfs had this coming into jersey it had 90 kt 925 winds coming into boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 really not looking forward to this mess. trending south per hc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 really not looking forward to this mess. trending south per hc IF thats the actual path I don't think anyone in tidal flooding and flood prone areas are going to look forward to this. IT is interesting though how they keep shifting the track south. Then again I don't know if the south trend on the models continued last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Both the GFS and EC 0Z runs bring gust potential in excess of 60 knots across the Delaware Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 also depends on what you are looking at. A lot of the srefs brings in 30-40 mph sustained winds into the city. Even if the euro verifies strong winds would accompany it. Yesterday when the gfs had this coming into jersey it had 90 kt 925 winds coming into boston. I get the wind factor and that it's going to be bad...and gusty...sustained may be tough to do though given the friction factor (and also track, etc). Irene "only" got a 34 sustained, 51 gust at PHL in a rainband. I think that might be a likely benchmark (30-35 mph sustained, gusts to 50 in the city) but over a several hour period. The duration will be something though...several hours of that WILL cause power outages. I'm not far off from what the discussion is but winds in the city will probably not be *as* bad as at the Shore, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I get the wind factor and that it's going to be bad...and gusty...sustained may be tough to do though given the friction factor (and also track, etc). Irene "only" got a 34 sustained, 51 gust at PHL in a rainband. I think that might be a likely benchmark (30-35 mph sustained, gusts to 50 in the city) but over a several hour period. The duration will be something though...several hours of that WILL cause power outages. I'm not far off from what the discussion is but winds in the city will probably not be *as* bad as at the Shore, IMO. What role does elevation play into the wind game? Philly is on the coastal plain. Areas inland are a couple hundred to about 1,500 ft higher. Obviously ridge tops do better in wind events, but what about overall topography? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 one other thing -- can't discount the slight chance of a few brief downburst tornadoes...will be tougher to pull off since the atmosphere will be a bit more stable than in Irene but given the tropical-like nature of the storm there's a slight chance of something dropping in any rainband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 msnbc tracking http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/49546844/ns/weather/t/sandy-slams-cuba-high-impact-likely-us-northeast/#.UIppOsXA8ih Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So, correct me if I'm wrong, but that latest 5 AM NHC track would be absolute worst case scenario as far as Delaware Bay storm surge correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I get the wind factor and that it's going to be bad...and gusty...sustained may be tough to do though given the friction factor (and also track, etc). Irene "only" got a 34 sustained, 51 gust at PHL in a rainband. I think that might be a likely benchmark (30-35 mph sustained, gusts to 50 in the city) but over a several hour period. The duration will be something though...several hours of that WILL cause power outages. I'm not far off from what the discussion is but winds in the city will probably not be *as* bad as at the Shore, IMO. you cant compare this to irene at all. granted philly may not gust past 50 or they may still TBD. irene was weakening as it moved into the area. this storm would be strwngthening pressure wise. if you take the.nhc track we would.be on.the east side of the system not west. sandy has a huge wind field.compared to irene and the jet components are no where near irene. also we have a huge gradient.fron a 1035 high just north of.maine adding to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 So, correct me if I'm wrong, but that latest 5 AM NHC track would be absolute worst case scenario as far as Delaware Bay storm surge correct? Yes, even worst case would be a little further south then it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Any word on the euro ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Any word on the euro ensembles? pretty much same as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Anyone wanna opine on conditions for Halloween night in the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 pretty much same as 12z yeah, just looked at them myself on allan's page. still looks like the center of NHC's track. pm right into the delaware bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 you cant compare this to irene at all. granted philly may not gust past 50 or they may still TBD. irene was weakening as it moved into the area. this storm would be strwngthening pressure wise. if you take the.nhc track we would.be on.the east side of the system not west. sandy has a huge wind field.compared to irene and the jet components are no where near irene. also we have a huge gradient.fron a 1035 high just north of.maine adding to it. Irene can be a comparison in the sense that people remember that storm...and if you say the worst of it is going to last three plus times as long as Irene did, then yeah, it's a fair game to play. A lot of people were crappin' their pants during those rainbands on Saturday night because of the tornado threat and the winds (it was windy...and people inland do remember that) were pretty bad during that timeframe...if you say "it's going to last longer than Irene's worst and could be worse than Irene" people get that and know it's going to be bad. The meteorological setup is different but for people who aren't hardcore weather enthusiasts Irene is what they remember. Saying "this is like Hazel or some storm from 100 years ago because the setup is X and Y" won't resonate with the public. Irene still does and people have asked a lot of questions about whether it will be similar in IMPACT to Irene. The meteorological setup is vastly different, of course, and I'm not disputing that... Also dodging away from Irene and tropical systems in general, Sandy will not be your usual tropical system at this latitude and will be transitioning into nontropical status. From a wind standpoint, whether it's west of or east of us is probably immaterial for the inland folk. There will probably be some baroclinic impact that will create some high winds on the sw quad as well, similar to your traditional nontropical system. Because the NHC is holding this as "tropical" til landfall does not mean it's going to be your traditional hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Irene can be a comparison in the sense that people remember that storm...and if you say the worst of it is going to last three plus times as long as Irene did, then yeah, it's a fair game to play. A lot of people were crappin' their pants during those rainbands on Saturday night because of the tornado threat and the winds (it was windy...and people inland do remember that) were pretty bad during that timeframe...if you say "it's going to last longer than Irene's worst and could be worse than Irene" people get that and know it's going to be bad. The meteorological setup is different but for people who aren't hardcore weather enthusiasts Irene is what they remember. Saying "this is like Hazel or some storm from 100 years ago because the setup is X and Y" won't resonate with the public. Irene still does and people have asked a lot of questions about whether it will be similar in IMPACT to Irene. The meteorological setup is vastly different, of course, and I'm not disputing that... Also dodging away from Irene and tropical systems in general, Sandy will not be your usual tropical system at this latitude and will be transitioning into nontropical status. From a wind standpoint, whether it's west of or east of us is probably immaterial for the inland folk. There will probably be some baroclinic impact that will create some high winds on the sw quad as well, similar to your traditional nontropical system. Because the NHC is holding this as "tropical" til landfall does not mean it's going to be your traditional hurricane. agree with you here. No matter where it hits, wind will be a player given the spread away from the center. The biggest difference the eventual track can make, other than coastal surge is in the amounts of rain that will be seen in any one location. A track into the Delmarva should lessen rain somewhat into Jersey and SE-PA. 3-5" versus 5-10" magnitudes I should think. A worse case is likely the 06z GFS of this morning, where it takes Sandy into NYC an then it moves SW to Phiily and then back up I95 to NYC. That would be brutal rain-wise with a capital B and in bold print. Someone somewhere is going to pick up 15" out of this, and I hope it's no one we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NGP still quite the hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 I do remember the height of the Irene rain and right before we got dry slotted. Very intense winds. I remember being in my car, and spooked at a good amount of tree branches coming down. Also, consecutive power flashes within 1-2 minutes at the peak of the gusts. It was pretty badass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 NGP still quite the hit the lines are so close, I can't even make out where landfall is LOL. BTW, when you going down to the shore to take care ofr busniess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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