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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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If any of the latest models are correct, Monday looks like a good day to stay home and hope that the rain/wind don't cause major problems to the house.

Agreed. We'are having everyone test their remote access today to get any issues resolved before the weekend. That of course would need power and internet to work from people's homes, but you never know. Monday's a hunker down day...

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We have a house on the Delaware Bay in North Cape May. We are a block or so from the beach. We are doing the necessary preparations but is it remotely possible the water overspills the dunes here and floods us out on the D-Bay side? That would be a 20 foot surge I would think.

Opinions? Time to really panic?

Models starting with the 18z runs today will have the extra data ingested. That said, the s/w in the Pacific will be better sampled at some point tomorrow as it gets over the west coast. IMHO, 12z Saturday is when I would be concerned IF the models have you in the right front quad. Even then, why panic. No one can do anything about it. All you can do is go down Friday evening and protect as much property and building as you can and hope for the best. I've been in flooding situations before, and at some point after you've done all you can, you're at both peace and resignation over what might come. We got lucky all the times the water got to the foundations of the house, so hope for the best.

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adam do you believe the euros turn of sandy due west to even sw? That just seems like its a little overdone? If i had to make a cal i would say from lewes to nyc would be the spot for landfall.

I'd normally agree, but I just saw this on the main page. Pretty incredible agreement between the Euro OP and Euro/GFS emsembles. Delaware Bay it:

GFS_EnKF.gif

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adam do you believe the euros turn of sandy due west to even sw? That just seems like its a little overdone? If i had to make a cal i would say from lewes to nyc would be the spot for landfall.

Nope. I actually still think we'll see some adjustment back north from the ENS. I'll take Montauk to ACY.

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Nope. I actually still think we'll see some adjustment back north from the ENS. I'll take Montauk to ACY.

yea thats what im thinking to. I just don't see how this can go any further south. You take in the euros tendency to over phase things a little you get a track with the gefs and euro ens. ALso where is the strongest wind with this? I know the wind field spreads out but i have seen maps showing the sw side of the storm has strongest winds. Take the gfs. the storm makes landfall by LI, but the 850 winds are over 105 mph in phl to dc,

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Just watched NBC10 they said if the storm goes north of us it will be less of an impact. But if it goes north of us doesn't that mean more of a rain/flood threat for us opposed to a rain and wind threat from the direct hit?

Yeah. Heaviest rain will be in def band on the west side of the circulation

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Just watched NBC10 they said if the storm goes north of us it will be less of an impact. But if it goes north of us doesn't that mean more of a rain/flood threat for us opposed to a rain and wind threat from the direct hit?

My main concern is storm surge. If it tracks south of Delaware Bay, water funnels up the bay and floods Philadelphia and Camden, among others. Max Mayfield really got me extra concerned about this years ago. A Cat 3, for example, would give Philly a 15 foot storm surge! Yes, that's 15 feet. Also, the coastal flooding in NJ would be at record levels. Some areas could see the ocean meet the bay, as in the '62 Nor'easter, when LBI was cut into 4 pieces.

Compare that to inland flooding, which we've seen with Irene and Floyd. We've never seen anything like the above.

Glenn

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