phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Might as well start the thread now and get it running. Here's the 12z GFS with "Sandy" (assuming it develops) coming north parallel, but offshore of, the East Coast through next Sunday. Then it gets cut off and retrogrades towards the coast early next week in a very GGEM-type scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Might as well start the thread now and get it running. Here's the 12z GFS with "Sandy" (assuming it develops) coming north parallel, but offshore of, the East Coast through next Sunday. Then it gets cut off and retrogrades towards the coast early next week in a very GGEM-type scenario. With that retrograde, it should suck in that cold air to the west a lot sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Get ready mods.... Seems like some pseudo vortex get carried ahead of the entity, and go all mega rainfall ahea of the storm, and then, boom, the storm... Crazy solutions being thrown out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Just so log as the "storm" doesn't ruin my kids' trick or treating, it would be fun to have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 Get ready mods.... Seems like some pseudo vortex get carried ahead of the entity, and go all mega rainfall ahea of the storm, and then, boom, the storm... Crazy solutions being thrown out there. Personally, I think a Noel scenario where it parallels the coast but doesn't retrograde is probably more likely. The cutoff is pretty epic...very anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 If it were to verify as shown right now, it would a memorable system, that's for sure. It most likely won't, but as I said in the banter thread, it's definitely one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 euro at hr 156 is already a good bit further southwest with sandy. Has hvy rain into coastal southeast and inland about 50 miles. While 0z had the rain about 200 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 This is definitely coming further west. Sandy is already starting to phase at h5 with the trof coming in from the west at hr 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 phased at hr 168-174, very hvry rain over eastern carolinas to dc....sand about 250 miles southeast of hatteras...its forming that pseduo like low to the nw of the center which is causing the extensive hvy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 hr 180 very hvy rain from northeastern nc to lehigh valle... .75-2 inches in 6 hr period. sandy is about 75-100 miles ne of hatteras sub 980 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 good lord, sub 976 storm making or about to make landfall over chincateague va (sp). very heavy rain in the dc metro 2-3 inches in 6 hr period.. from phl to scranton on west to laurel highlands another .75-1.75 in 6 hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 hr 192 is a sub 980 right over abe... very heavy rain still over the region. another .75-1.5... laurels getting smacked with 1.5-2.5 of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 should also say the great lakes region would prob get a good amount of hvy wet snow from this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 hr 198 has a sub 980 over rochester, ny...eastern mich to UP of mich looks to be getting hit good with hvy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 storm is now cut off over se canada...snow over laurels and prob into western pa and ohio valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 qpf totals of 3-4 inches for everyone except jersey coast where its 2-3 inches...winners (or losers) are dc to hagerstown region 5-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 lol...love the day 7 bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 qpf totals of 3-4 inches for everyone except jersey coast where its 2-3 inches...winners (or losers) are dc to hagerstown region 5-6 inches thanks for the play-by-play. Wow, what a storm if this verifies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 thanks for the play-by-play. Wow, what a storm if this verifies... for some reason my maps don't shows the deepest low pressure, the one in the sne forum someone posted has a sub 970 low around reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 lol...love the day 7 bombs. a sub 970 low is just unheard of over reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 a sub 970 low is just unheard of over reading. ...and pretty unlikely to verify. Beautiful to model watch though. Edit: lowest brings it sub 972 per SV so that sub 970 is pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 ...and pretty unlikely to verify. Beautiful to model watch though. Edit: lowest brings it sub 972 per SV so that sub 970 is pretty close. yea, its out in clown town range, but the threat of someone on the east coast atleast getting some hvy rain and some wind is growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Looks like the west based NAO will be cranking when the storm is in the vicinity. Not sure if it means anything at this time of year as to potientially setting up a blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Well, some incredible solutions being thrown out. Lots of good disco all around the boards today. Need to play this cautiously. The signal is there, for something HUGE, but let's be honest, a little bit always... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 18z GFS is a miss initially. System pushes northeast away from Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 Aleet aleet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted October 21, 2012 Share Posted October 21, 2012 gfs never really phases the incoming trof with sandy until she is past bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 how much for Bermuda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted October 21, 2012 Author Share Posted October 21, 2012 a piece of the energy does retro back into the trough and dump rain on I-95, New England and Upstate NY for Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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