chubbs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 06 GFS ensemble mean has shifted SW. Now close to Euro ensemble mean - 974 mb off N NJ - heading inland. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensemble850mbTSLPUS120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm wondering when the store & gas panic starts - generators, water, batteries, food, etc. My guess is tomorrow unless a radical OTS consensus materializes somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 If I loop the Euro...its identical to a hypothetical fantasy storm I put into my Hurrtrack (free with TWC hurricane VHS tape) software when I was in Jr high.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Storm surge numbers. Is it really predicting 2.2' surge already by 6Z Oct 29 at Cape may??? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&type=both&stn=njmay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Looks like the 12z NAM is slightly more west on this run. So close to the euros forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HPC goes all in....not waiting for GFS op to cave anymore... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012 VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012 ...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... PRELIMINARY UPDATE... DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY. THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One thing I notice with OP Euro run, We in the philly area wouldn't see too much rain. Most of the QPF stays on the SW, SSW, W area of the low.... Also, I'm contemplating doing a snow chase in the mountains of W PA. Anyone in?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 One thing I notice with OP Euro run, We in the philly area wouldn't see too much rain. Most of the QPF stays on the SW, SSW, W area of the low.... Also, I'm contemplating doing a snow chase in the mountains of W PA. Anyone in?! well thats relatively speaking. We still get 3-4 inches of rain. We just dont get the 4-8 on the western side. But with being on the eastern side we exchange less rainfall for higher damagin winds and higher storm surge and worse coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC 5 day track to just off Jersey shore 8am tuesday, headed for NYC....HPC/NHC now on board for high impact event for Mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC 5 day track to just off Jersey shore 8am tuesday, headed for NYC....HPC/NHC now on board for high impact event for Mid Atlantic Forecast strength 70 mph. High impact event seems likely now as models continue to trend in that direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm wondering when the store & gas panic starts - generators, water, batteries, food, etc. My guess is tomorrow unless a radical OTS consensus materializes somewhere. Well... I did just warn my dad that, worst case scenario, power could be out for a week or two so make sure you have enough gas for the generator (and cars) to last that long. If that matters to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 NHC 5 day track to just off Jersey shore 8am tuesday, headed for NYC....HPC/NHC now on board for high impact event for Mid Atlantic I wouldn't say it's headed for NYC, but more probably the central Jersey coast. It will likely be moving NW at that point. Sensible weather won't be all that impacted though. What's 50 miles among friends. The trend though is that the Mt Holly forecast area has the highest probability of getting the landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 storm is still 3 days away....and i'm drained already. :-/ funny how most people commenting on the storm (on news sites) think this is all just media hype.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS is finally coming around, although not to the degree of the Euro. Phasing at 102 about 500 miles east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Just sits and spins as a 940mb monster. Actually might be heading SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Oh my! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS folding like a cheap lawn chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Another day, another more ominous briefly by Mount Holly: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFS folding like a cheap lawn chair yup. Its final capitulation was a sad state of affairs. At least we can focus on the details now rather than whether the GFS was catching lightning in a bottle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Beast ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z Nogaps continues the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z Nogaps continues the fun. not sghowing up on my screen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 not sghowing up on my screen Your browser might not like the Navy... pet peeve: i hate people who just post in-line links instead of attaching the image, sometimes its helpful to go back and look and then of course its changed or gone. /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 12Z Nogaps continues the fun. Massive hit. People who won't take this serious and think its all media hype will see in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 not sghowing up on my screen From 12Z to 18Z Monday, the storm basically goes from just off the coast of Atlantic/Ocean County to, well, the Lehigh Valley, PA. Check to see if you have any certificate errors/warnings in your browser. FNMOC is notorious for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Another day, another more ominous briefly by Mount Holly: http://www.erh.noaa....nt_briefing.pdf they need to mention Frankenstorm in tomorrow's briefing.. taking a break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Your browser might not like the Navy... pet peeve: i hate people who just post in-line links instead of attaching the image, sometimes its helpful to go back and look and then of course its changed or gone. /rant Do you hate the people, or just that they post the link? To be safe, I'm fixing it. Sorry - was in Gary Gray mode - didn't have much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 yup. Its final capitulation was a sad state of affairs. At least we can focus on the details now rather than whether the GFS was catching lightning in a bottle. now watch them all back off for 12 hours...led by the euro lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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