mattinpa Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would there be a tornado threat, or just heavy rain and some wind due to the cool temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 just my honest opinion, i think the furthest south this can go is delmarva region. I think the euro at 12z will bounce back north and show a hit between lewes and toms river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Would there be a tornado threat, or just heavy rain and some wind due to the cool temps? tornado threat is on the east side of the storm, while west side is hvy rain. That is for tropical systmes im not sure bout this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 gefs individual members have a lot of hits from delmarva to long island. The mean comes onshore south of nyc around sandy hook as a sub 976 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 gefs individual members have a lot of hits from delmarva to long island. The mean comes onshore south of nyc around sandy hook as a sub 976 storm The individ are out already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Do you hate the people, or just that they post the link? To be safe, I'm fixing it. Sorry - was in Gary Gray mode - didn't have much time. Oh, I hate both Seriously though, I went back through the October snow fest thread a few days ago and its very disappointing to see all the images that aren't there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wish I had invested in a generator My wife made a run to stock up this afternoon. I'm going to hit up Lowe's after work. Better to have it and not need it (esp. with little one at home). I think tomorrow and Saturday will be bedlam if the consensus holds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The individ are out already? i get them through vista... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12z ggem is basically a match to 12z gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 For those who have followed JB for years you may remember his theory on his weather related "Philadelphia Story" ....well he thinks this will be the storm that meets the criteria. Basically a tropical storm/hurricane coming almost right up the Delaware Bay forcing water up the Bay and then meeting the flooding coming down river from the heavy rain and causing serious flooding into the coastal plain at Philadelphia. This would also represent the most damaging storm since 1944 for the NJ shore. He has certainly never wavered on his forecast since at least last Saturday - but a little early for the old "kudos to JB" - but certainly something to watch. I will probably be heading down to Sea Isle to batten down the hatches before heading back here to track the storm by Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So Ray have you booked your flight back to NJ yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 i get them through vista... Ah ok. Are you able to state where the majority of the ensembles go? Like Delmarva or NYC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So Ray have you booked your flight back to NJ yet? While you guys are getting washed down river or blown away, I'll be telling high schoolers about how wonderful it is to major in meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 While you guys are getting washed down river or blown away, I'll be telling high schoolers about how wonderful it is to major in meteorology Good for you! Be sure to black out those Accu-years when talking to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I kind of knew the GFS finally went crazy when I tried to load up NOAAs GFS page and it crashed. I guess barring any major model shifts its just a question of how strong and where LF will be that are left to be answered? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wxsim has rain beginning on Sunday evening with 10.83" of rain falling here in NW Chester County by Wed AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ah ok. Are you able to state where the majority of the ensembles go? Like Delmarva or NYC area? it looks like alot hit the jersey area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ill try and get in around 2 for the euro so you guys dont have to fish the info out of the other regions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wish I had invested in a generator My wife made a run to stock up this afternoon. I'm going to hit up Lowe's after work. Better to have it and not need it (esp. with little one at home). I think tomorrow and Saturday will be bedlam if the consensus holds... Yup...chaos will begin with the evening news cycle....stocking up today, securing lawn furniture tommorow...looking for alternate places with wifes family to ride out the storm, got a tree on the NW side thats too close for comfort. Hoping this moves more towards the NYC scenario, right by woodbury creek here...although of course I want to witness the high tide lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bugalou Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I wish I had invested in a generator My wife made a run to stock up this afternoon. I'm going to hit up Lowe's after work. Better to have it and not need it (esp. with little one at home). I think tomorrow and Saturday will be bedlam if the consensus holds... I was at Home Depot today and they had two pallets in the front of the store. If you are going to get one, get it now. I have one and plan on changing the oil and testing it this evening. Also for those of you with basements, now is a good time to test your sump pumps. I tested mine last night and found my switch was obstructed. Easy fix, but that would have been bad if I did not look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Wxsim has rain beginning on Sunday evening with 10.83" of rain falling here in NW Chester County by Wed AM go long on Ark futures... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 through hr 72 the trof is a little slower compared to 0z in phasing..placement is bout dead on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 this should be a little further north through hr 84 is sphasing but at a slower rate than 0z..hr 84 bout 150 miles or so east of cape fear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Starting to think things are clustering maybe near NYC/LI as opposed to the earlier southerly EC solution. That can change of course but the part of me that says "screw rain, I want to see big wind" would've liked to see the southerly track just to see how strong the winds would get. Jersey always gets ripped off wind-wise. Maybe that's good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hr 90 its fully phased and due east of hse...also looks to be a little slower than 0z which may be why it looks lessed phased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Sounds like we are honing in on a NYC-LI blast from most guidance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The full run is out on ecmwf.int...looks slightly west of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 hr 96 sub 960 neading nw towards mouth of del bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 So it sounds a little more North landfall-wise this run? Went from Wallops island, to OC MD, and now mouth of DE Bay on subsequent runs, correct on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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