famartin Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 8:30 PM, Harbourton said: Understand that we won't be dealing with a hurricane at that point, but Euro depicts winds of between 70 and 80 knots at 850 mb over parts of NJ at 168hrs. What would that translate to winds at the surface? Thanks Almost just a guess... 50-60 mph at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 8:33 PM, tombo82685 said: i could see winds to strong tropical storm force maybe low end hurricane...inland i think best would be 50-60 max...in gusts Enough for weak trees to go down and branches, this would estentailly take care of most of the leaves in the trees, then it will be time to rake the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 8:55 PM, LMolineuxLM1 said: Enough for weak trees to go down and branches, this would estentailly take care of most of the leaves in the trees, then it will be time to rake the yard. also for satellites, cameras, and antennas to.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 8:58 PM, tombo82685 said: also for satellites, cameras, and antennas to.... Lol, I knew you'd say those, my dish is secured good my cameras inside and my antennas can handle those speeds fine. So I am good no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 9:00 PM, LMolineuxLM1 said: Lol, I knew you'd say those, my dish is secured good my cameras inside and my antennas can handle those speeds fine. So I am good no worries. I would request a security walkthrough of all those devices ahead of the storm if I was one of your neighbors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Considering a preemptive weenie run to BJ's before the public goes apesh*t if this thing holds up over the next few days...I saw it happen ahead of Irene and that was a walk in the park in snj compared to the potential here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 9:04 PM, dryslotted said: I would request a security walkthrough of all those devices ahead of the storm if I was one of your neighbors... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 euro precip map for the region green 6-7 inches lgt blue 5-6 lgt red 4-5 pink 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 9:04 PM, dryslotted said: I would request a security walkthrough of all those devices ahead of the storm if I was one of your neighbors... That are fully secured done by professional contractors. So nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Rain or snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 9:43 PM, dssbss said: Rain or snow... rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Not to hype....but a prolonged period of 50mph gusts in the midst of soaking rains can wreak as much havoc as a briefer period of even higher winds...just because LI or New England might be ground zero wouldnt preclude some pwnage farther south imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18z gfs is further west and trough digging more at 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 10:06 PM, chubbs said: 18z gfs is further west and trough digging more at 92. still a miss but every model run is like 50-100 miles further west. This run you can really see the ridge that develops over the eastern seaboard is much more amplified, thus carving out a better trof. It continues to take baby steps. Interesting to see ens members again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 On 10/23/2012 at 10:12 PM, tombo82685 said: still a miss but every model run is like 50-100 miles further west. This run you can really see the ridge that develops over the eastern seaboard is much more amplified, thus carving out a better trof. It continues to take baby steps. Interesting to see ens members again. Yeah baby steps. Gets captured well OTS and curves back to hit Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 Update from Glenn: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/local/Hurricanes-Blogs-Sandy-Blog-Part-2--175501421.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 23, 2012 Share Posted October 23, 2012 18z gefs continue to remain far left of the operational with hits from delmarva on northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 GFS ens and Euro ens are very similar according to NE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 On 10/24/2012 at 12:03 AM, blinkers88 said: GFS ens and Euro ens are very similar according to NE thread yea the 12z suite for both of them...i think the 18z gefs are have more spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 As of 18z, only 3 GFS members (besides the Op) take Sandy out to sea. The rest are recurves. Also notice that the farthest south solutions, those affecting the Carolinas and Delmarva, are missing on the 18z GEFS, which is consistent with the Euro's general northward trend. I'm going to make a (somewhat) bold call and say that by 12z Wed the GFS Op will show a full recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Um, gulp? 940 off NC at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 ensemble mean is a tiny bit east of 12z on track up the coast but brings a hook on the storm back towards SNE for a landfall by 156 over CT/LI/RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 24, 2012 Author Share Posted October 24, 2012 The three hour EC on Wunderground has the storm down to sub 932 at hr 129, 138, and 141. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Who's gonna fail... Euro full phase? Or the gfs non phase....hmmmmmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 euro brings 5-10 inches of rain the region, with the most along jersey coast and in jersey...6-7 for phl and immediate metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 euro is just nasty looking, still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 Those long range Euro maps are crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 24, 2012 Share Posted October 24, 2012 I'd be interested in knowing from the Mets on here as to which set of model runs will cause them to feel more comfortable about the players on the field and the eventual outcome regardless of what the model madness shows. 12z Friday? Thursday? later? At some point, Met skill takes over when the features are known. So when is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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