Boch23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 My main concern is storm surge. If it tracks south of Delaware Bay, water funnels up the bay and floods Philadelphia and Camden, among others. Max Mayfield really got me extra concerned about this years ago. A Cat 3, for example, would give Philly a 15 foot storm surge! Yes, that's 15 feet. Also, the coastal flooding in NJ would be at record levels. Some areas could see the ocean meet the bay, as in the '62 Nor'easter, when LBI was cut into 4 pieces. Compare that to inland flooding, which we've seen with Irene and Floyd. We've never seen anything like the above. Glenn Thanks for the explanation it was probably just my interpretation of scenario one. I thought you hit the nail on the head with the direct hit and did it without hitting the big red panic button which I imagine is hard to do in the media. Lets hope we never see a Cat 3 take this once in a lifetime path. Keep up the good coverage! Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z nogaps take it fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS gonna be about a NYC-NNJ annihilation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 5pm NHC track's center line comes in some where in Ocean Co., up to around Trenton. I'm surprised our forum isn't more active, but I think everyone has piled into the thread on the New England forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS gonna be about a NYC-NNJ annihilation comes in at sandy hook then back sw over philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'd take a guess at landfall between Sandy Hook and Cape May. I agree that the EC is most likely over phasing a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 5pm NHC track's center line comes in some where in Ocean Co., up to around Trenton. I'm surprised our forum isn't more active, but I think everyone has piled into the thread on the New England forum. people just realize this can still and probably will change. Granted someone is going to get hit but where sandy exact spot is yet to be determined. Also, what is great about this thread and bad about others is people dont just post stuff to hear them self talk. People in here post model stuff asks questions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z nogaps take it fwiw Broken link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 It would only be fitting for Sandy to make landfall at "Sandy" Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 comes in at sandy hook then back sw over philly. Looks like 942 over Sandy Hook, Then into SC PA at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Broken link. poop, i forgot the site is protected...it takes a track up the del bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 so whats next..tracking to the azores before hooking back to St Louis? gotta be some loopy ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 18z GFS representation of wrapping the cold 850 line around from the south up through delaware and northwest into pa is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>people just realize this can still and probably will change. I still think it's Emergency Alert System time. Mine as well get the public's full attention now. Since so many still think this is just typical 'media hype'. 18Z GFS is truly devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>people just realize this can still and probably will change. I still think it's Emergency Alert System time. Mine as well get the public's full attention now. Since so many still think this is just typical 'media hype'. 18Z GFS is truly devastating. thats bad, but not worse case for del/nj beaches. the wind would be blowing out to sea...worst case is approaching from se into delmarva or del bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 thats bad, but not worse case for del/nj beaches. the wind would be blowing out to sea...worst case is approaching from se into delmarva or del bay Not just talking coastal. River flooding / wind damage / long term power outages, etc. Especially in such a populated area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Since we’re not too busy now, a couple of questions. Sandy is looking less impressive during the last several hours and normally with a tropical system we might infer that the system won’t live up to model projections. Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded in this case considering the widespread model agreement and the fact that it will receive a huge energy injection in the next 48 hours? Also, will the storm have an advantage or disadvantage by staying well out to sea before turning west? Seems to miss the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Since we’re not too busy now, a couple of questions. Sandy is looking less impressive during the last several hours and normally with a tropical system we might infer that the system won’t live up to model projections. Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded in this case considering the widespread model agreement and the fact that it will receive a huge energy injection in the next 48 hours? Also, will the storm have an advantage or disadvantage by staying well out to sea before turning west? Seems to miss the gulf stream. It was always supposed to weaken a bit today before divergence aloft increases tomorrow. It's a good question though. Since this will be strongly baroclinically enhanced, I don't think it will matter too much. Again, a great question though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Juts simply a disgusting jet structure surrounding this storm... A left exit, and 2 right entrance regions of the jet surrounding this....unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>people just realize this can still and probably will change. I still think it's Emergency Alert System time. Mine as well get the public's full attention now. Since so many still think this is just typical 'media hype'. 18Z GFS is truly devastating. Absolutely not time for any EAS usage. This incessant desire for entering panic mode is not justified 50+ hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Absolutely not time for any EAS usage. This incessant desire for entering panic mode is not justified 50+ hours out. cough cough 2001! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gef mean takes it exactly like ecmwf ens central jerz to phl...gfs ens individual members are centered over delmarva to nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 >>Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded Yes, we're in somewhat uncharted territory with Frankenstorm. It will continue strengthening as a hybrid, after an initial period of possible weakening over the next 24 hours. In tropical terms the max winds will weaken some (fingers crossed)...but will eventually be more spread out over a larger swath. (hybrid - post tropical) Even the amount of weakening with the winds is still somewhat of a question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This is why I joined this site a few years ago and read to this thread for both winter and potential emergency weather situations. I lurk and I learn and the information in this thread is invaluable to me - I can now make plans and prepare in NJ - Ocean County shore area. I work in MD and my family is in NJ so this situation is extremely relevant and appreciated. Alan Kasper in NJ started reporting some "urgency" on this back on Monday - he usually doesn't send up that red flag unless he truly see's something, that is my trigger to start following thread. OK Back to lurking - Thank You Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Glenn update http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Hurricanes-Blogs-Tracking-Sandy-Part-4-175878671.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This is why I joined this site a few years ago and read to this thread for both winter and potential emergency weather situations. I lurk and I learn and the information in this thread is invaluable to me - I can now make plans and prepare in NJ - Ocean County shore area. I work in MD and my family is in NJ so this situation is extremely relevant and appreciated. Alan Kasper in NJ started reporting some "urgency" on this back on Monday - he usually doesn't send up that red flag unless he truly see's something, that is my trigger to start following thread. OK Back to lurking - Thank You Thanks for posting. When the time comes, your weather obs. will be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 fwiw new 18z gfdl is south of the euro...932mb around orf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 If you have a shore house but live well inland... you might consider going down tomorrow to batten down the hatches. By Saturday I suspect evacuations will be ordered if this thing still looks like it does now, and even if you can still make it in, you might not *want* to given the traffic mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Broken link. Here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Thanks for posting. When the time comes, your weather obs. will be appreciated. 1) Hope I can report as obs - normal Fall Day a bit breezy 2) If things stand - may not have power to report 3) Still watching this puppy - always enjoy Tombo's unbiased updates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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