tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hr 102 looks like its gonna hit around del/md border bout the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hr 96 sub 960 neading nw towards mouth of del bay "Philadelphia Story" - JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sounds like we are honing in on a NYC-LI blast from most guidance now. I wouldn't venture to say that at all. I think anywhere from Montauk to Cape May has a chance of having landfall at this point. My best guess is from AC to Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hr 108 landfall on delmarva pennisula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What is this "Philadelphia Story"? Someone have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What is this "Philadelphia Story"? Someone have a link? Basically a storm surge up the Del Bay with large quantities of rainfall draining down the Delaware river meetting in Philadelphia for a big flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone have the 108hr map of the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 What is this "Philadelphia Story"? Someone have a link? http://patriotpost.us/opinion/15187 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Not sure "Philadelphia story" is applicable in this case. Heaviest rains are modeled on SW side of storm while worst surge is on N side. Euro would give us lighter rains but higher surge in De Bay and shore while GFS/GEM would give us heavier rains but less surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z Euro takes it sub 928mb for 99/102 hours Winds are strongest in this area 102-105 hours (winds in kts) 102 hours 105 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro position killed Amwx for awhile I guess. LOL. Just got word that PPL has cancelled conferences and meetings for next week. It's all hands on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If any of the latest models are correct, Monday looks like a good day to stay home and hope that the rain/wind don't cause major problems to the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We have a house on the Delaware Bay in North Cape May. We are a block or so from the beach. We are doing the necessary preparations but is it remotely possible the water overspills the dunes here and floods us out on the D-Bay side? That would be a 20 foot surge I would think. Opinions? Time to really panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If any of the latest models are correct, Monday looks like a good day to stay home and hope that the rain/wind don't cause major problems to the house. Agreed. We'are having everyone test their remote access today to get any issues resolved before the weekend. That of course would need power and internet to work from people's homes, but you never know. Monday's a hunker down day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 heres a scary thought, the 850mb winds off the 12z gfs are 105-110 mph...2m sustained are 35-45 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 We have a house on the Delaware Bay in North Cape May. We are a block or so from the beach. We are doing the necessary preparations but is it remotely possible the water overspills the dunes here and floods us out on the D-Bay side? That would be a 20 foot surge I would think. Opinions? Time to really panic? Models starting with the 18z runs today will have the extra data ingested. That said, the s/w in the Pacific will be better sampled at some point tomorrow as it gets over the west coast. IMHO, 12z Saturday is when I would be concerned IF the models have you in the right front quad. Even then, why panic. No one can do anything about it. All you can do is go down Friday evening and protect as much property and building as you can and hope for the best. I've been in flooding situations before, and at some point after you've done all you can, you're at both peace and resignation over what might come. We got lucky all the times the water got to the foundations of the house, so hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 heres a scary thought, the 850mb winds off the 12z gfs are 105-110 mph...2m sustained are 35-45 mph Do you think the sfc winds are underdone? Or that we will just see insane gusts (65+)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hi guys. I'm in State College. The Euro ensemble is a direct hit on Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you think the sfc winds are underdone? Or that we will just see insane gusts (65+)? Im not entirely sure. I have heard people say you deduct 20-40mph off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Hi guys. I'm in State College. The Euro ensemble is a direct hit on Philly. adam do you believe the euros turn of sandy due west to even sw? That just seems like its a little overdone? If i had to make a cal i would say from lewes to nyc would be the spot for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 euro ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 adam do you believe the euros turn of sandy due west to even sw? That just seems like its a little overdone? If i had to make a cal i would say from lewes to nyc would be the spot for landfall. I'd normally agree, but I just saw this on the main page. Pretty incredible agreement between the Euro OP and Euro/GFS emsembles. Delaware Bay it: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 adam do you believe the euros turn of sandy due west to even sw? That just seems like its a little overdone? If i had to make a cal i would say from lewes to nyc would be the spot for landfall. Nope. I actually still think we'll see some adjustment back north from the ENS. I'll take Montauk to ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Nope. I actually still think we'll see some adjustment back north from the ENS. I'll take Montauk to ACY. yea thats what im thinking to. I just don't see how this can go any further south. You take in the euros tendency to over phase things a little you get a track with the gefs and euro ens. ALso where is the strongest wind with this? I know the wind field spreads out but i have seen maps showing the sw side of the storm has strongest winds. Take the gfs. the storm makes landfall by LI, but the 850 winds are over 105 mph in phl to dc, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yea thats what im thinking to. I just don't see how this can go any further south. You take in the euros tendency to over phase things a little you get a track with the gefs and euro ens. Yeah. It's not like there isn't a lot of east spread in both the GEFS and ECENS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just watched NBC10 they said if the storm goes north of us it will be less of an impact. But if it goes north of us doesn't that mean more of a rain/flood threat for us opposed to a rain and wind threat from the direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just watched NBC10 they said if the storm goes north of us it will be less of an impact. But if it goes north of us doesn't that mean more of a rain/flood threat for us opposed to a rain and wind threat from the direct hit? Yeah. Heaviest rain will be in def band on the west side of the circulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just watched NBC10 they said if the storm goes north of us it will be less of an impact. But if it goes north of us doesn't that mean more of a rain/flood threat for us opposed to a rain and wind threat from the direct hit? My main concern is storm surge. If it tracks south of Delaware Bay, water funnels up the bay and floods Philadelphia and Camden, among others. Max Mayfield really got me extra concerned about this years ago. A Cat 3, for example, would give Philly a 15 foot storm surge! Yes, that's 15 feet. Also, the coastal flooding in NJ would be at record levels. Some areas could see the ocean meet the bay, as in the '62 Nor'easter, when LBI was cut into 4 pieces. Compare that to inland flooding, which we've seen with Irene and Floyd. We've never seen anything like the above. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Glenn -- just watched you on TV. Thanks so much for contributing to this forum. Are you leaning more toward the Euro or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Glenn -- just watched you on TV. Thanks so much for contributing to this forum. Are you leaning more toward the Euro or the GFS? think NHC finally has it right Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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