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Sandy/Posttrop Phase Thread For PHL Area


phlwx

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HPC goes all in....not waiting for GFS op to cave anymore...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012

...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE

MID ATLANTIC COAST...

PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND

ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S

SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH

HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO

A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.

THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE

ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO

TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD

SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,

INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE

LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC

CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

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One thing I notice with OP Euro run, We in the philly area wouldn't see too much rain. Most of the QPF stays on the SW, SSW, W area of the low....

Also, I'm contemplating doing a snow chase in the mountains of W PA. Anyone in?!

well thats relatively speaking. We still get 3-4 inches of rain. We just dont get the 4-8 on the western side. But with being on the eastern side we exchange less rainfall for higher damagin winds and higher storm surge and worse coastal flooding.

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I'm wondering when the store & gas panic starts - generators, water, batteries, food, etc.

My guess is tomorrow unless a radical OTS consensus materializes somewhere.

Well... I did just warn my dad that, worst case scenario, power could be out for a week or two so make sure you have enough gas for the generator (and cars) to last that long. If that matters to anyone.

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NHC 5 day track to just off Jersey shore 8am tuesday, headed for NYC....HPC/NHC now on board for high impact event for Mid Atlantic

I wouldn't say it's headed for NYC, but more probably the central Jersey coast. It will likely be moving NW at that point. Sensible weather won't be all that impacted though. What's 50 miles among friends. The trend though is that the Mt Holly forecast area has the highest probability of getting the landfall.

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Your browser might not like the Navy...

pet peeve: i hate people who just post in-line links instead of attaching the image, sometimes its helpful to go back and look and then of course its changed or gone. /rant

Do you hate the people, or just that they post the link? To be safe, I'm fixing it. Sorry - was in Gary Gray mode - didn't have much time. :)

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