LehighValleyDad Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Thanks. Yikes if that verifies! The 18z GFDL looks ridiculous. Has our area ever experienced anything of that magnitude ....?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 15C @700mb in the western hot tower exploding. That's impressive work for any cane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 The 18z GFDL looks ridiculous. Has our area ever experienced anything of that magnitude ....?? Well, 925 mb is 27.31 inches. In terms of barometric pressure, I'm pretty sure the answer is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GGEM is back. ~940 mb at the tip of Long Island. Still 951 mb 12 hours after this image over the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012102500®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120 Very similar to 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.instantwe...SL_msl&hour=120 Very similar to 12Z If consistency always won the day, you could start evacuations on the barrier islands now. And if I had a dollar for every model run that leaves me saying WOW...I'd have a tidy pile from the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 http://www.instantwe...SL_msl&hour=120 Very similar to 12Z 940 mb landfall at Bethany. Hits at a 45 degree angle to the coast. Literally worst case scenario for Delaware Bay surge flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm not so worried about what mb this ends up as...whether it's 940 or 970...it's where the storm center tracks. Given the size of the storm in its posttrop mode it's going to be very large and wind impacts will be spread out pretty far from the center. From a wind standpoint, the Euro scenario might be worse for wind in say Toms River and Central Jersey...or even with inland wind issues into Philly and points north (not as strong as on the coast but still bad) than if the storm went in 50-60 miles up the coast. If this goes in at Bethany or OC MD it's probably worst case scenario for Cape May, Lewes, the DE Beach towns from a coastal flooding standpoint due to northeast/east fetch off of the ocean...and then up the DE bay as the water gets piled in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 940 mb landfall at Bethany. Hits at a 45 degree angle to the coast. Literally worst case scenario for Delaware Bay surge flooding. Lets say....for the sake of argument that as noted in another thread that many of the global models suffer a bias for overstrengthening strong storms transitioning from tropical to baroclinic systems....and we apply a huge 20mb handicap to these solutions...we still get a 960mb storm slamming ashore at such an angle...either here...or LI sound...or SE New England.... Thats still a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Lets say....for the sake of argument that as noted in another thread that many of the global models suffer a bias for overstrengthening strong storms transitioning from tropical to baroclinic systems....and we apply a huge 20mb handicap to these solutions...we still get a 960mb storm slamming ashore at such an angle...either here...or LI sound...or SE New England.... Thats still a big deal I just refuse to believe you guys actually see a sub-950 landfall. I mean I can't even imagine it. I want lots of pictures from everybody so I can live this through you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Lets say....for the sake of argument that as noted in another thread that many of the global models suffer a bias for overstrengthening strong storms transitioning from tropical to baroclinic systems....and we apply a huge 20mb handicap to these solutions...we still get a 960mb storm slamming ashore at such an angle...either here...or LI sound...or SE New England.... Thats still a big deal size...it will be a bigger storm too...940/960 isn't going to make much difference with a mid lat storm that will be large in size. Ida's coastal second life was only 990-992 off of Hatteras but because of onshore fetch/pressure gradient it was a bi*ch for the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro precip through 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 ] Holy Hurricane Batman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Euro ens mean bring it right into ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 6z GFS is west a tad but misses a phase. more rain around here as we get the "link" part of the storm to the trough but the storm would not be as bad as the Euro track. to put it in perspective...the heavy rain band that was over Providence, Springfield, and up into Vermont in the 0z GFS run is down across Eastern PA and NJ. it's coming closer to the Euro camp. edit: looks like the track extrap'd would bend it back into Maine, maybe near Bangor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 25, 2012 Author Share Posted October 25, 2012 This rain band sets up over us for 24+ hours...we get pwned pretty good with the occluded front in terms of rain but the worst of worst will be up into Maine per the 6z GFS. That occluded front setup on the GFS is awesome -- rain band stretches back all the way to Michigan while the 850 0 line runs roughly near DC east to OC MD. Cold enough for flurries in Virginia with a subtropical rain in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 At this point, I'm done with the GFS. It's soo inconstant. It's really hard to go against a locked in euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As JB is saying what's 600 miles between friends? Would bet many local tv casts still say Near miss is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 As JB is saying what's 600 miles between friends? Would bet many local tv casts still say Near miss is likely NBC10 is sticking with 'chance of recurve back into our area". A friend told me Channel 6 says it stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm personally eager to see just how well the models end up depicting this (well, for the models other than the GFS that is). The pressures depicted are ridiculously low. I've been told Irene's depth was significantly overestimated by the EC (I don't recall it clearly myself). Sub-950 mb lows in NJ are unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm personally eager to see just how well the models end up depicting this (well, for the models other than the GFS that is). The pressures depicted are ridiculously low. I've been told Irene's depth was significantlyt, overestimated by the EC (I don't recall it clearly myself). Sub-950 mb lows in NJ are unheard of. Ray, it def was showing 930mb pressures for Irene... But I don't think the h5 progression is the same. Irene never really phased with the cold front, just got enhanced a but. From what I picked up, this is a full phase and a barclonic enhancement toy the maximum. Seems plausible to have some type of sub 950 lp in the ma region. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bender Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 A friend told me Channel 6 says it stays offshore. Yes, they had spaghetti plots this AM (as of 5) that had the bulk towards Maine, some OTS, and two inland in Rehoboth and EWR respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 not looking forward to this at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Ray, it def was showing 930mb pressures for Irene... But I don't think the h5 progression is the same. Irene never really phased with the cold front, just got enhanced a but. From what I picked up, this is a full phase and a barclonic enhancement toy the maximum. Seems plausible to have some type of sub 950 lp in the ma region. We'll see though. While true, the models may be having great difficulty separating the two. Its extremely difficult for there to be strong extratropical and tropical forcing going on at the same time, which seems to be what the models are trying to do in getting it so far north with such a deep low pressure. John "Typhoon Tip" wrote a few days ago that this scenario was essentially "perfect" such that there's a lot of ways it can go wrong. Not sure what he feels at present, but its a good thing to keep in mind. Like I said, this would obliterate low pressure records across the area. You definitely need to be careful trusting something when its depicting such a scenario. I'm not saying its not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This rain band sets up over us for 24+ hours...we get pwned pretty good with the occluded front in terms of rain but the worst of worst will be up into Maine per the 6z GFS. That occluded front setup on the GFS is awesome -- rain band stretches back all the way to Michigan while the 850 0 line runs roughly near DC east to OC MD. Cold enough for flurries in Virginia with a subtropical rain in Philly LOL...The most silly outcome!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Well we just had a fire drill and there were many people talking about the storm out in the parking lot. Of course I heard anywhere from its not going to hit us at all to landfall in delaware.......So at least people are aware of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 GFDL is still a monster and similair to the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I'm really hoping this thing stays east. The EURO ensemble would be a disaster for our area. After last years Halloween storm and 7 days without power and 3 lost trees I dont want anything more. That said getting ready. Might be grilling meat for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This could really be asked in any thread, but I'll put it here since it's close to my region (just outside the CWA). I have not seen any mention of possible severe thunderstorms/tornadic activityin any of the discussions. Are there enough dynamics in this sort of set up to produce severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This could really be asked in any thread, but I'll put it here since it's close to my region (just outside the CWA). I have not seen any mention of possible severe thunderstorms/tornadic activityin any of the discussions. Are there enough dynamics in this sort of set up to produce severe weather? Zak (eastern) ask this yesterday in one of the threads. The answer was yes, this could kick up some tornados Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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