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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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My main concern is storm surge. If it tracks south of Delaware Bay, water funnels up the bay and floods Philadelphia and Camden, among others. Max Mayfield really got me extra concerned about this years ago. A Cat 3, for example, would give Philly a 15 foot storm surge! Yes, that's 15 feet. Also, the coastal flooding in NJ would be at record levels. Some areas could see the ocean meet the bay, as in the '62 Nor'easter, when LBI was cut into 4 pieces.

Compare that to inland flooding, which we've seen with Irene and Floyd. We've never seen anything like the above.

Glenn

Thanks for the explanation it was probably just my interpretation of scenario one. I thought you hit the nail on the head with the direct hit and did it without hitting the big red panic button which I imagine is hard to do in the media. Lets hope we never see a Cat 3 take this once in a lifetime path. Keep up the good coverage! Thanks again.

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The 5pm NHC track's center line comes in some where in Ocean Co., up to around Trenton.

I'm surprised our forum isn't more active, but I think everyone has piled into the thread on the New England forum.

people just realize this can still and probably will change. Granted someone is going to get hit but where sandy exact spot is yet to be determined. Also, what is great about this thread and bad about others is people dont just post stuff to hear them self talk. People in here post model stuff asks questions

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>>people just realize this can still and probably will change.

I still think it's Emergency Alert System time. Mine as well get the public's full attention now. Since so many still think this is just typical 'media hype'.

18Z GFS is truly devastating.

thats bad, but not worse case for del/nj beaches. the wind would be blowing out to sea...worst case is approaching from se into delmarva or del bay

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Since we’re not too busy now, a couple of questions. Sandy is looking less impressive during the last several hours and normally with a tropical system we might infer that the system won’t live up to model projections. Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded in this case considering the widespread model agreement and the fact that it will receive a huge energy injection in the next 48 hours? Also, will the storm have an advantage or disadvantage by staying well out to sea before turning west? Seems to miss the gulf stream.

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Since we’re not too busy now, a couple of questions. Sandy is looking less impressive during the last several hours and normally with a tropical system we might infer that the system won’t live up to model projections. Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded in this case considering the widespread model agreement and the fact that it will receive a huge energy injection in the next 48 hours? Also, will the storm have an advantage or disadvantage by staying well out to sea before turning west? Seems to miss the gulf stream.

It was always supposed to weaken a bit today before divergence aloft increases tomorrow. It's a good question though.

Since this will be strongly baroclinically enhanced, I don't think it will matter too much. Again, a great question though.

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>>people just realize this can still and probably will change.

I still think it's Emergency Alert System time. Mine as well get the public's full attention now. Since so many still think this is just typical 'media hype'.

18Z GFS is truly devastating.

Absolutely not time for any EAS usage. This incessant desire for entering panic mode is not justified 50+ hours out.

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>>Should the appearance of the storm be somewhat discarded

Yes, we're in somewhat uncharted territory with Frankenstorm. It will continue strengthening as a hybrid, after an initial period of possible weakening over the next 24 hours.

In tropical terms the max winds will weaken some (fingers crossed)...but will eventually be more spread out over a larger swath. (hybrid - post tropical) Even the amount of weakening with the winds is still somewhat of a question mark.

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This is why I joined this site a few years ago and read to this thread for both winter and potential emergency weather situations. I lurk and I learn and the information in this thread is invaluable to me - I can now make plans and prepare in NJ - Ocean County shore area. I work in MD and my family is in NJ so this situation is extremely relevant and appreciated.

Alan Kasper in NJ started reporting some "urgency" on this back on Monday - he usually doesn't send up that red flag unless he truly see's something, that is my trigger to start following thread. OK Back to lurking - Thank You

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This is why I joined this site a few years ago and read to this thread for both winter and potential emergency weather situations. I lurk and I learn and the information in this thread is invaluable to me - I can now make plans and prepare in NJ - Ocean County shore area. I work in MD and my family is in NJ so this situation is extremely relevant and appreciated.

Alan Kasper in NJ started reporting some "urgency" on this back on Monday - he usually doesn't send up that red flag unless he truly see's something, that is my trigger to start following thread. OK Back to lurking - Thank You

Thanks for posting. When the time comes, your weather obs. will be appreciated.

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If you have a shore house but live well inland... you might consider going down tomorrow to batten down the hatches. By Saturday I suspect evacuations will be ordered if this thing still looks like it does now, and even if you can still make it in, you might not *want* to given the traffic mess.

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