tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 12z euro ens are west of 0z, take it into eastern LI, but east of operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Man this is some scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 just remember people this is stil 4-4.5 days away which is an eternity in tropics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Euro can't be much uglier for NJ/DE. Wow. Yeah that's about as ugly as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Tony, what do you guys have to do in advance of a projected "High Impact Event" that will affect the CWA? When will things ramp up for the WFO? Hope you don't mind me asking.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 certainly going to catch big time attention if the 0z runs continue west...NAM appears to be on-board, although I'm not sure its going to be terribly useful covering a tropical entity but the NA features are there to make it interesting something to note maybe is that the GGEM which was gunning for the MA coast the most 2 days ago while others where heading OTS is now well east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Apparently the Euro ensembles are north of the OP. In fact the OP is an outlier. Most have the storm hitting LI then CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z NAM looks like it would eventually phase & be a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 NAM is slightly more west towards Euro. Gettin more interesting by the minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Pretty healthy storm after passing Jamaica, See what happens after Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 alright, people have to stop extropolating the nam at 84hrs or even after 60 hrs. The model is a high resolution model that keys in on facts at the present time. You alter one of those conditions even slightly the outcome is huge. Thats why you see such huge shifts with the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 alright, people have to stop extropolating the nam at 84hrs or even after 60 hrs. The model is a high resolution model that keys in on facts at the present time. You alter one of those conditions even slightly the outcome is huge. Thats why you see such huge shifts with the model. Thank you. The DGEX should be enough proof of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS is a little further east. Storm is captured late. Heading toward Maine or Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS needs to get with the program already.. hopefully at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 Thank you. The DGEX should be enough proof of this. The DGEX is aw....ful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS looks to be way later with the phase as it is farther east and now brings the storm into the Canadian Maritimes during Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 The DGEX is aw....ful. lol Hey, Metfan likes it. So it's at least got some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 18z GFS looks to be way later with the phase as it is farther east and now brings the storm into the Canadian Maritimes during Wednesday. Yep. It will be interesting to see if the ensembles still keep it west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Booming! Awesome eyewall structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 lol Hey, Metfan likes it. So it's at least got some support. someone has to champion one of the worst models out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Wow, this thing is bombing! Stolen from main thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Yep. It will be interesting to see if the ensembles still keep it west. they are west, but less of the members have hits now compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Interesting that AccuWeather's cone is so far west... http://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/atlantic/sandy-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 they are west, but less of the members have hits now compared to 12z. UH OH.......que the weenie-paranoia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 HPC 4+5 day precip prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 take with grain of salt..this model just did another 800 mile swing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 take with grain of salt..this model just did another 800 mile swing Tom, I do not see it on the map. What model is that? Edit: 18z GFDL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Tom, I do not see it on the map. What model is that? 18z gfdl, 925 like 50miles east of lewes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gfdl, 925 like 50miles east of lewes Thanks. Yikes if that verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 000 URNT12 KNHC 250026 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182012 A. 25/00:10:10Z B. 18 deg 48 min N 076 deg 28 min W C. 700 mb 2778 m D. 79 kt E. 300 deg 10 nm F. 040 deg 81 kt G. 300 deg 10 nm H. EXTRAP 964 mb I. 9 C / 3048 m J. 14 C / 3047 m K. 10 C / NA L. OPEN SE M. E09/32/18 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 0518A SANDY OB 08 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 96 KT SE QUAD 00:15:00Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB MAX FL TEMP 15 C 298 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR FREQUENT LIGHTNING NW EYEWALL INBOUND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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